Seattle Sports Insider

Bedard's 2010 Compensation, 2

Posted by

2/10/10

=== Fangraphs Dept. ===

Anyway, still going back and you want to compare Harden's, Sheets', and Bedard's ROI per the $/WAR paradigm, let's look at Bedard's last three seasons, their actual value, and what he'd make on his contract:

2009: $8.6m actual 2010 value, b/ 15 starts, 83 IP, 120 days - $3m salary
2008: $4.9 ACV based on 15 starts, 83 IP, 120 days - $3m salary
2007: $11.0 ACV based on 14 starts, 91 IP, 120 days - $3m salary

If Erik Bedard came back for the 2nd half and fanned 8-10 men per game, he'd get $3m salary for doing it. And he'd pitch the playoffs for nothing (well, except for his playoff bonuses.

...............

Here are the figures based on 4-5 months', not 3 months' pitching, assuming that Bedard just barely makes his incentives at each level:

2009: $12.3m actual 2010 value b/ 20 starts, 125 IP, 120 days - $4.45 salary
2008: $7.0m ACV based on 20 starts, 125 IP, 120 days - $4.45 salary
2007: $16.5m ACV based on 21 starts, 125 IP, 120 days - $4.45 salary

=== Bonus Pinball, Dept. ===

How much would 4-5 playoff starts matter, compared to the 12-15 second-half starts that preceded them? Do sabermetrics allow for "leveraged" situational performance? :- )

Bedard's "unpaid" playoff performance might easily be worth as much to the franchise, and city, as all of his 2nd-half starts combined. So you can multiply the above 2010 values by 1.5x or 2.0x in the World Series scenario.

Bedard might be worth, effectively, $15-20m to the franchise and city, if he blows away the Red Sox and Yankees this October. And he'd make $3.0m for doing it.

=== Dr's Diagnosis dept. ===

Even based on the stringent $/WAR paradigm which is inappropriate with respect to Bedard's idiosyncratic case -- he would, in a good season, make about 30 or 40 cents on the dollar. And about 50 cents on the dollar relative to Sheets and Harden.

Jack Zduriencik thinks about the playoffs a lot more than $/WAR does (which is not at all).

When the M's load up for their first playoff series, and Felix-Lee-Bedard have the Indians' GM crying for the commish's office to change the rules of baseball (as occurred in 1995), Zduriencik will have anticipated and created that moment.

What salary paradigm are you going to create, that captures the moment we all enjoy after a Bedard win in the playoffs?

................

Earlier, SSI wondered why there was absolute radio silence this winter on Erik Bedard, and wondered if it were a college-football-hide-the-recruit-in-a-hotel syndrome. As it turns out, there was no news because Bedard directed his agent to do nothing until he knew whether he could come back to Seattle.

I am sitting here in stunned silence :- ) just boggling at the way Zduriencik combines hardball dollar negotiations with dazzling personal skills, to recruit top-drawer talent for pennies on the dollar.

In the F-500 world, Zduriencik would be worth his weight in gold for this particular combination of skills. The two best GM's I've ever seen in this regard are (now) Zduriencik and Pat Gillick.

I don't care about small variations in the salary -- I care about how desperately Erik Bedard wants to pitch here. I couldn't be more thrilled. The best part is, if and when Bedard wins a World Series for us this year, he'll want to be back in 2011-13.

Good show Capt,

Dr D

Comments

Perhaps we've all learned something. :)

Everyone quietly wondered why we didn't play aggressively for Harden or Sheets. Many Ms fans criticized Zduriencik for being players for each and then ultimately letting them land on AL West rival teams for what seemed like fair market value. I assume Zduriencik was proceeding with the knowledge that Bedard would like to return to Seattle if he couldn't get a sub-market deal for one of the other high risk arms. That's knowledge we the fans didn't really have.
Which would you rather have...Bedard for 130 innings at 4.5 million dollars...or Sheets at 8.5 million dollars for maybe 160 innings...or Harden for 140 innings optimistically at 7.5?

What really boggles...

is that the M's made Harden a cut-down offer. Suppose he had come here!

Good article, as usual Doc.

Our offense is still lousy, but I could see Bedard singlehandedly 'carrying' this team into the lead in July forcing the Big Bat acquisition we've all craved (I'm looking at you, Prince Gonzalez). It's not likely he'll do so, but if he did come back in May as he hopes, that's just a monstrous 1-2-3 to have to face in ANY series, especially the playoffs.
One thing you have to give Erik, even if you despise the guy as a human being and a pitcher (which I most certainly do NOT), is he'd pitch with his brachial artery spraying blood all over the 1B side of the diamond if it meant advancing his team in the playoffs. This is a guy who is, as you say, as fierce of a competitor as we've seen in Seattle.
Regular season, he'll pull himself from a game if he's hurting (which probably means currently enduring more pain than you and I could handle without a morphine drip), but I don't see pain standing in this guy's way when all the marbles are on the line.

Zduriencik, Good to Great

The other thing Z embodies is humility. You hear it in every interview he gives. He talks about how he constantly thinks about his duty to the fans, how he knows how emotionally invested they are in the team. How the new training regimen for the minor leaugers is just him doing his duty to the organization and to help the kids reach their potential. How he appreciates fans' support so far but they haven't done anything yet and they don't give out awards for the hot stove league. Etc.
Not that I ascribe too much to any one business/leadership book, but his character is that described by Jim Collins in 'Good to Great' as a, IIRC, 'level 5' leader. Ruthless decision making, based on a) the cold hard facts, and b) the good of the corporation above all else. Humility and deflection of praise is the natural reaction to receiving it.

Which is exactly why

his peers like to deal with him, IMHO.
We all remember Jim Take-a-Bowden coming at Pat Gillick having told the city of Cincinnati how he was going to take Gillick to the cleaners...
.............
Zduriencik has mentioned on the radio, that there is an element of GM's (six or eight?) who are out to rip you off and brag about it later. He said he gets offers on the phone, politely hangs up.... and then looks around his office, "Are you ready for THIS one?!" to general laughter...