It's entirely possible that Guti's 2nd half '10 was an aberation. In fact, it is VERY possible. However, it is just as possible that Guti's '09 was an aberation, too.
So, basically (career-wise), we're looking at a .316 OBP guy who slugs .400. That's Jhonny Peralta ('10) stuff.....
Guti has two fulltime years in Seattle. He has 43 and 40 x-base hits. Essentially, he hits a doube every 4 games.
That doesn't do it.
If this is 1970 (or there-abouts) and your Paul Blair, of the Orioles years, (another glove-first CF) Then that is just fine. Not in 2010.
Guti must be better....or as doc (and I) have pointed out, the M's wasted a trade opportunity this winter.
Saunders will hit like Guti....perhaps quite a lot better. He will field a bit worse.
But...Guti was worth value in return.
I'm rooting for a return to the '09 Guti. I'm not betting on it, yet.
And a glove only Guti isn't good enough on a a Mariners team that is bottom-of-the-barrell offensively.
UZR is very nice...but not every run saved (theoretically) is equivalent to a run produced on a team that can't win becauwe it can't produce runs.
Moe
Q. What did Guti hit last year, again?
A. In the second half, he hit .230/.269/.332.
The 1977 Mariners did not accept .269 OBP's ... but then again, they weren't held to 513 runs.
.
Q. How many runs did the expansion Mariners score?
A. They scored 513 + 111 runs. But then again, the 2010 M's didn't have access to Scrapiron Stinson.
In Dr. D's world, it does not matter how good you are (or aren't) on defense, your OBP is 269, you ain't playing.
..............
Granted, we all think that F-Gut can do better than that. But the basic idea, "Hey, his RC/game was 2.19, but he plays such pretty defense and Fangraphs has him pretty close to average overall," that's an idea we've been waging war on throughout.
ML managers since Babe Ruth have understood that there's a tipping point on offense. You can't go below it. Guys who hit like pitchers just don't play.
I'm not alone in this, guys. I've got a million historical managers behind me. Pretty defense and terrible hitting doesn't work.
.
Q. Yeah, but he showed up on WAR as +1.9. That's pretty close to average.
A. That WAR includes some pretty theoretical defensive contribution. It's not gospel. People shouldn't take as much comfort in "+2.0 WAR" dogma as they actually do.
A man can show +2.0 WAR on Fangraphs, and be a bad player. And contribute to 100 losses.
.........
In this specific case, the deception may be rooted in the phantom +10 UZR that I think all CF's, including enemy CF's, receive when they play in Safeco.
.
Q. Is Guti worth a 4/$20M contract?
A. Sure. Get him healthy and hitting decently, and he's a valuable player at that salary. That's just stating the obvious.
SSI's crystal ball says that he might not be healthy and hitting decently. Until some point in the future that is later than the end of that contract.
.
Q. The point being what?
A. That the M's may have (invisibly) scored yet another position upgrade for 2011.
Cool Papa Bell has doggedly refused to abandon The Mick's career arc. Hopefully we now get to see some vindication for that judgment...
SSI, since Saunders' first games as an M, has predicted a 3,000-AB career for Saunders, with an UP scenario of 30 home runs some day.
This being spring training, we now get to indulge the hope that some day will be soon...
.
Q. Is SSI basically UP or DWN on Michael Saunders?
A. For once, Dr. D is at a loss for words...
Usually you can get a decisive thumbs up (David Pauley, Doug Fister, Shawn Kelley) or thumbs down (Ian Snell, RRS, Casey Kotchman) from us. But Michael Saunders, I can well visualize the way DWN or way UP scenarios, either one.
What we do know is that Michael Saunders is an uncommonly DYNAMIC young player.
He's saturated with physical talent, even well beyond that of most other ML-ready outfielders. He's a cruise missile in search of a guidance system, and his attitude is tremendous.
So he is worth some investment time. He'd be a fun player to follow.
.
Q. What's the dream scenario?
A. That Saunders starts hot, like he is right now, and is hitting .270/.360/.500, or so, after a month's time.
And after Saunders is entrenched, then Guti and he share a 2-position platoon with Bradley, maybe with a revamped Ryan Langerhans, and Eric Wedge can get about 9,000 AB's worth of the platoon advantage this year.
Don't want Guti kicked to the curb. But SSI's gig is the Billy Beane job share, 9 players to fill 5 positions.
The M's do that this year, they'll have a chance to fake an offense.
.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
Typos=Yuck
doube=double, your=you're, becauwe=because.
Did I miss any?
Hey Doc, its been awhile. Love your bottom line take about the offensive needs... It's getting harder to talk baseball with the ever-widening fangraphs sect. There are realities they just don't get. Anyway, since the M's defied me by not spending any capital this off-season (to their peril, I'm afraid) thereby punting a season so spectacularly it would rival the glory days of the 70's and 80's, we are left with looking to a future, and Saunders had better be a part of that.
If the stomach issue isn't going away with Guti, it opens up the gates for another implosion.
Saunders' swing adjustments need to be for real or you might be looking at RL production at a position where we were counting for 4 Ws.
Cross your fingers on Saunders.
Ya, there are realities that some don't get, and don't want to get.
Think that they've already accomplished objective A, rivalling the 1970's, and we can only hope that the looking to the future objective B comes off as well...
You and I have both been around long enough to see some young clubs suddenly come up with a handful of hitters all at once, though not in Seattle...
Come July, if Smoak, Ackley, and Saunders are banging, as they conceivably could, a lot will be forgiven...
Ouch, that was harsh Champ...
But I think the M's are organizationally fearful of the platoon and the sense of 'instability' it gives. Though it is a proven tool with many other teams, the M's have never really gone with true platoons in any sense of the word. They tend to stick with super utility and switch hitters in the bench slots, and I haven't really seen any indication that it has changed at all.
With regard to Guti, I have to say that if the stomach ailment is the root cause of his slowdown, then I'd have to put as a down year candidate every year until someone can figure out a proper diagnosis. Should have traded him last year...!
Either guy should be able to produce offense equal to or better than Gutierrez. Saunders could do it by producing more power, Langerhans with OBP. Defensively, obviously, neither is Guti. But, in 2010, Guti wasn't even Guti, but he didn't make any errors, so that's something.
Saunders is probably the best upside potential offensively, so on an offense starved team I believe we're better off with him in CF than Gutierrez.
Definitely they have always used cover-your-backside Swiss Army Knives on the bench, rather than Earl-style specialized weapons...
If Langerhans be the 4th OF, though, this may be a bit different in the outfield. It doesn't really risk your bench to start one OF over the other, that I can tell...
And not sure WAR is good for much in CF in Safeco...
I see only good things happening here. Baker thinks Luis Rodriguez is in. Now I'm not about to get all giddy about the last bench spot, but the Z crew had to see something that backs up last year's improvements. Enough to give up the cozy blanket of Josh Wilson anyway.
So it looks like Sweeney, Wilson/Tui, Byrnes has turned into Kennedy, Rodriguez, Langerhans. Can't hurt.
Saunders is a AAAA prospect and is the next Jeremy Reed. Loads of potential and no follow through.