...first of all...they traded Wallace because they think he can't play third and they have about eleven billion first baseman in their system. That's also why they non-tendered Cust. They can't afford him when they're going to have a bunch of guys gunning for first and need DH as a landing spot for one of them.
Second of all...going to Oakland won't help Beltre hit. it's no better on righties than Seattle and has huge foul territory. I am remembering Beltre fouling a lot of high flies off toward right on those sliders when he did make contact and they're going to get caught in Oakland.
...third of all...Oakland has no hope IMHO of running down the Mariners or Rangers in the AL West (notice i didn't even mention the Angels, who I think are about to run into a brick wall and disappear from elite status). Oakland's prospects are not impact prospects...what makes them highly regarded is their high probability of producing SOMETHING in the big leagues...not their high upside. They've got quantity and not quality. Pennington and Buck and Taylor and whatnot aren't going to save the As' offense. Which is still rather lame. And won't get any better by adding Beltre. They have a pair of good pitching prospects and then a whole slew of mediocre prospects no more exciting than Saunders or Balentien.
Shandler does provide an important insight re: Beltre that I hadn't really noticed...the injury swarm has indeed begun and there is little reason to expect it to go away...bone spurs come back most of the time. ESPECIALLY in the shoulder.
Also...Beltre may not actually be 31...like many Latin players he is too good in his early years for me to believe he really was 17-18-19. I am betting he's actually 34 and KNOWS he's actually 34.
Per MLBTradeRumors, the A's are very interested in Beltre. They would need for him (and Boras) to scale back his $10-15m per season price tag, for something designed for 'an Oakland economy sized package.'
The catch-22 is that if Beltre accommodates Oakland with a value contract, at that point San Francisco, Detroit, and St. Louis are supposed to be interested.
Odd that the A's, with a hole at 3b, would deal Brett Wallace and then start arguing with Boras about the degree of Beltre's career downslope.
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=== Transition Year ===
If I were Adrian Beltre, and had just hit a grand total of 8 home runs, I'd be thinking in terms of one year in a hitter-friendly park -- and then a killing on the FA market.
Everybody, and I mean everybody, knows that Beltre is one of the greatest defensive specialists in the game. Soccer moms on the Oakland chat board know that Beltre's mitt is his calling card.
So why wouldn't you play one year in Fenway or Wrigley or someplace, hit 30 homers, and then hit the free agent market sizzling?
The answer could be in the "agony startin' to pile up,'" as Rocky put it to another Adrian. If your body were starting to unravel like a K-Mart sweater, you might well be interested in locking up your last $30-40m right away, rather than taking $8m and hoping your body held out. $30-40m is a lot of dinero...
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=== QOTD Dept. ===
So WHY. In the WORLD. Would Adrian Beltre be interested in declining arbitration?!
He'd have made what. $13m for one year? And now he's talking to Oakland about far less than that?
Scott Boras is not known for miscalculation.
And I don't buy the conspiracy theories here: I've never heard of MLB teams cutting back-room deals, "hey we'll offer arb and you decline it."
Even if Bud Selig would enable teams to cut sham arb offers with their players to score draft picks from rival teams .... why would Scott Boras allow his player to float around in the sky with an arb-pick anchor attached to his shoe?! Scott Boras would agree to hamstringing one of his FA's to do a team a favor? C'mon.
Cognitive dissonance.
Only thing I can think of: that after those long, painful years in Safeco, Adrian was just too sick-and-tired of the place to return for even one more year.
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=== BaseballHQ Dept. ===
Shandler's take on Beltre:
- At 31, is more into his skills-decline phase than people realize
- 4-year decline in AB's -- signalling injuries that will get worse, not better
- Reasonable production possible if he gets large AB totals, which he won't
- 270/310/425 line, 4.4 runs per 27 outs
Which is another interesting, 30,000-foot perspective that had eluded us in Seattle -- we're pretty much caught up in analyzing the effects of Safeco and of his "temporary" injuries and not much addressing the question of whether he's shortly going to be over the hill.
That makes a lot of sense. Beltre, when 17-18 years old, was way too good for his stated age... A 4-, 5-year contract is extremely problematic for Beltre.
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=== Dr's Prognosis Dept. ===
For me, Beltre going to Oakland would be just about the ideal outcome.
This guy is a genuine pleasure to watch, both defensively and on a personal level, and if he went to Oakland, we'd get to see 19 games' worth of his exquisitely beautiful defensive play.
While, IMHO, not having to worry about his setting us back in the standings. Beltre is fun to watch, but IMHO doesn't do a lot at this point to help teams win. What he gets you on short-hop snags, he gives away fishing for strike three with two men on. Hey, it's just my opinion.
In Oakland, we'd get to see Beltre's ballet-like Hot Corner work 19 games a year. And we'd get to see Ian Snell and Doug Fister ring him up three times a game :- )
Cheers,
Jeff
Comments
I disagree with notion that teams offer arbitration w/o a clue as to what the answer is going to be. Based on my observations, I think that this not only happens routinely, but that like so many aspects of the whole MLB life cycle - everyone is in on the inanity of it all.
Exactly how far the process goes in the vincinity of collusion? (shrug)
In point of fact, it could be Boras himself who suggests that the club offer arb, just so he can turn it down. If Beltre's value (given his '09 - AND the current market), is only 10.7 million, (based on Fangraphs), but '09 looks like a depressed market. What can Boras do to potentially push up Beltre's "perceived" value? Well, getting his current club to offer arb helps - creating one team who ALREADY has shown whatever the minimum salary reduction allowable is for the player.
As a type B, it also 'gives' something to Seattle (goodwill) which actually costs Boras nothing. (More complicated for situations where the signing team loses a pick - but still possible).
The question here is not "did both parties know the answer to the arb question before it was officially filed?" The real question is did they AGREE to this arrangement?
You could have Boras saying, "No, we won't accept arb." Then turn around and after it is offered, renege and enter the arb process. But, that's a card you get to play only once, after which nobody will trust your answers.
There's all kinds of levels of knowledge here. Me? I think it is naive to believe that the clubs offer arb w/o any clue as to what the response is going to be. If Beltre only gets 8 million -- did the declined arb offer help or hurt his cause?