I didn't watch the game, but did quickly peruse the gameday pitch results, as well as the comments at LL and USSM. I thought it was funny the number of comments stating that his slider was a meh pitch when the hitters were consistently swinging and missing even when the pitch was in the strike zone.
Generally, I think the average viewer (I'm thinking of myself here) has trouble assesses two critical features of a pitch -- deception and late movement. It is easy to see that Bedard has a great curve ball, but to my eyes Felix also has a great curve. The results, however, (via fangraphs) show Bedard's curve to be a great pitch and Felix's to be merely good. My point is that earlier breaking pitches often look impressive to my eyes, but they must be easier for the hitters to track and therefore are consequently less effective. Pineda's slider doesn't have hugh break, but must have a decent combination of late break and deception, or he wouldn't have achieved the results he did. Just food for thought.
It looked like the umpire wasn't giving Pineda the bottom of the strike zone (Not sure if it was the umpire in general of a rookie zone.). My guess is that rather than buckle down and battle the Brewers and the umpire for his 75 pitches he stuck to his plan and continued to pound what was in fact a small strike zone. If I'm Pineda's coach I sit him down with Erik Bedard because he never gives up a part of the strike zone, largely independent of the umpires zone.
Q. Pineda threw 22 consecutive strikes to start the game?!
A. GameDay is up. Read it and weep.
Of Pineda's first 22 pitches:
- 20 went on the board as strikes
- 2 were called balls, and both were questionable calls
The first pitch to Braun, GameDay shows as borderline, but on TV the catcher didn't move his mitt on a first-pitch setup. This was one of the "balls."
The first pitch to Kottaras in the 2nd, thigh high middle of the plate. GameDay records it as a blown call.
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Q. So Pineda was throwing a strike .... literally every pitch. Is that why they looked like they were "sitting fastball"?
A. Right. They were sitting strikes.
Look ... you ever hear a pitching coach say, "He got too much of the plate on that 1-2 pitch" ?
With two strikes, the hitter is defensive. Will it be up? Down? Off the plate? A sucker pitch? The hitter's got to launch his swing, and check it if the ball's WAY off the plate.
Then if the pitcher throws one down the middle ... he's throwing it right onto the hitter's bat.
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Or think about why pitchers get hurt on 2-0, 3-1 counts. ... the suspense is gone. The decision to swing is made before the pitch (if it shows up in a location, you swing).
Pineda was making the Brewers' decisions for them, before the pitch -- by advertising that every single pitch was a SWING AT ME pitch.
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Q. The decision whether to swing is most of the energy a hitter expends?
A. Lemme tell you something about baseball you never realized. A baseball pitch is coming through a VERY SMALL AREA.
A pitch comes through an area about the size of your computer monitor. If you know whether to swing, it can be a verrrrry easy game.
Hey, I can go to a cage and hit 95 fastballs if I know the ball is going to be there when I swing.
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You weren't seeing hitters sitting fastball: you were seeing what happens when a pitcher throws 100% strikes.
Easiest problem in the world to fix: a pitcher throwing too many strikes. Pineda will learn to throw sucker pitches.
Friend of ours, Lindy McDaniel, sums up all of baseball pitching in one sentence:
Go into the plate, and then go OFF the plate.
On March 16, Michael Pineda abandoned half of what gives a pitcher control of the battle - the more important half. And still got 22% swinging strikes.
It was a strategic error, not an error of talent or craftsmanship.
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Q. Any corroboration on that?
A. Only from, er, Michael Pineda.
Baker with the money quote:
Just got done talking to Michael Pineda in the clubhouse.
Pineda said he threw "too many strikes" tonight, meaning he left his fastball up and over the hittable part of the plate. He also felt his early changeups were coming in with not a lot of movement to them
Only quibble there is in the interpretation. It says here that Pineda was referring to his failure to go off the plate occasionally, rather than to poor command.
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Q. Did Pineda leave his FB out-and-over too much?
A. Pineda did miss over the plate four or five times, but that's no more than Felix or Bedard do. Once or twice an inning is fine; once or twice a batter is not.
Pineda was definitely not leaving his FB out-and-over in a predictable fashion, as Felix did in 2008.
If he had, we'd say so. If the Brew were sitting there for those pitches, we'd say it, as we did with Felix, and yell at the M's to fix it.
But that ain't what happened. Pineda missed only occasionally, and not in predictable situations. The problem was the 3 seconds in the key ... he was living in the zone too much. The strikes were predictable, and that helps the Brewers get better swings.
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Comments
I thought it was a great outing for Pineda for the following reasons.
He was a little bit squeezed- and he dealt with it.
Pitched out of trouble- very calmly and cooly.
Probably didn't have his best location on his fastball- still tough to hit.
There was one player who gave him fits (Weeks)- he's in the National League.
Pitching on TV probably for the first time in his life- it would freak me out but you couldn't see an ounce of concern on his face.
It's Spring Training and a 22 year old rookie was throwing strikes at will- not just the fastball but the slider as well.
When I hear that he doesn't have an out pitch (due to the 11 pitch at bat by Boggs) and that is the reason to send him down I have to laugh. The issue isn't not having an out pitch it's learning how to pitch to Major League hitters. He can only get that experience in the Majors.
And that last comment is very interesting too...
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Average viewer (of which Dr. Gaff is assuredly not one) can slo-mo the sliders and can see (1) the arm speed and (2) the hitters' reactions.
It doesn't take an artist in Pineda's case. His arm speed is FANTASTIC and the hitters quite obviously have no clue that the pitch is a slider right up THROUGH their swing launches.
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As you say, Pineda was able to throw sliders UP in the zone and still get garbage swings. ... Also the double-up to Weeks in the 4th was telling.
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One thing the 'average viewer' ;- ) can watch for is the velocity of the pitch after it breaks. Mushy sliders are traveling slowly after they begin dropping.
Great sliders, such as Pineda's, show on TV as having nice velocity after the break.
Boggs was the ONE guy who fouled off some pitches on Pineda. Pineda threw to 20 batters, and one (1) extended him past 5 pitches. Oho! That's the telling AB.....
This whole 'can't put hitters away' cliche is just way overdone in general. It's a fad to watch a tough AB and blame the pitcher for not going all Randy Johnson on the hitter.
Check the SW%; that's the bottom line.