Seattle Sports Insider

Bienvenudos (and James Paxton Shtick)

Posted by

8/11/11

....

Around August 2, we got a traffic spike, an extra 2,000 hits a day or so. Turns out that on Geoff Baker Live!, the Times' reporter mentioned SSI offhandedly. Our admins were curious as to why we had a bunch of traffic coming off a Google search for Seattle Sports Insider :- ) (If you're curious, it's about about the 14:00 mark of the third embedded video on this page.)

Slap me silly. We knew the man had listeners, but a 10-second mention en passant, and we get 2,000 a day?! If I'd have known that he holds the keys to the gates of life and death, I'd have been sending chocolates and flowers a long time ago...

Nah. All y'all are well aware of my fondness for Geoff's

Readiness to powerflush an inside source, if that's what it takes to tell the truth
Feel for what's important in the clubhouse and in the lineup
Respect for competitors, willingness e.g. to jump on SSI and defend his Lueke position
etc etc

Be that as it may, the article he referenced was this one, Video Game Chiang which is ... not mine. *laughs* G-Moneyball followed up on a Taro catch. If you like Chiang, here's an article on the implications of his Eastern League rout.

=== Welcome New Readers ===

If you're just joining SSI, this mini-series on James Paxton has some info-tainment on a pitcher who will be the Mariners' Michael Pineda of 2012. (Well, pretty much.)

Paxton, contrary to the consensus, is in reality going to be in the Mariners' rotation, April 2012 and has a good 70-80% chance of making the same splash that Michael Pineda did.

SSI and Mariner Central readers have been hip to Paxton's 2012 arrival since Lonnie Mathis poached this video in spring training.

Other features, such as on Nick Franklin, Trayvon Robinson, Casper Wells and Charlie Furbush, are collected in the top right section of your Mariners Hard Rock Cafe. ;- )

=== @ Think Tank ===

If you didn't catch it on TV, Pedro Grifol commented on Paxton a few days ago. His current report on Paxton?

Throwing 91-98 (!) with a "plus-plus" fastball and "plus" curve
M's insisting he work on a change
Will arrive in the majors quickly

Coming from Grifol, that is scoutspeak for "C.C. Sabathia velocity," as opposed to Mark Mulder velocity. Paxton is apparently just blowing away high-minors hitters with straight fastballs, first and foremost. That is ominous with a capital O. High-minors hitters usually fan on breaking balls, not fastballs.

With James Paxton's mechanics and command, you are starting to talk about Sabathia as the appropriate comp here.

SSI readers will be aware that I'm not thrilled about the emphasis on a 3rd pitch -- it merely takes away from his feel for his overwhelming FB and hook. Sabathia himself did not throw a 3rd pitch until his third year; you could look it up on Fangraphs.

Anyway, for the Faithful, SSI just upgraded the Paxton stock. I thought this guy was a very high-percentage bet to be Mulder. Looks like he's a serious threat to be more than that.

Cheers,

Dr D

Comments

Extra pitches

Jeff, I always enjoy your viewpoints. I agree about the emphasis on the 3rd pitch. A good fastball and hook at that MPH can be very sufficient. He will learn as he goes, especially with his gifted talent. But it always amazes me how these guys can be so good and have not a plus change up. It shoud be a core pitch at early age before any curve is ever thrown. But guys like Paxton dominant from youth so had no need to throw the change up. To most, the change up has been looked at like a slower fastball which just allowed the lesser hitter to catch up and get a cheap hit due to the bats. Oh but that changes with uniform change in the bats.
In the coming years, with not so lively bats, kids at lower levels, I believe, are going to start to learn how to throw the change up as coaches are forced to rediscover small ball, pitching inside...things that have been forgotten in the era of live bats. It will be interesting to see the trends of pitchers in the next few years. Maybe nothing. But I think guys like Paxton have to be licking their chops!

Bug hitting the windshield

Ya Jeff ... the syndrome you are thinking of is so common ...
Kids with phenomenal talent are used to getting by, just being so much more gifted... coaches try to talk to them about the next level and some of 'em ain't interested...
Comes the day they hit a level of O.B. where the 93 fastball up the ladder just ain't enough, and then they can't cope. Some never recover.
***
Very, very VERY special talent required to be able to blow off the craftsmanship part of the game, like, Randy Johnson special talent...
***
It sez here that Paxton is in that class. But the point's going to be moot, since he's workin' the change anyway...
What is your take Jeff on Paxton's ability to corral the entire three-pitch arsenal quickly, and command the change in the zone (or at least keep it rea low) ? Considering his mechanics, his K/BB in college, yada yada?

Neyer / James book

By the way, after cataloguing almost every MLB pitcher ever to come down the pike ... most of them in great detail...
James and Neyer summarized with an EMPHASIS that a starting pitcher does not need three pitches IF:
He has two exceptional K pitches
He has one historically-great pitch
Colon and Schilling, for example, had plenty of early years where they just moved their fastballs around the zone. Colon's returned to doing that in his old age: he threw fully 90.0% fastballs for the Sox in 2009 and is throwing 82.9% this year for the Yanks.

Paxton's a work in progress...

Who's demolishing everything in his path.
7 innings tonight (another career high after last start's 6.2). 10 Ks, 4 hits leading to a solitary run, ZERO walks.
Last 4 starts:
25.1 IP, 4 runs, 14 hits, 36 Ks, 4 BB. Can a prospect who's already breaking the sound barrier on his exponential climb to mastering his repertoire and getting to the bigs actually kick in afterburners? Is that possible?
I don't see how he's not a top-50 prospect on everyone's lists at this point. He and Mike Minor are very similar lefties, and Minor (#7 pick in Paxton's original 2009 draft, btw) had a comparable year last season, which netted him BA's #37 overall prospect. Even Michael Pineda didn't scorch AA quite like this (though it was close). If we wanted to trade him for the moon, we could probably get a few comets as throw-ins...but I'm ecstatic to see him in teal next April.
I wouldn't discount the effect throwing a changeup is having on his control, btw, and therefore his ability to get deep into games. Paxton was always gonna strike guys out, but he took a lot of pitches to do it. He was a 5 inning Bedard pitcher with just the two pitches, so adding a couple extra innings with control is terrific. I'm not sure if it's just the changeup, but changing his mentality might have made all the difference in the world.
I'm loving Stage 3 separation.
And nobody's gonna bring up that Paxton is destined for the pen anymore, right? That was being floated as recently as last month in some corners of the interweb. We're over that hilarious notion now, yes?
I'm stunned to have THREE mid-to-upper 90s hurlers WITH control in the system as starters. Paxton, Walker and Campos are three dynamite pitchers...and Hultzen will probably be ranked ahead of all of em.
Have I mentioned how nice it is to have a minor league contingent that can draft and coach up legit prospects?
Paxton's aimed straight at the 2012 rotation, and he's scaring me with how ready he looks to take advantage.
~G

And this is why Fister now throws for the Tigers

I find it exciting as well. Z and McNamara must really believe in Hultzen to draft him with the way the minor league strength is focused in starting pitching or they will trade one of Walker, Campos, or Paxton for a hitter this Winter that they believe in more that Rendon. I think this is the key to understanding the current M's front office; they do not lock onto their needs, they lock onto talent and do what they can to acquire it. The Cliff Lee trade was Lee for Smoak... and stuff. But here we are in August of the next year and all four players acquired (indirectly with Laffey) are contributing to the the big league club. Same thing with the Putz trade, with Vargas and Carp outplaying Gutierrez this year and Cleto bagging us our starting shortstop. Currently 1/3 of the M's big league roster (discounting short term DL stints) was acquired in the Putz and Lee trades!?!

I'm stunned to have THREE mid

I'm stunned to have THREE mid-to-upper 90s hurlers WITH control in the system as starters.

Having looked at Campos this last week, I'd really like to know how a low-A pitcher could show more than he has shown - sabermetrically, on the radar gun, etc. If Campos isn't in the top 100, no low minors player should be, perhaps ever.
He's a Pineda-template pitcher who, as you point out, is probably a tick *ahead* of where Pineda was as a teenager.
***
Four separate SP's who, if they played for a variety of teams in the AL and NL East, would all be top-100 prospects.
***
Good lines about the work in progress, getting the comets thrown in, and couple others G.
Agreed that, perhaps, Paxton's third pitch might actually improve his feel for pitching. Main reason being that he doesn't have to think about his mechanics.

8 of 25 from two trades?

Anybody remember Herschel Walker?
***
From a chess standpoint Kelly, I can particularly endorse Zduriencik's agility and open-mindedness in deploying his resources.
That's typically the key to jumping the plateau from "Class A" (85th percentile of hardcore tournament players) to "Candidate Master" (95th-99th percentiles), that very thing ...
Opportunism, "width" of play from Queenside to Kingside, fluid switching of one advantage for another ... just agility and willingness to take the victory wherever it crops up, as opposed to writing a script ahead of time and trying to force it.
That makes a clear sigma's worth of difference, the willingness to win any way that opportunity presents itself. People would be surprised how hard it is to DO that.

3 pitch

Jeff, I speak without much knowledge first hand but looking at some video, if I am Seattle I am thankful to have Paxton with pitches and would be confident that the change should come naturally with his talent. Especially in time as he learns more about pitching and how it should be used. Kidnap Greg Maddux and lock them in the same room for a week. With the change up there are so many different ways that it can be thrown and be effective. I have no doubt that this young man can get it figured out.
Do you remember the last time as an M's fan you could say there is talent on the mound AND on deck circle nearly ready to play...some already are.
Walker? Do you remember he on the bobsled?

Campos

Campos retired the first 19 batters he faced last night, taking a no hitter into the 7th. His final line: 8 IP, 2 hits, 2 ER (zero earned), 7K/0BB.
He has Pineda's early command with more heat on the FB than Pineda had at the time. I agree, if Campos - with his great control AND terrific stuff - isn't a top 100 arm then no low-minors pitcher is.
But he will be. :) As will Walker. Here's hoping for their continued health and success - or for them to bring us the perfect trade return, I guess.
~G

More on Campos

link via Jay Yencich: http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20110813/SPORTS/708139891/1006/SPORTS03
Grifol indicates he has #1 potential and #3-4 "floor" (if that's what he's saying).
Also, Nick Franklin returned to the field, finally, for the Peoria rookie league team. Went 0-for-2 and got lifted.

Hultzen is joining the #1-potential pitchers

Per Geoff Baker:
gbakermariners Got Danny Hultzen, Brad Miller, Carson Smith and Kevin Cohoes
gbakermariners Mariners did not get Cron

I really, REALLY wanted Cron. But that's why we drafted him in the 3rd round - so we can go get another Capps next year with another 3rd rounder.
Brad Miller was an important get, and I really like Carson Smith. Cavan Cohoes is a total and complete unknown, but they definitely like him. I'm exceedingly curious to see who he is.
Did about as well as could be expected. Now we'll see how well we chose our investments.
~G

I'm really happy with the draft and signings

Of course I wanted Cron because he has huge upside, but he was also high-risk so he most likely would flame out anyway. They spent money elsewhere to make up for him, giving Capps and Marlett 2nd round money and Churchill says he heard they gave Cahoes over a million dollars. He must be awfully talented.
It also should be pointed out that several draftees are already producing. Jack Marder (16th round) was doing a good job before he got hurt and 7th rounder Steven Proscia is killing it High Desert. I can't wait until BA's Prospect Handbook comes out because it looks like all 30 M's players listed will be seriously interesting for the first time ever.
Then there's Hultzen. There's been a lot of cup throwing over his pick, but I think he's definetly worth a chance and if he delivers then the M's are in excellent position to contend next year. Dr. D will be especially happy to hear this from Z talking about spring training next year (via Larry Stone):
Hey, we’ll give Danny a shot right off the bat to see what he can do, if he can make the big league club or not.

So none of the nonsense like we saw with Lincecum and Strasburg that a player has to serve his time in the minors before he will be allowed to enter a Big League clubhouse. Next April can't come soon enough.

A million buck to Cohoes...

If true, you know who else got a million-ish?
James Paxton. Nick Franklin. Steve Baron.
I figured we must have paid him a bunch for it to take til the last day, but a million is a very, VERY serious investment in a player that basically no one knew about and barely anyone knows about now.
Apparently he knew how good he was, though, and so did his agent.
I'm DYING to see more of this kid.
~G

Depth Chart

So...let me see if I have this organizational depth chart correctly (I'll list prospect letter grades for the minor leaguers who have no service time or not enough to judge return certainly and production letter grades for the established guys...and I'll leave out any and all players that will almost 100% definitely not return like Jack Wilson and Adam Kennedy):
Catchers
Miguel Olivo (C)
Josh Bard (D)
Adam Moore (pC-)
Jose Yepez (pD)
Steve Baron (pD+)
Tyler Marlette (pC)
The Rest (pF)
First Basemen
Justin Smoak (C, but likely to go up from there)
Mike Carp (B+)
Matt Mangini (pD)
Rich Poythress (pC)
Dennis Raben (pC)
Matt Tuiasosopoa (pF)
The Rest (pD - a few guys who may MOVE to first...but not there yet)
Second Basemen
Dustin Ackley (A+ - even his defense has been well above average)
Chone Figgins (F)
Kyle Seager (pC-)
Carlos Triunfel (pC)
Gabriel Noriega (pF - sorry...his card screams baseball moron with the huge CS and K/BB of over 5)
The Rest (pF)
Third Basemen
Chone Figgins (F)
Kyle Seager (pD - his bat doesn't play well at third)
Alex Liddi (pC- and his glove doesn't either)
Nate Tenbrink (pD)
Mario Martinez (pD- - 120 K/17 BB = eeeeeww)
Jharmody De Jesus (pD+)
Ramon Morla (pC- tools still there...waiting to see if he climbs a plateau at some point)
The Rest (pD+ - several potentially interesting also-rans here)
Shortstops
Brendan Ryan (C)
Nick Franklin (pB+)
Marcus Littlewood (pC+)
Carlos Triunfel (pC)
Martin Esteillon Peguero (pA-)
Brad Miller (pB-)
The Rest (pF - but we're VERY deep here)
Corner Outfielders
Ichiro Suzuki (C)
Casper Wells (C)
Trayvan Robinson (pB+)
Carlos Peguero (pD+)
Greg Halman (pC+)
Chih-Hsien Chiang (pA-)
Vinny Catricala (pC)
Mike Wilson (pD)
Johermyn Chavez (pC-)
James Jones (pC)
Julio Morban (pC+)
Jabari Blash (pD+)
Guillermo "electric bat" Pimentel (pA-)
Phillips Castillo (pB)
The Rest: (pC)
Center Fielders
Franklin Gutierrez (D - at this point I'm assuming his BABIP returns to something like normal but his power never rematerializes)
Michael Saunders (D-)
Trayvan Robinson (pA - again...plays better here)
Casper Wells (B- - his bat plys better here...will they deploy him this way though?)
Greg Halman (pC+)
Denny Almonte (pD)
Julio Morban (pC+)
Jamal Austin (pD)
The Rest: (pF - we're short on depth here if the Mariners insist on letting good players rot in LF and form a huge traffic jam so that Gutierrez can continue to drive in 25 runs per year)
Starting Pitchers
Felix Hernandez (A+)
Michael Pineda (B+ - stamina is the issue)
Jason Vargas (C+)
Blake Beavan (D+ - color me skeptical at this point)
Charlie Furbush (C - with upside potential)
Tom Wilhelmson (pC)
Anthony Vazquez (pD+ - almost got the start instead of Furbush when Bedard got traded)
James Paxton (pA+)
Danny Hultzen (pA)
Taijuan Walker (pA)
Jose Vicente Campos (pA+)
Steve Hensley (pC-)
Andrew Carraway (pC+)
Jordan Shipers (pB+)
Erasmo Ramirez (pC-)
Stephen Landazuri (cC+)
Yoervis Medina (pC)
The Rest (pC+ - MASSIVE depth here...just massive)
Relievers
Brandon League (A-)
Josh Lueke (pA)
Dan Cortes (pC+)
Aaron Laffey (D)
Jeff Gray (D)
??????????? (yes I know there are prospects below this...but...I believe the point is made that the bullpen needs to be decided from the failures in the rotation depth chart (those that are not traded away for bats)
It seems self-evident here that the club is carrying a MASSIVE surplus of cheap, young, talented pitching. Why, exactly, can't we contend next year again? I mean look at that raft of pitching depth...holy cow! How can we NOT manage to trade for a couple of young, team-controlled bats with all those outfield and pitching goodies we can offer?

Couple missing persons...

3B - Francisco Martinez (pC+/B-?) - I'd probably slot him in at #4
RP - Shawn Kelley (B) - in Tacoma on rehab 7.2 innings, 9k 1BB. He goes above Laffey and Gray.
Add in prospects like Stephen Pryor, Carter Capps, and if our PTBNL in the Fister trade is Chance Ruffin, toss in another three pA- or so.

- Ben.