Just stream-of-consciousness, not POTD. :- )
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=== "Sample Size" of One Dept. ===
I don't know if we're going to spend the next three years using Richie Sexson as the scarecrow to keep all of those nasty FA buzzards away. But just off the top of our heads, here:
1. Adam Dunn is lefthanded. I've heard that matters in Safeco. Jack Zduriencik seems to think that is an important factor.
2. Richie Sexson was a fairly extreme groundball hitter. Adam Dunn is a fairly extreme flyball hitter. You're not talking about similar swings here. Dunn isn't a topspin guy.
3. IF Adam Dunn had exactly Richie Sexson's age-arc, he'd have three (3) great seasons followed by a dropoff. Dunn is a year younger than Sexson was, when signed.
4. It is open to question whether Sexson was demoralized, over the course of 2.5 years, by Safeco and by bad luck (remember Sexson's .210 BABIP's). The jury is out as to whether Sexson will bounce back, as Jeff Cirillo and other Safeco refugees did.
Dunn of course has many similarities to Sexson: for one thing, he's very tall. He has that in common with Frank Howard and Dave Winfield, also. But whereas Sexson was tall and lanky, Adam Dunn is about 270 lbs. You know you're not talking steroids on this dude.
After you sign Dunn you could go get Hagrid for 3B, though his cap would fly off worse than Felix’.
Dunn fans a good 165 times a year — but also walks 110. (Jay Buhner, in his prime, averaged 160 and 100.) Dunn up there stalking the pitcher, trying to get one pitch a game that he can get some really good radio interference on. In Earl's words, "once every 13 AB's he's doing a whale of a lot to win me a ball game."
Turn that “Hit It Here” neon arrow back on, Rick.
Dunn is an extreme Three True Outcomes player. The Seattle blog-o-sphere is subconsciously biased against these players: Jack Cust was a case in point. TTO's feel unreliable. They aren't, really. They control their own destinies.
baseball-reference.com, using match criteria that compare favorably to PECOTA’s, came up with this set of comps for Dunn at 25 years of age:
Darryl Strawberry (927)
Reggie Jackson (926) *
Jose Canseco (918)
Troy Glaus (909)
Tom Brunansky (902)
Juan Gonzalez (901)
Boog Powell (901)
Rocky Colavito (891)
Tony Conigliaro (890)
Harmon Killebrew (883) *
SLAP me SILLY, Padna.
Nowadays, after Dunn's age-28 year, these are the comps. Here they are, with their futures from age 29 on:
Sim Player From To Yrs OPS+
+---++-------------------+---------+--+----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+----+---+----+
Adam Dunn Was not playing, is not playing, or has not yet played at this age.
920 Darryl Strawberry 1991-1999 9 120
906 Jose Canseco 1994-2001 8 125
902* Harmon Killebrew 1965-1975 11 143
895 Rocky Colavito 1963-1968 6 124
889* Reggie Jackson 1975-1987 13 131
867 Troy Glaus 2006-2008 3 122
865 Tom Brunansky 1990-1994 5 97
861 Barry Bonds 1994-2007 14 199
859 Roger Maris 1964-1968 5 116
859 Boog Powell 1971-1977 7 129
859 AVERAGE 1971-1977 8 139After you throw out Bonds and Brunansky, the other guys averaged 7 years x 135 OPS+ ... starting with Dunn's next season.
What can you confidently take from this set of stats-generated comps? We'll spend a separate post on Dr. D's own rationale on Dunn comps. For now, let's just say that b-ref.com's set of comps is at least as good as the set of comps that reads "Richie Sexson."
For now, let's also notice that Adam Dunn has done things that are similar to what Harmon Killebrew and Reggie Jackson did -- not things that are similar to what Chris Shelton has done.
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=== SMILE When You Brush Me Back, Meat ===
You know, there is honestly something to say about bringing the biggest men to a sports contest. … We remember a Mariner quote from the time, regarding Canseco and McGwire and Parker, and Stewart. It was Chuck Armstrong or Alvin Davis or Jeff Smulyan or somebody who said, "When you play those guys, they are intimidating. They are large men, and they can back that size up with performance." Seriously.
I realize that to commentators who are not athletes, this will sound silly. But some of you have gone out to play in a slo-pitch league, or whatever, and in some game or other you looked over and the other guys looked like they should be on TV or whatever ... and right there, you started wondering whether you could win. It MATTERS. It doesn't matter as MUCH to guys playing 162 games, but there is still the "bully and customer" aspect on the human level.
I'm not arguing that you should go get Adam Dunn because he's Frankenstein. I'm just saying the guy's a load.
I'll go the season tickets to the Hit It Here Cafe. And bring a hard hat and safety goggles. The Mariners would be more fun than Mariner Central on July 31.
BABVA,
jemanji
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