...Wakamatsu's players *LOVE* him. I wondered if there was the possibility that Wakamatsu's "belief system" paradigm this spring might turn the club soft...too many guys being given too many chances to foster a system of trust in the clubhouse and get guys to like him. Instead, we saw Yuniesky Betancourt powerflushed because he wouldn't play hard, we saw time and time again, pitchers arrive, succeed once through the league, gets their butts kicked thereafter and get demoted. We saw Carlos Silva - a man who gets a lot of BS thrown at him because his contract was unwise (I believe him to be a basically decent human being, much-maligned for his lack of physical trim, but a guy who really does want to do well for his team) - get handed only 5 starts before bieng power-flushed. We saw the explosively popular Ryan Rowland-Smith axed after *ONE* start when it was clear he didn't have the stuff (and then, and only then, did RRS admit that his arm hurt...LOL)
How did Wakamatsu DO that?? How did he play Mr. Nice guy and then make roster moves like a hard-ass??
==== $90M Salary For Him, Then? ===
Billy Martin improved his first five teams by an average of +20 games per season. Yeah, he did this five separate times!
His rookie year managing, the Twins went from 79 wins to 97.
His first year with the Tigers, they went from 79 wins to 91.
His first year with the Rangers, they went from 57 wins to 84.
His first year with the Yankees, they went from 83 wins to 97.
His first year with the A's, they went from 54 wins to 83.
...........
In other words, it wasn't a coincidence. Once could be chance; two could be a coincidence. The third time, it's up to us to open our minds to new paradigms. But five consecutive times?! Billy was unreal.
Usually Billy didn't have the luxury of major adds to his roster, either. Bill James wrote that Martin was far, far more valuable than any on-field player in baseball. +20 wins is worth, according to modern Benson/Tango theory, between $90 and 102M.
Billy Martin's worth to a team calculated out to $100M in his first season there. If you could find free agents that would add 20 wins to your team, sabermetricians would cheerfully sign off on $90,000,000 in yearly salary for them.
Of course, Billy wore out his welcome, and quickly. Men don't wear well under shrill leadership. But that doesn't change the fact that Martin proved his capacity for single-handedly turning losers into winners, instantly.
And if we find the elephant tracks in the snow here, friends, then we assume that more than one elephant exists. If clubhouse atmosphere (among other factors!) drove +20 game turnaround for Martin, then it happens in other places, too. Maybe to smaller degrees.
...........
In 1993, Lou Piniella arrived, single-handedly forced his 25 players to look the other 25 players in the eyes, and the Mariners improved from 64 wins to 82. Lou pulled a Billy in 1993, both theoretically and on the real plastic in the Kingdome.
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The 2009 Colorado Rockies started 18-28 under Clint Hurdle, and then went 74-41 under Jim Tracy. I don't follow the NL; maybe you guys can tell me what the story is there.
But as James says, the vast majority of all huge baseball turnarounds occur simultaneously with managerial changes. The Rockies had 18 wins and 28 losses under Hurdle; they won 18 times and lost 5 times in their first 23 under Tracy.
..........
Don Wakamatsu and Ken Griffey Jr. did Billy and Sweet Lou better than that: the Mariners improved by +25 full games. They went from 60-102 jokes of the league, to an 85-77 team that cheerfully kicked the Angels, Rangers, and Yankees in the man region before they went home for the winter.
Of course, it's easier to add 20-25 games to a 100-loss team than it is to add that many wins to a .500 team. :- ) Billy took .500 teams to 95 wins instantly; he took 100-loss teams to just over .500. That's what Wok just did, that second one.
In terms of simple math, that's a cash value of $100 to $125M to whoever taught the Mariners how to win. Do we even remember, here, that we had a 102-loss crew here?
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Did Billy take 100-loss teams to .500 ... and then to 95 wins in the second season? Well, you look it up. Billy's hysterical pressure didn't wear well. The awe-inspiring thing is that Wakamatsu accomplished this with a style that does wear well -- and so he is in position to attempt to cascade his successes.
It's not a homer call at all to make Wakamatsu the manager of the year. Other guys did a good job managing; Don Wakamatsu reinvented a ballclub from loser to winner, in his rookie season. He did what Billy used to do, and without being a short-timer jerk.
Amazing.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
There are certain personalities I've been around with sports coaches, fatherly types. Jim Mora's kind of like this. Torre is. I've been cut off sports teams by this kind of guy, and watched them cut other guys. I've had them grant me, or not grant me, advancement belts.
They care, a lot, and they're professional, sympathetic, and firm. You know that they are realistic, and you know they are right when they cut you. And it's just hard to be mad at them, because they're straight with you, and you think they're smarter than you are.
You just accept that you shouldn't be on the team, or have the brown belt yet, or whatever.
Very few guys have the knack.
A little off-topic here, but about Martin's players feelings about him, I know Rickey Henderson loved Martin. His quote after breaking Lou Brock's steals record: "Billy Martin was a great manager. He was a great friend to me. I love you, Billy. I wish you were here."
And last year I talked with Mike Pagliarulo. He had good things to say about Martin too. My guess is that if Martin didn't like you, he might try to destroy you, but if you got along with him, accepted his attitude, and were inspired by his approach, you might benefit significantly from his intensity and game knowledge.
Art Fowler, of course, being a lieutenant who defended Billy through thick and thin.
Of course it doesn't take 25 guys to stage a mutiny... who was it, Casey Stengel who said the secret to managing is to keep the 5 guys who hate your guts away from the 5 who are undecided? :- )
Billy didn't care about the 5 undecided... or the 15 who liked him, for that matter... he just cared about bases gained and lost...
BTW Arne, where'd you meet Pags? What's your impression of the guy?
I talked with him by phone for about an hour a year ago, after writing some articles for the Dugout Central site he started a couple years ago. I've seen some web things blasting his evaluation abilities, and I certainly haven't examined that issue a huge amount. But I tend to give ex-players a lot of credit in judging players, regardless of how saber-literate they are, because no matter what terms they use, they know more than others do about what's actually happening on the field.
I discussed the '95 season with him too-he was with the Rangers that year-and Ichiro, and he was certainly quick to declare his company's ability to judge Japanese players; said they knew Ichiro would do well over here at a time when there were a lot of Ichiro skeptics. He didn't talk down any of his old teammates or managers, seemed to be an upright guy. Obviously he's a baseball lifer.