Q.  How does Reynolds compare to other TTO hitters like Dunn, Thome, Cust, and Branyan?

A.  I don't like that he's righty.  I'm not enthused about TTO guys who bat right.  

It helps the TTO hitters' white-knuckle games to ----> have the platoon advantage 80% of the time.  They're skating on thin-enough ice without battling the platoon.

.................

Reynolds has somewhat worse of a BB rate, and EYE, than the other TTO guys (not than the other ML guys).  But then, he's younger, too.

He walked 83 times and fanned 211 times last year.  :shrug:  That's fine.  He's turning 27.  Odds are with the house that the ratio will improve as his career ages.

He could be Rob Deer and fade right here.  Odds are against it.  Cust was also written off because K's were "over the borderline."

.................

Reynolds is also different in that he's a ballplayer, not a Big Donkey.  He can play a position, he can run, all that kind of stuff.

Just to sort of triangulate him, you could think of Reynolds as a more-TTO version of Michael Saunders, if Saunders had ever hit 44 home runs for us.  

(Quibble anticipation: in a full season last year, Saunders woulda had 70 BB and 170 K, rather than 83 and 210.  And Saunders is faster.  But imagine if Saunders had done that, and hit 44 homers.  Eh?)

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Q.  Is Reynolds better or worst than Cust, his 200-K symbiote?

A.  There's a lot to learn here, in my opinion:

• Cust fans almost 200 times a year; Reynolds strikes out a little more than that.
• Cust walks 100 times a year; Reynolds walks 75 times a year.
• Cust gets you 6.4 runs a game; Reynolds gets you 5.7 ...
• But Reynolds has done this in his early 20's, when Cust was still years away from the majors.

You think that Jack Cust his ownself, at 23-26, would have played better in the majors than Mark Reynolds has?

QED. ;- )

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Q.  Can Reynolds hit AL pitching?

A.  Like we say, Reynolds and most TTO guys, short of Thome and Dunn, are mistake hitters.

If you don't think AL pitchers make many mistakes, steer clear.  Jack Cust did okay.

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Q.  What if Reynolds pulls a Rob Deer or a Gorman Thomas and you're stuck with $12.5M?

A.  That could definitely happen.

Deer produced 5.2 and 4.1 runs per 27 outs when he "fell off the table" at 27.  Figgins produced 3.6.  You could argue that Reynolds' walks and homers are a bit of a stoploss on the RC/27.

Or not.

Reynolds is a gamble, but in roto, I'd take him middle-of-the-pack among 3B's.  A little higher than that.

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Part 3

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