Q.  So if Ryan can OPS+ 75-80, he's a mediocre player?

A.  If he can OPS+ 75-80, he's a good player.   NOT a mediocre one!  Remember:

An 75-80 hitter, who's a whiz with the glove at SS, pencils out to a league-average player

BUT

Every* manager in major league history wants this player.

There is something invisible (to stats) going on with the Gold Glove, 75 OPS+ shortstop.  Managers treat them as well-above-average players.

.................

The problem with Jack Wilson was not that he OPS'ed 75-80 and played a great short.  It was that he didn't.

If he had done so, he'd have been a major plus to the 2009-10 Mariners.  Brendan Ryan might pencil, via WAR, to a +1.0 or +2.0 wins player ... but actually be a sine qua non for a good ballclub.  A guy who makes winning possible.

Could be.  Lotta managers would say so.

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Q.  Nishioka is a bat-first SS, right?

A.  As you know, there is no blog in America more friendly to the NPB ballplayer than is SSI.  But if I'd known that the Mariners could trade Maikel Cleto for Brendan Ryan and his paltry salaries, even I'd have preferred Ryan.

After sifting the input from Taro, IceX et al, you project Nishioka to about .290/.360/.410 (his career NPB line) in the States, if all goes well.  Which it probably will.

It would be awfully sweet to get a .360 OBP from SS, but even Nishioka's fans concede that his defensive transition is going to be dicey.

So I might eyeball the two SS's this way, on paper:

Nishioka:  0 to +10 runs above league average, offensively

Nishioka:  -10 or -15 runs below league average if he can stick at SS

Ryan:  -15 to -20 runs below league average, offensively

Ryan:  +10 runs above league average, defensively

............

Nishioka:  =0 runs vs. average AL shortstop (with another +10 runs upside, granted)

Ryan:  -5 runs or so vs. average

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Q.  So Nishioka's better than Ryan, right?

A.  Right, by maybe +10 runs a year ... if he sticks at short.  That's on paper.

On the field, you've got a very solid-feeling team captain in Ryan, and a jittery-feeling SS in Nishioka...

And Nishi is going to cost what, $8M per, all told?   I'm no beancounter, but give me 90% of Nishioka for free and guess which one I'll choose.  ... another way to look at it:  I can have Ryan, plus Mark Reynolds, for the cost of Nishioka.

And, you've got G-Money's point about the ossification of NPB players in Seattle.  Ryan synchs with the Franklin/Triunfel Plan.  Nishi didn't.

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