I ....... need an easy run

I do ... with a bat ta lend

I do ... think you fit this crew

I do ... and your outcome's true

...........

They'll take advantage and

They'll hang you out to dry

But they won't get you every night

No they won't get you every night

 Threeeeeeeeeeeeeeee. Runs.

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Q.  Could Mark Reynolds help the Seattle Mariners?

A.  Hm.  Lemme bust out the 64-processor motherbo'd for this one.

Runs created per 27 outs, 2010 Mariners

• 5.7 - Ichiro
• 5.3 - Branyan
• 4.6  - League Average
• 3.9 - Franklin Gutierrez (3rd-best on the traveling squad)
• 3.6 - Bradley
• 3.6 - Figgins
• 3.1 - Kotchman
• 2.8 - Lopez

Mark Reynolds' RC/27 lifetime average is 5.7 so far, as he has aged from 23 to 26, on this scale of 1-to-Pujols.

Nah, I agree with you puppies.  I'd say he's beneath us, too.

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Q.  Yeah, but he's getting worse, right?

A.  Actually his macro trend is that of growth.

You think that at ages 23-26, Jack Cust would have played better than Mark Reynolds has?  At 25 and 26, Cust was having truly discouraging years.... against AAA pitching.

He got better.  Recognizing pitches is helpful to pitch-stalking, it says here.

Q.  Why the .198 AVG in 2010?

A.  Take yer pick, Sherlock:

1. Diamondbacks panicked at his early K's and made him change his swing midseason
2. Was beaned flush in the head with a 94-mph fastball, and took zero (0) days off third base
3. Played with various injuries including a bad quad and SPF-150 skipper glareburn after every whiff
4. BABIP, .340 every previous year, was .250 that year
5. Elementary, my dear Watson:  you look for camoflaged saber finds like this one
6. All of the above
7. None of the above

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Q.  At what point do the strikeouts reach the danger zone?

A.  BaseballHQ has tracked this over the years the way that Keith Olbermann tracks Fox News. 

HQ used to posit that you needed a certain CT% to succeed, but the longer they study it, the more they DON'T worry about any CT floor (or K ceiling).

What HQ does worry about, is that once a hitter's K's go over (say) 200, his franchise is going to yank him out of the lineup.

K's are a playing-time concern.  Not so much a performance concern.  If a guy can produce 5.5 runs fanning 225 times a year, well, that's 5.5 runs a game. 

The Mariners averaged, um, 3.5, kiddies.  A hitter who can change the scoreboard would be a nice change of pace.

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Part 2

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