May 2009
Posted by jemanji on 05/31/09
19 Comments
Q: What do you do with Jeff Clement? You've got absolute embargoes going on at 1B and DH island.
A:
You say you'll change the constitution
Well, you know
We all want to change your head
You tell me it's the institution
Well, you know
You better freeeeeeeee your mind insteeee--heeaaaaaad
But if you go carrying pictures of chairman Mao
You ain't going to make it with anyone anyhow
Don't you know it's gonna be all right
all right, all right
What do you do with Jeff Clement, when you feel he's ready to come up to the big leagues for good? You powerflush your paradigm paralysis, and you... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/31/09
9 Comments
Sandy, as always, provides a crunchy return of serve on the wisdom of signing Branyan. And it's a good thing, too, because it's an IMPORTANT decision for the Mariners. Either way. I'm sure their saber staff will cut this one into a googolplex pieces.
First off, Dr. D is talking a 2-year extension, plus club option with $1-2M buyout, not 3 years hard on the barrelhead. My first post didn't say that. The root cause of this error was that my first post was at 4:00 in the morning. :- ) But as you know, the secondary cause is just that my post was written by a moron.
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Q... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/29/09
4 Comments
=== RUSSELL BRANYAN, SIZZLER ===
We all know that Mr. Three True Outcomes is hitting .300/.400/.600 in fulltime play. We also know that he's got a BABIP near .400 -- despite playing in a park that devastates BABIP ...
... for most players. (Speaking of most players in Safeco, were you aware that Rauuuuuul is STILL slugging over .700?)
Our QUESTION is, how good can Branyan be when hitting in normal luck, and for how long? Is he a player you can win your next pennant with?
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Branyan's CAREER hitting line is .250/.340/.500. That's despite never getting any consistent at-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/29/09
4 Comments
=== To MORRRRRow, To MORRRRRow Dept. ===
As with Brandon Morrow's career to date, this 80-year-old song works beautifully -- provided you are a viewing it as a 4-year-old child on an ice cream bender:
The sun'll come out
Tomorrow
Bet your bottom dollar
That tomorrow
There'll be sun!
Just thinkin' about
Tomorrow
Clears away the cobwebs,
And the sorrow
'Til there's none!
When I'm stuck a day
That's gray,
And lonely,
I just stick out my chin
And Grin,
And Say,
Oh!
The sun'll come out
Tomorrow
So ya gotta hang on
'Til tomorrow
Come what may
Tomorrow! Tomorrow!
I love ya Tomorrow!
You're always
A... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/20/09
1 Comments
Geoff Baker has a very fine feel for the game of baseball. Once again he puts his finger on the most important issues that face the Mariners going forward -- this time, Felix Hernandez' competitive disposition. It goes directly towards the question of whether Jack Zduriencik and Don Wakamatsu want to build their pennantwinner around Felix Hernandez or not.
Baker quotes Felix:
"I'm not frustrated ... I made good pitches, they just hit the ball in the holes."
This comment is perfectly reasonable, unless you're interested in living on planet Earth rather than dozing among the tangerine... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/20/09
3 Comments
After the M's got Felix five runs and lost the game to their division rivals, Wakamatsu was furious. Give him credit for his professional social veneer, but his anger was palpable even on the radio.
One of the things that Wok talked about, was Felix putting little or no effort into holding runners -- and it was exactly this same frame-of-mind that had Felix grabbing the ball and throwing it without an idea. He was evidently in a lazy-brain mode.
Felix had no "pitchability" -- no capacity for, and no interest in -- throwing the Angels the pitches that might cross them up. He grabbed the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/19/09
12 Comments
... well, the moment that somebody coughs up a young player that you think you can win your next pennant with. :- )
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Sandy points out that the Brad Nelson signing could improve positioning unto an Adrian Beltre trade:
...........
In checking out his fielding stats from baseball cube, it seems that he's played 25 games at 3B during '07 and '08.
This could be a precursor move to trading Beltre.
Beltre has a resume that makes him a perfect candidate for a change-of-scenery rebirth. But, who plays third?
Well, the concept of moving Branyan over to 3B is the most obvious... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/19/09
2 Comments
=== PTI, Ackley at 2B ===
Mt Grizzly finds the idea decidedly too optimistic:
I love the optimistic angle as much as the next guy but...if the only examples that one can find where this type of move has worked are HOF-level guys, then I'm not sure how applicable it is.
Mariner Central posters reply, in the main, that you're not losing much even if Ackley cannot play the infield. If he can play 2B, you're max'ing out his value; even if not, he's still the #2, goes the volley.
True dat. But in Grizzle's defense, my argument was that you are PROBABLY looking at an infielder when you draft... Read More
Posted by becksta on 05/18/09
2 Comments
Different stadiums, albeit about 500 yards apart, I went to games of each sport in Seattle back to back to see what all the fuss was about the Seattle Sounders and if a Mariner's game was worth its price tag.
First, the fans are totally different. It is physically impossible to stand for the length of a Major League Baseball game, while the Sounders fans pride themselves on giving their team the "full 90". Seattle is known for having great fans all the way around, but I had to wonder WTF was up with all of the Seattleites wearing Red and pretending to be from Boston. Sure, "B" is for "... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/17/09
8 Comments
CrustyJuggler pointed out Gammons' report regarding Ackley's potential at second base. What gives the story traction is that Jack Zduriencik likes the idea.
If Ackley actually moved from OF to second base, that would also move him from "Player of choice, in an uncomfortable draft position, in an uncomfortable draft" to "true #1-worthy pick."
.
=== Feasibility Studies, Dept. ===
Would it take Ackley four years, or eight, or what, in order to meet our local standards for aesthetically-pleasing defense? ;- )
One historical precedent here is Craig Biggio. We s'pose it was before some of you... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/15/09
4 Comments
=== Baseball (In Seattle) Prospectus Dept. ===
It's never as bleak as it looks during a losing streak. If the M's went 1-9 all year, they'd beat out the Cleveland Spyders for most losses... hey, it was just a slump, kiddies. This team has talent. Starting with Felix and Bedard.
Baseball Prospectus' W3/L3 stat has the M's talent level as that of a 15-20 team. That's despite Beltre, Lopez, Betancourt and their catcher having OPS+ of 58, 75, 61 and 32 respectively.
The infield has literally been A+ minor-league effective at the plate, and yet the equivalent runs for and against have been... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/15/09
2 Comments
There are games we remember a long time. For Cindy and I there were ... (1) a late 70's, early 80's game in which Tom Paciorek hit a walk-off three-run shot against the Yankees' Goose Gossage (or was it Ron Davis) ... (2) Alvin Davis' callup with the Mariners, batting 6th, in which he hit one into the upper deck at the Kingdome ... you know whatuh mean. :- )
I expect tonight's game to be in that category. Down 0-4, terrible losing streak, Ichiro hits TWO homers to bring the M's back. That's got to be Ichiro's only multihomer game in the bigs -- past, present, future. My son (6'2", 240... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/15/09
4 Comments
=== Mr. Magic Closer Dept. ===
I admire David Aardsma's grit. I admire his fastball, too. But let's do notice that the difference between him tonight, and Brandon Morrow the last two nights, is luck.
If HR/F* theory be at all legit -- and it mostly is -- then a shake of the dice was all that kept Jason Bay's final drive on Friday in the park, and in a manner of speaking all that cost Brandon Morrow the game before. (A fraction of an inch on the ball, either way, is more a question of luck than we tend to realize.)
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Aardsma's RESULTS have been wonderful. I'm not throwing... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/15/09
Fifth inning, even my wife wanted to know what was going on. "That doesn't look like the same pitcher!" She was referring to Jaka's tempo, his body language, and the fact that some of his pitches were not banging off the fence.
..............
Between the 3rd and 4th innings, Jakubauskas evidently decided he was sick of backing up bases. So he:
1) Started mixing offspeed pitches in
2) Therefore found a better feel for his fastball
3) Clicked into "The Zone" as fast as you'd change channels from Oprah to Kobe
4) Started pitching as though the ball was as light as a feather
I am hoping... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/13/09
2 Comments
Q. Cyber-Seattle is talking Ackley with the M's #2. BB&T quotes a source that says that the Mariners are negotiating a contract, LOL.
Does D-O-V endorse?
A. Dustin Ackley would be the quintessential Dr. Detecto selection with the 2009 #2 pick.
.
Q. What's the coefficient of confidence?
A. Not very high. I don't know of any way for a behind-the-monitor 'net rat to get a good read on an amateur HITTER. (Gimme a vid of a pitcher, with radar readings and college stats, and it's another subject.) How are you, I, or Bill James his ownself going to tell the difference between one... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/13/09
4 Comments
You play two months to see what you have, two months to go get what you want, and two months to play for it all. -- Billy Beane
Our good bud' San-Ral has argued eloquently that the M's offense would have plenty 'nuff to back the pitching and glovework, if we'll just give it a chance...
A week or so back, counsel objected that although the OPS+ was low on the season, over the 14 days up to that point, it had rounded to about 100 for a two-week period. Encouraging, we admit, but 'tis a bit like saying Yuniesky was slugging .405 on the season but .480 the last two weeks. Doesn't... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/13/09
4 Comments
Published after Vargas' first start in 2009. -- jjc.
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Q. Boy, dat Vargas has looked purty good, hain't he? 1 run in 8.2 innings, including a great outing against all those righties *IN* Texas.
A. One of your all-time white-knuckle 1.04 ERA's. :- )
I don't know how many fly balls went to the warning track in Texas, but if even two of them had gone out, we'd be moving on to the next subject.
.
Q. You don't agree with giving Vargas a shot in the #5 SP slot?
A. I'm incredibly impressed that the Mariners are trying different things this early. In the 1980's, Bill James... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/06/09
6 Comments
=== Could the 1st-Rounders Help? ===
Lonnie with two Texas-chili-robust threads on Phillippe Aumont and Josh Fields. The idea, of course, is to replace Shawn "11 K's and 1 BB" Kelley with somebody talented.
As you know, I've got nothing against moving pitchers from college to the majors very quickly, and nothing against teenaged HS grads trying it, either. In principle, the pitcher holds the ball, and when he's ready to execute his pitches, he's ready to learn in the bigs.
In this specific case, however, I wouldn't recommend it, at least with Fields right now. From what I've seen of Aumont... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/06/09
3 Comments
Spec writes,
There is a quantum leap of buzz about Tanner Scheppers rising all the way up to us at #2 after he went four innings of no-hit ball with 6 Ks in his independent league debut. (Churchill apparently has him pegged at #2 now.)
No doubt, IF HEALTHY, he is the one guy who stands out as a clear-cut #2 overall talent. Interested in your thoughts on one or both (with Vargas - jeff).
Love Jason's emphasis on the pre-majors analysis that he is such an expert with. Kudos to him for alerting us all to the possibility that Scheppers will be the next bonus-baby Mariner.
I 'm not SUPER... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/06/09
2 Comments
SSI and ProBall are now consolidated.
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Several questions about how to post came in. We're workin' it. :- ) The new system, I believe, will eventually allow all readers to post front-page stories and has quite a few other features as well. There's always a transition, though...
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1. Under the edit window (where you write your comment) there is an INPUT FORMAT area. Open this and select "Full HTML."
2. Click "Disable Rich Text" (immediately under the edit window).
3. Click "Enable Rich Text" again (the toggle of "Disable Rich Text").
4. After... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/05/09
=== The "Human Element" ===
Stimulating, adult discussion at Mariner Central with interesting point-counterpoint on both sides. There's a lot to be said for free speech :- ) -- and we're not talking about nominally free speech, but speech which is free in spirit as well as in the letter of the law. When people are truly tolerant of others' views, you can get some very interesting idea exchange.
/soapbox
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As usual, I agree with a lot of what Billy1 says: that's a good way to put it, that's it's "part of the fabric of the game" that the umps have their own personal styles... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/05/09
1 Comments
=== Erikkkkkkk "Baseball's Best SP" Bedard ===
Bedard takes a shutout into the 7th inning. Fans seven Rangers and walks none. Has a vintage Erik Bedard Randy Johnson start.
Leaves the game tied. Does not win the game. Has a record of 2-1, 2.37 after six great starts.
That's got to be one of the TRULY frustrating things in sports -- each pitch is a separate athletic event, like a quarterback running a pass play and then throwing the ball. A guy like Bedard goes out there and throws 100 virtually perfect pitches -- and doesn't win. Once? sure. Every game? Huh.
So far, Erikkkkkkk has... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/05/09
=== Rob Johnson's Tag Play ===
My wife said that the '09 Mariners remind her of the 1995 Mariners, after Griffey got hurt, and they made their run. Every night it was somebody different who was putting the smiles on everybody's faces, and every night it was a scrub. Alex Diaz or Shooter McGavin or Danny Meyer or somebody would come up with a 1-in-20 play, and the M's would win despite being out-hit on the night...
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Permit me to wax ecstatic for a moment on Rob Johnson's circus-play tag.
Obviously, the ball hit Johnson's mitt just a fraction of a second before Young (IIRC)... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/04/09
1 Comments
Paul Emmel's call on Kenji Johjima in the 9th, that was weird on a lot of levels. For one thing, it was an easy call. For another, it went against the home team in a tight game (as the replays went up on the monitors, Emmel suffered booing for the rest of the inning). For another, it showed a total lack of respect for a team that is leading its division. For another thing, it was the kind of play on which the benefit of the doubt goes to the batter (nice try, SS, but it was just too deep in the hole, and you kinda hesitated too). For another thing, it was an easy call...
The first... Read More