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Tale of da Tape (year 1's for Hultzen types)

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Q.  Okay, so the hitters will be new to Hultzen.  They will be to Paxton also, right?  As they were to Pineda?

A.  Sure, but Hultzen's game is brain and Pineda's was brawn.  Paxton is more in the brawn department, also.
 
Time for a light bulb, gents.  In any sport, you have rookies who bring their games to the enemy, and you have rookies who bob-and-weave.
 
There is much less intuition involved in Pineda's game.  The catcher puts his mitt down and Pineda throws the ball as hard as he can, as accurately as he can.  If he does get too much of the plate, well, 98 mph has a way of buffering the pitching headache that can result.  
 
.... time for a change-speed?  Pineda whips the arm forward at 98, the ball pops a parachute at 86, right down the middle, the bat's out in front.  It's far simpler, and far less entwined with the hitter's particular hot and cold zones.  Give me Michael Pineda's (or James Paxton's) pitches and I'll get outs, right now.
 

Tale of da Tape, Paxton and Hultzen (stop da fight)

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Q.  This "Tale of the Tape" hasn't given the column for James Paxton.  No side-by-side.  Give.

A.  Remember, James Paxton came out of Kentucky -- originally -- as a classic Billy Beane 1st-round K/BB pitcher.  He had a 115/20 control ratio as a senior, only 13 games.

He took a year off, and when he came back he hit 95 mph as though he'd never missed a day.  This "rebound test" told you that his arm was much, much more special than advertised.

The mechanics were tear-inducing:  Paxton effortlessly drives his wallet at the hitter, touches the ball to his back foot, and slings the ball like David launching stones at Goliah.  Never in all his born days has Dr. D seen a LHP with more harmonious mechanics.  And the mechanics mean --- > command.

Yu Darvish - Feasibility Study, Dept.

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Q.  How would Dr. D deploy such an embarrassment of pitching riches?

A.  As Terry and we were discussing ... in the 1970's, the Dodgers developed 11 different All-Star starters in a period of 3-4 years.  That worked out okay for them -- especially long-term.
 
You pitch your best five .... and you trade one now and then ... and you give a couple of others some bullpen time ... and you let one or two pitch in AAA a little longer.  It works out, trust me.
 
If the M's added Darvish for 2012, I'd start with this assumption:

Yu Darvish - NPB's Track Record

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Q.  Do Japanese pitchers disappoint?  Does SSI concede any "lessons learned" from DiceK and Typhoon Irabu?

A.  Well, at the outset Dr. D will cheerfully admit that he's not as dead-on certain about these transitions as he (and the Boston Red Sox) were before Matsuzaka arrived.

Still, for one thing, Darvish is bigger than DiceK, throws harder, and has performed much better.  Darvish's career ERA is 2.12, compared to DiceK's Japanese ERA about a full run higher. 

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Secondly, I'm convinced that Matsuzaka's arm was fatigued when he got here.  In Y3 here, he developed serious hip and arm problems.

Bobby Valentine said about Hideki Irabu, that Nolan Ryan had agreed with Valentine that neither had seen anything like Irabu in his prime.  I wonder to what extent we see an NPB pitchers' best over here...

Darvish is 25 and, apparently, throwing at his best.  DiceK, in his last few years in Japan, did seem to have some burnout showing.  But that's hindsight.  NPB fans could remark on it more intelligently.

The Progression of Science and Scientists - Archimedes and Ichiro Dept.

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Either this .jpg is a representation of Jack Zduriencik's minor league system, or of Archimedes' electrical generator in reverse - Dr. D 

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=== Men Who Advanced Their Fields ===

Some of my favorite ancient scientific experiments...

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Eureka.  Archimedes was asked by a king to determine whether a crown was returned to him as 24K gold, or whether the smith had cheated him.  Archimedes was not to melt down or harm the crown in any way.  A puzzle that, in ancient times, not one Mensa member in a million could have solved.

Sitting in his bathtub, he realized that he could measure the volume of irregular objects through water displacement.  He could then weigh the crown against equal weight of gold in air, and then check both for displacement.

I have a friend who, today, in 2011. works on genetic mapping.  He's smart.  He is not smart enough to figure out things like that.  Neither am I.  Just because you work on amazing 21st-century technology doesn't mean that you are a greater scientist than Archimedes.

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By the way, Archimedes' "water screw" was slightly revised to develop hydro-electric generators, since you can turn the screw the other way by dropping water into it.  ... It was used in the Netherlands to reclaim land below sea level.  ... it's used in sewage treatment plants because it copes well with solid/liquid mixtures (which may be a parable for blogs that defend low payrolls).  ... they're used in fish hatcheries because they are so gentle on fish.  .. it's used as an agricultural conveyor.  ... etc.

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What is the "water displacement" of Ichiro's contribution to the Mariners, as opposed to Randy Johnson's?  Thanks to James' RC/27 concept, his Runs per Win concept, his Win Shares paradigm and those who followed him by re-casting these as WAR ...

S2S Linkage: Dunk You Very Much

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Seedlings to Stars with a writeup of Delabar.  We had said that their writeup on Campos was confusingly accurate; the article was as accurate, concise, and to-the-point as if a local had written it up.

Now, second time up, it's even more so.  This writeup is the 2nd-best available on Steve Delabar.  >:-]

They're either culling the local reports, or their writers are quickly going to be reco'nized as among the best in the bidness.  Either way, it makes their site a must-go.

Let's kibitz:

 

Many popular opinions of pitching prospects are formed from general scouting reports. While these reports are invaluable resources, they can’t always be trusted. Hundreds of minor league hurlers are credited with “mid-90′s velocity,” but very few MLB starters actually have that grade of heat, for example. It’s incredibly frustrating to hear about a pitcher with “a mid-90′s heater and plus curve,” only to have him come up to the big leagues and show a fastball that averages 90.5 mph and a slider.

When a pitcher come up to the majors, we can finally get a foolproof reading on what exactly his arsenal is comprised of, thanks to the great Pitch F/X system...

::blinks:: G-Money couldn't have said it better hisself.

Winter 2011-12 -- Import / Export Dept.

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Q.  Of those teams that did improve by +200 runs in one winter, how did they do it?

A.  By getting current players to play better.

We're speaking in general terms, of course.  ... still ... Granted it's tough to find one player to contribute +200 runs.  :- )  Is it any easier to bring in five players worth +40 runs apiece?  

In the AL in 2011, there were only 22 players with more than 40 runs' contribution, of whom the worst were Erick Aybar, David Ortiz and Josh Hamilton.  Okay, we only need to get five of those?  G'luck mate.

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