Men

The Tenth: Ji-Man Choi?

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=== Up To Speed, Dept. ===

Lonnie of MC gives the following Executive Summary:

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Some of you may have heard of Ji-Man Choi, and some of you may not have. No matter, I planned on rehashing his story for you all anyway...

Back in the summer of 2009 a group of Seattle scouts attended a pitching demonstration in South Korea by a High School pitcher with the name of Seon Gi Kim. Catching him that day was converted third baseman Ji-Man Choi. The Mariner scouts liked what they saw from young Seon Gi Kim and signed him to his first professional contract. The kid behind the plate also impressed the scouts and he too was signed with little or no fanfare.

Both young men started their professional careers in the Arizona Summer League at Peoria. Seon Gi Kim ran a high ERA, but impressed a lot of folks with his periphials.

Meanwhile, Ji-Man Choi was doing something that no one expected; he was killing the ball. While in Arizona as an 18 year old Choi ran a .378/.459/.541/1.000 slashline. He showed a phenominal batting eye with his 27/39 BB/K rate.

Since he was so new to catching the M's brass decided to move him into the position slowly, so he spent that first year in Arizona playing 1b for 29 games, and catcher for 10. The combination of his defense and his offense got more than a few of us excited about the possibility of actually having a catcher who is a complete package.

Late in the 2010 season Choi was given a surprise promotion all the way up to A+ High Desert where he played 1B and DH. In 50 plate appearances he went from an interesting and exciting player to a bona fida prospect. While with High Desert Choi put together a slashline of .302/.380/.442/.882. Not many 18 year old kids can make the transition from the Arizona Rookie leagues to the uber competative A+ Cal League with such aplomb.

Based upon his performance in 2010 a lot of us were really excited to see where Choi would end up in 2011 and if he would be a full-time catcher or not. Gordon (G_Moneyball) and I saw Choi in ST in March of 2011 and were gidddy to see him walking around in catcher's gear. He looked about as good as any kid could look in the early stages of ST and when we both left we felt that for sure that Choi would break camp with either Clinton or Everett, but it didn't work out that way...

Sometime during the later stages of ST in 2011 Choi started to experience pain in his back. I don't have all of the particulars, but such was the pain that Choi did not play a single game in 2011, and in December a broken bone in his back was discovered (again, no details). Choi had two screws and a metal rod placed in his back and was shelved for several months beginning in 2012. Finally, sometime in March/April he had the screws and rod removed and was allowed to start practicing and begain playing baseball in earnest when he was assigned to Clinton.

Choi made his 2012 debut playing DH on May 19 and went 2/4 with a double and a ribbie and hasn't slowed down much from there. So far in 2012 Choi has played 30 games at 1B, and 27 as the DH. Through the 57 games that he has played in, Choi has put together a slashline of .306/.421/.497/.927 in a predominantly pitcher friendly league. Choi has a batting eye of .653 (.500 is the baseline for a good prospect. Anything north of their is gravy.) with 32 walks and 49 K's. He has a walk rate of 12.3%, which is bloody awesome, and a strikeout rate of 18.85% which is just as awesome.

The issue at the moment with Choi is will hit for enough power to be a legitimate 1st baseman. So far this year he has hit 12 doubles, 1 triple, and 8 homeruns. His isolated power(slugging - average) is .191. If he is able to keep this sort of production up then, yes, he can be viewed as a legitimate 1B.

It's too bad that Choi will most likely never play catcher again. As a catcher, his potential was off the charts.

Lonnie

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That'll do for us too.

Grok'king the Capps Conversion

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Sez Taro,

Would love to see Capps in the rotation. Even if you shave 3-4 mph off, hes going to be one of the hardest throwers in the game. He could be a better SP prospect than Walker, but hidden due to circumstance and perceptive age arcs. You never know.

Then go out and do your own Fister deal with those excess prospects.

Sez Terry McDermott,

I like the idea of Capps starting, too, but I don't think it's something that is likely to happen. I talked to two people in the org about this - one a player and one who would be heavily involved in the decision - and both said the same thing: right now he can't control his breaking ball consistently enough to start.

Almost half (48%) of his off-speed pitches this year were called balls. Doesn't mean he can't learn to control it. He's just never had the need to throw it much.

If you were to neon-flash those two super-poster light bulbs in alternation, what color would you get? The one that says "Capps does indeed look like he could be a Chris Sale or Alexi Ogando. But the M's would laugh at such an idea at this point in Capps' career; it's kind of a naive suggestion."

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Q. Do you think TJM's sources represent the consensus?

A. Now that he mentions it, I'm sure this is EXACTLY the way that the dugout looks at Carter Capps, and I'm 100% positive that it would become the #1 factor in any conversion talk.

ARod's Splits against .... Karma

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Fangraphs stepped forward about 1.5 bases (out of a possible 4) by hiring Jeff Sullivan. There's no telling where the dude will take that site -- and they don't even know it yet.

He takes on the ARod catastrophe with his usual light touch and flexible mind, and immediately runs into a classic sabertista (MGL, Oct 18 at 6:12 pm) who takes offense to the use of any "evidence" that isn't (1) mathematical, and (2) to his liking.

Evidence is defined as "something that gives a sign or proof of the existence or truth of something, or that helps somebody come to a particular conclusion." Synonyms, according to the Bing dictionary, include "indication, sign, signal, mark, suggestion, or proof." If Dr. D hears a sabertista say one more time that "THE ENTIRE ARTICLE IS ASSERTION WITH NO EVIDENCE WHATSOEVER", he's going to ... he's going to ... ::splutter:: he's going to ... um. Blog about it. ::sheepish::

Four Seconds

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RP's winning the Cy Young

On May 29, James commented on the NL Cy Young race:

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if the season were to end now, who do you think would deserve the nl mvp &cy young?

Asked by: bill byrd

Answered: 5/29/2012

David Wright and Aroldis Chapman.

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Notice that he said "Deserve," rather than answering "Who do you think would win." Here's a terse little reply on Rodney from September 2:

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Do you think Fernando Rodney could win the AL Cy Young?

Asked by: bill byrd

Answered: 9/2/2012

Yes.

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And now for something completely different, we'll give one of James' perspectives on Chapman's uniqueness:

Erasmo Ramirez 9.30.12 - the Offseason Crunch

Q. Where is he going into the offseason?

A. Erasmo Ramirez, if he qualified, would rank in the AL's top 10 for ERA, FIP, and xFIP. That's because few pitchers fan 7 men per game and walk 2, not unless they're giving in like Colby Lewis does, and coughing up a ton of homers. If you've been watching a ballgame now and then, you're not encumbered by the hackneyed "small sample size" cliche here. Erasmo does not, and will not, walk batters, end of story. And he's got dangerous weapons. He can and does finish off 2-strike counts - against anybody.

Let's call this the 7K, 2BB template. Precision pitchers, totally reliable command on a game-in game-out basis. Who are not overwhelming, but who are dangerous enough to put hitters away and embarrass them.

AL starters in this category include Dan Haren, Jered Weaver, Jake Peavy, Doug Fister, Erasmo Ramirez and Hiroki Kuroda. That's it. Roy Oswalt when he's right; you could argue Colby Lewis though I wouldn't, because the rising gopheritis and fading precision are worrying. Troy Patton of the Orioles is coming on and will be a huge roto sleeper in 2013.

Erasmo has not certified himself as a Dan Haren or Roy Oswalt, yet. That's an important fact. And it's the only thing separating him from those other guys: having sustained it over 300+ innings.

It's not a given that Erasmo can handle 200 innings, not by a long shot. And the same goes for Mr. WBC-san. Jason Vargas doesn't grow on trees.

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Q. Fister y'say?

Revisiting Prince 1B and Cabrera 3B

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At BJOL, John Dewan revists the Tigers' super-aggressive plan to move Miguel Cabrera to 3B:

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The White Sox hold a two-game lead over the Tigers today in the race for the AL Central Division title. One of the key reasons the Sox are on top is defense. Not because theirs is so good, but because the Tigers’ is so bad. Detroit has the worst defense in the American League. Compared to the average team, they have lost 39 runs on defense. The White Sox’s defense has saved five runs, which makes them an average defense.

That's a difference of 44 runs, a difference of four games in the standings.

When the Tigers signed Prince Fielder to team up with Miguel Cabrera, the plan was to supercharge their offense. While both players are having excellent seasons, it hasn't worked as well as planned. In 2011, the Tigers scored 4.9 runs per game. This year, they are down to 4.5 runs. Defensively, both Fielder and Cabrera are hurting the team. Ten of the 39 runs lost on defense are from those two, five apiece at their respective positions.

I am somewhat surprised that Cabrera hasn’t been worse at third base. In playing third base with Florida in 2006 and 2007, he lost 29 runs defensively. He was moved to first base with good reason. Returning to third base this year, we projected him to lose about 15 runs for the Tigers this year, and he’s only lost 5 so far. Here are the defensive performances of some of the other players on contenders that have changed positions this year:

Notable Players with New Positions
Player	2011 Pos	Runs Saved	2012 Pos	Runs Saved	Change
Mark Reynolds, BAL	3B	-22	1B	-3	19
Alex Rios, CWS	CF	-9	RF	6	15
Hanley Ramirez, LAD	SS	-13	3B	-11	2
Miguel Cabrera, DET	1B	-3	3B	-5	-2
Brennan Boesch, DET	LF	5	RF	-8	-13

Atop the list is a player that has never been synonymous with good defense, Mark Reynolds. This season, Reynolds has moved from third base to first and held his own. His defensive improvement has been a major part of the Orioles’ late-season success and helped him consistently remain in the lineup.

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Zero Integrity, Dept.

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Out of the Green Bay locker room* on Monday Night:

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“13th man beat us tonight.” — Green Bay tight end Tom Crabtree.

“Got (robbed) by the refs.. Embarrassing. Thanks nfl” — Green Bay offensive lineman T.J. Lang.

"Any player/coach in Seattle that really thinks they won that game has zero integrity as a man and should be embarrassed." - Lang

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Any player has a right to be outraged about a game-deciding call. We're all good there.

K-Pax, Hultzen and Taijuan in 2013

From BJOL today:

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Is there a "Best Pitch?"

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A little philosophical birdwalk laid out by The Counselor.

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Q by Mojo: Maybe this is common knowledge, or maybe it is just absurd, but are changeups the most effective off-speed pitch?

I've watched a whole summer of Vargas and now Ramirez embarrass hitters with a change that dives into the dirt. It seems that curves and sliders often get botched, hanged and then hit for extra bases, but the changeup rarely goes wrong and seems just as effective when it goes right. Maybe the curve and slider are more difficult to throw and more unreliable because they rely heavily on a hard spin for the ball.

Is this right baseball thinking?

A: Why do you say "common knowledge" OR "absurd"? You're a lawyer. Who would know better than you not to present those two terms as antonyms! Oh yeah. Bill James, 1977. Well, you're probably second.

It would be incredibly trite to say "it depends on the pitcher." Mojo axs, normalizing for the pitcher, is one pitch inherently better than another, in any meaningful sense. It's better to swing away than to bunt. It's better to shoot an open 3-pointer, if you have it, than it is to run a set 5-man play. It's better to run a 4-3 defense than to put 10 men in the box.

How would you think about this? Is a changeup the best pitch?

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Q. Does one pitch rate out better than another?

A. Limiting ourselves only to 2nd-order thinking, here, we have the following simple outcomes for each type of pitch. This is a leaguewide stats tabulation from the fantabulous statistical site Fangraphs. The top row is 2009, followed by 2010, 2011, 2012.

In the first cell (if I understand wFB/C right) -0.15 means that for every 100 fastballs thrown, the pitcher's team suffered an increase of .15 runs scored (above average) by the other team's hitters.

Q. Wow! Easy! The slider is by far the best (normal) pitch and the fastball's the worst, right?

A. Not so fast. There's the concept of "pressure" on a pitch type. If you throw lots of fastballs, and the hitters are always looking fastball -- which is in fact the case -- then a slider is "surprising" the hitter and "playing up."

Fastballs are thrown 58% of the time, while sliders are thrown 14% of the time. Imagine if Kevin Millwood went out and threw 58% sliders, and just mixed in his 90 MPH fastball once or twice an inning. The slider's run value would be like -2.00.

So the above table represents what a pitch type is giving its team AFTER it has decided to put almost all the pressure on the fastball. This implies, obviously, that the fastball is inherently the best pitch, by a wide margin.

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