Men

Ichiro caught this one.

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=== Ichiro from leadoff to #3 ===

We wrote an article or ten this winter and spring, gingerly predicting that Ichiro would benefit from having men on base in front of him.  He seems to feel more responsibility to the team when hitting in the middle of rallies, and less responsibility toward his 200-hit geas. 

Ichiro had 0.2 WAR at the finish of the 2011 season; he's got 1.3 WAR so far this season, with 19% of the schedule completed, leaving him on pace for 6.8 WAR.  He is totally rejuvenated - Dr. Grumpy's suggestion that Ichiro's digestive health sapped him in 2011 makes sense, as always.  If you watched highlights from various seasons during his career you wouldn't be able to tell him now from any other year, except he's hitting the ball in the air more.

It's possible that Ichiro is playing so well because the team is better, as opposed to his hitting in the middle of rallies.  It's possible that he's playing well 70% because of his batting order slot, and 30% because the offense is better.  Ichiro himself went home and thought about the #3 slot all winter, going so far as to try to change his swing.  It's no accident that his flyball ratio is way up.  

You might think that it's better not to overemphasize batting order; that's fine.  You can't reasonably scoff at the idea that batting orders matter:  Ichiro thinks it matters, a ton.  Ichiro is as smart as you are, whoever you are, up to and including James and Hawking*, and as a completely separate issue, he knows hitting better than you do, up to and including Ted Williams.  If THAT guy thinks batting order is a huge deal, we might want to re-think.  Have you been in a batting order?

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Why is it that 30% of all batted balls go for base hits, and it is even true that no individual hitter sustains a BABIP outside the 25-35% range?

What is it in the nature of a baseball game that causes 25-35% of batted balls to hit the ground and fall for base hits?  If we could grasp that, we could grasp why a 25% line drive rate, with a .250 BABIP, mean bad luck, even over the course of 30 at-bats.  Here's a hint:  would as many balls fall into the sides of this Pachinko machine as would fall into the middle?  Why or why not?

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If you dropped 30 balls down a Pascal board, and they all fell into the two left receptacles, you'd say "ah, that's bad luck."  And any other explanation would be incorrect.

The thing is, you have to first thoroughly absorb WHY a ball, coming off a hitter's bat, is a Pascal's Triangle situation.  Does a hitter's bat make contact 1/8 inch higher, or lower, because he meant for it to do so?  

Does BABIP actually work?

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=== Crystal Ball Dept. ===

BABIP actually does work, and it works always.  (Within a certain range.)  BABIP always works just like it always works that Mark Reynolds never leads the league in strikeouts and batting average at the same time.  It's not a statistical trick; it's the fabric of the reality out there.

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=== Hector Noesi ===

G-Money has taken to providing postgames that echo my own observations with 96.37% consistency.  Do you think he should be more worried, or me?  Here is his own mini-postgame.  This will apparently serve as the expanded version.  You're a sports fan, so you're good with replays.  Question is whether you want fourteen replays of Adam Dunn's home runs.

Montero called for the same stripped-down Max Scherzer style attack game that he did last time around.  Fully 40 of 58 pitches were fastballs, and the rest* were changeups.  Noesi demonstrated that, as of April 2012, this is a bit much to ask also.  Montero's pitch call, and Noesi's result, is analogous to giving Tim Tebow, or Andrew Luck, a 12-play arm wrap ... and then watching the QB turn the wrong way in the backfield half the time, and get decapitated for six sacks and four picks.

If you don't shed the dude for anything else, shed him for the tempo.  C'mon.  It's fastballs low and away every pitch.  What is with the 30-second internal dialogue when it's the pitch he threw at 11 years old?  He's standing there thinking, "Oh, man.  This is going to be SOOOOooooooo fun that I just need to savor the moment ooonnnnnne more second."

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Wedge took his own turn in decapitating Noesi, yanking him in the 2nd inning with the bases empty, giving him no opportunity to finish on a stronger note.  This could be a presage to a role change.

Ichiro's relief at finally being caught by the howling mob, toward the end of the M's 513-run season?  Nah, he's just getting kaizen service at the Nippon TowerMall Nike shop

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=== Pitch of the Game ===

Bottom of the 5th, and the A's have just come back to tie it 3-3.  John sez to me, sure would be nice to answer immediately.  That's what the Rangers would do...

Ryan flies out.  Figgins walks on four pitches.  Dustin Ackley gets on base, courtesy that 60-foot backhand "flip" by a feebleminded Jemile Weeks.   Two on, one out, your #3 hitter up.

Ichiro takes a fastball for an 0-1 count and here comes the pitch of Sunday's baseball game.  Ready?  Ready? ... wait for it ...

Graham Godfrey fires a "ladder" fastball, down the middle, just a little too high.  The most tempting pitch in baseball.  .... Ichiro jumps at it, takes a 1/4 swing, and then ......... juuuuuuust holds up.  Check swing.

The umpire takes a long look and then ... ball one.  

The count will not be 0-2, baseball's equivalent of rotting flesh disease.  Or a torn ACL on the at-bat.  Or pick your metaphor.  The count will be 1-1.  Godfrey has to try a changeup, going 2-1, and on pitch four, Ichiro vaporizes an inside fastball down into the RF corner.  That's the ballgame.

...

This March, we debated whether Ichiro's #3 spot in the batting order would produce a tightened strike zone and a zippier swing.  Here is the tale of the tape:  Ichiro's Outside Zone Swing % remains ultra-low, 18%, and his SwStr% simply doesn't exist.

His line drives are by far the highest of his career, 25%, and he's hitting very few grounders.  That may be a bad thing in isolation, but there is no doubt that Ichiro is approaching the game differently.  That's a fact.

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Q.  How did Millwood do it?

A.  With guts and guile, knowledge of the hitters.  With a rawhide-leather elbow ligament that can still cut the fastball gloveside after 37 years (counting from the first time he chucked a rubber ducky back out of his crib).  And with a daring game plan to take the Rangers up in the strike zone, tempting them to go after pitches juuuuuuust a little too high to get on top of.

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Q.  He took the Rangers UP in the zone?  In Texas?  A better strategy would be to flush his wallet down the toilet.

A.  Especially Beltre, but really all (or most) of them.  Dig the location chart:

That old man's still got a lot of hair on that fastball.  And you remember the scenes in Wild Bill, the Jeff Bridges one, where he wades into saloons and starts blazin' away against nine guys?  You just saw the AL West metaphor for it.

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Q.  He can still cut the fastball, y'say.