DL: Talking about the advancement of defensive metrics, Bill James recently said, "The only difference between our ability to evaluate defense and offense, at this point, is confidence." Do you agree with that?

JZ: Well, Bill James is a [whale] of a lot smarter than I am and he’s got an enormous amount more experience than I do, but I’d have to read the entire context of how he said that in order to be able to interpret it exactly.

SSI Kibitz:  ::blinks::

We tolja this Zduriencik dude is secure in what he does.   Slap me silly.  Imagine, say, Mike Hargrove saying what Zduriencik just did.

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In truth, nobody is "a whale of a lot smarter than" Jack Zduriencik is; there's a certain amount of sincere humility he's showing there.  Some people, we're sure, are a little smarter than he is, such as Marilyn vos Savant, Christopher Langan, and James.

Still, we know exactly what Zduriencik means:  you sit six guys down in a room talking baseball with James, any six guys, and James will be dominating the discussion within five minutes.  Through sheer force of intellect.  We've seen it happen (online).

It took an organization as secure as Boston's to even hire Bill James, because not that many people are even eager to be around guys like him, in the workplace, we mean. 

Back to Zduriencik's intelligence ... having tried to de-code him for a while now, I'm firmly convinced that he's legitimately genius-class (IQ >140).  If Capt Jack weren't technically 140+, he'd be functionally 140+.

Being a 140-whatever, IMHO, he instantly recognizes a 180-type (James) when he sees it.  It's pretty tough to differentiate between 140's and 180's. 

It's my blog; I'll write what I want and you can't stop me. ;- )

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BP Q:  What about elite scouts?

Capt Jack A:  (Gotta quote this one...)

There is so much said about the understanding of the swing (template - DrD) of a hitter or the understanding of a hitter’s confidence and there are also the instincts of a scout who really gets it. He sees the body type and he sees the things that the player does, like how he hits in certain counts.

He sees pitchers’ deliveries and how they use the stuff they have (within their template - DrD). What is the difference between a really good pitcher and one that should be a really good pitcher but isn't there yet? What is it? Is it adjustments? Is it the ability to use his stuff?

(Jack also cheerfully admits that, despite being a scout himself for 25 years, he still sits and listens to better scouts explain the game to him.  Zduriencik is just unbelievable in his confidence.)

SSI Kibitz:  Zduriencik's question right there -- "what is the difference between a really good SP and one that should be, but isn't there yet" -- is the kind of 3rd-order thinking that comes naturally to him.

If Edwin Jackson jelled, but Brandon Morrow didn't, precisely why was that?

You'd be surprised how many folks just kinda give up on the ball at the warning track there, go, "well, some pitchers jell and some don't.  PECOTA shows a 40% probability..."

Zduriencik attacks the question of, Why would an Ian Snell or Brandon League have big years in front of them or not? and Z picks people's brains about exactly how they answer that.

This is the Jamesian approach that SSI so admires -- find the templates, find the precedents, and then use intuition to place a player within that template, up or down.

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