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I still think Fister is going to be hittable overall...+1 H/9 above his team rates and a little bit of gopheritis. But there are pitchers who run 100-110 ERA+s with that kind of line.
... A's 0, part 2
Q. Can Doogie execute like this consistently?
A. He can't throw 3-hit shutouts consistently; neither can Cliff Lee. But I actually think that Fister can execute better pitches than this, on a game-in, game-out basis.
What I mean by that, is that Fister only threw 22-of-100 pitches offspeed. 78% fastballs is wayyyyyyy above the AL average -- and Fister is a change-speed guy.
Of Fister's 22 offspeed pitches, 18 (!!) were strikes. I didn't see a single one hit hard.
.................
Granted, his FB location was solid by his standards, and his 73 change-curve was easily the best I've seen him throw it. Mercy sakes alive, maybe he's developing as a pitcher. Could that be the case at his age?
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Q. Did the park save him?
A. Nothing was hit to the warning track. Zero balls. There would have been 0 home runs in any park in the American League. The one deep fly ball was to straightaway CF, and did not get to the warning track.
The A's weren't belting the ball foul, weren't getting line drives snagged, weren't having balls caught on the warning track. They had three hits and ... do you remember any great plays by defenders? Well, MB had a nice throw home in the fifth.
Doogie will give up dingers, about 1.2 probably, but in this game, no. Safeco was a nonfactor.
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Q. You liked the mound presence, eh.
A. Best part of the ballgame. Not only was the rhythm a joy to watch, the body language... when the ump would blow a call, Fister would eagerly call for the ball back, anxious to attack with the next pitch.
When a pitcher responds to annoying missed calls with thanksgiving and good cheer, you know his head is in a beautiful place.
Fister grabbed the ball and threw it, knowing he owned the place.
.
Q. Did Rob Johnson have anything to do with it?
A. Each game that rolls by, the suspicion grows that Rob Johnson is doing good things behind the plate.
Am not sure why many national sabermetricians strongly prefer to believe that there is no such thing as catcher impact on a pitcher's game. Am not sure what the appeal is, to the conventional saber position that calling and framing a game isn't an important part of the contest.
Johnson winds up behind the plate for an awful lot of very smooth pitcher performances. It's remarkable.
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Q. Dr's Prognosis?
A. Fister looked kind of Joe Blantonish tonight. Coupla-three years of Blantonish 110 ERA+'s will be just fine by Dr. D.
Anxious to see more -- especially to see the same Gimme-Da-Ball guy except with 30%, 40% offspeed, so as to really foul them up.
Good visual tonight, IMHO, as to what Doogie is capable of, when executing his game. Hopefully RJ is behind the plate next time round, and we'll see from here.
.
Hip hip hoo-ray,
Dr D
Comments
2
The question isn't whether he can be Roy Halladay; the question is whether he can be Joe Blanton...
As to our post-shutout celebration, you gotta factor in the amount of salt spray we've taken off the bow on this dude :- )
3
1) Not all sabes think catchers don't impact a pitcher's game. I certainly don't think that (I've made several attempts ot quantify the impacts...it's complex because it's hard to define what to EXPECT from a pitcher that the catcher is deflecting away from with his game-calling...most teams only carry two or three catchers in any given year that get significant PT so you can't really compare pitcher/catcher batteries and get a good chunk of innings for both) and I don't think Tom Tango or Bill James think that either.
2) I know you know this, so don't worry...I'm not saying the above defensively or anything...I'm just adding it to the discussion for clarity's sake. I think the reason a lot of sabes dismiss the catcher/pitcher dynamic is that they can't find it. CERA got debunked (and rightfully so) because it's a flawed attempt to capture an elusive signal, and the sabes, unable to think of a good approach, were forced to shrug and move on.
3) I agree on Rob Johnson. I think he's a world series caliber receiver already - I really do. When he starts hitting (and I think he will), it will be a nice bonus. But comparing how Fister looked pitching to Adam Moore (nervous and frequently frustrated) to how he looked today (tremendously confident)...I'd say that despite Moore's POTENTIAL to be an outstanding defensive catcher, he's not won the hearts and minds of his staff yet. In that sense, it may be a good idea to send him back to AAA to hone his game-calling, call up Josh Bard, and give 120 games to Rob Johnson.
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I like Fister...I think he's nothing more than average, but I like that in a 400 K 26 y/o non-prospect who we just need to be a solid #4/5. :)
And it's cool...celebrate and be merry...I enjoy it when you're right in a direction that is good news for the Ms. :D
BTW, I friggin' hate you for being right about Kotchman. :-p
5
I have to admit...I am seriously starting to wonder if I'm missing something about Aardsma. I keep expecting him to implode and he keeps throwing zeros once the games count. Are you wavering at all about his implosion clock ticking?
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1) Seems like it's maybe 70% of national saberdawgs who actively resist the idea of CERA.
2) For some, no doubt it's true... "prove it to me and then I'll buy it" is the mindset du jour... Believe it was James who coined the phrase, "In God we trust; all others must bring data" so am not trying to beto harsh about it.
Do think there are others who are "annoyed," so to speak, by the suggestion that there are light bulbs they don't have access to :- )
Think it was James who replied to a HBT (?) "proof" that CERA doesn't exist, by setting up a sim in which Catcher A actually had a CERA a run better -- and then demonstrating that the saberdawg's method did not detect it.
..............
On 3 ... there may be a very serious gap between RJ and Moore at the moment, agreed...
Great post.
7
As Jolderdude pointed out at MC, RJ can not hit the bendy stuff. Not sure if Anderson was throwing slider or curveball, but he was going to keep throwing it to Johnson until he showed he could hit it. Which wasn't even close to happening.
If Johnson can start doing something with those pitches, then I think we've got a very fine catcher.
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My two cents would be:
(1) According to Fangraphs, RJ had a poor year all around in 2009 (so all pitch types have lousy values) but
(2) Relative to his own performances, he had an easier time with non-fastballs... it was the heat that he had trouble dealing with...
(3) My guess is that RJ, a transitioning AAA player after all, simply came up against an overwhelming pitch (Brett Anderson's hook) and couldn't deal...
9
It was most assuredly *NOT* a problem with RJ...ALL of the Mariners were having problems with that slider. It's obviously a HELLACIOUSLY deceptive pitch...because there were, by my count NINE (!) check swing attempts, of which 5 were called swinging strikes, 1 resulted in a foul tip strike, one resulted in a foul ball banged into the dirt at the plate and two were balls. That's just BRUTALITY. Anderson's slider is Randy Johnson caliber dominant.
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including a couple from Mike Sweeney, a 5-time All-Star.
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...contact hitting gurus both.