Hamilton

POTD: the 2013-15 Seahawk-49'er Wars Looming

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It was 1990 or 1991 when I went into work on a Monday.

One of my bosses, a grave, dignified man, had just watched the Huskies destroy USC or somebody. With that hilarious defense that put 9 men in the box and just crashed everybody. Google STEVE EMTMAN, kid.

Then he'd watched the Seahawks on Sunday, and in those days they weren't exactly lighting it up. Anyway, Jowls Executive nodded his head sagely and told me, "You know what, I'd rather watch college football ANY DAY than the NFL. Those kids really care about what they're doing."

I thought, um, yeah, I've got a bit of a clue as to why you think you like "college football." It's called Dave Hoffman.

Carlos Peguero and Ryan Howard

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Spectator with an intruiging 3-parter about Peguero's intrigue. We were so happy with his series that we wanted to kick Spectator's excellent can down the playground a little ways.

Hold it - that didn't come out quite right -

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Spec outlines 4x kinds of power hitters for us and asks, "Into which sector do we put Carlos Peguero?" We're flattered that amigos are applying our ... um, James' ... habit of sorting players into templates. But let's kick that excellent can down the road by proposing a 5th template.

SSI Hot Seat: M's Semi Runs Over Little Blue Bicycle

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For those just joining us: Hot Seat, the way we'd sound on radio. Off the cuff. Virtual radio, no facts, no figures, light on the data, heavy on the human reaction.

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HOT SEAT: Franklin Gutierrez looks great, and looks great in all the right ways. Tape-measure shots to CF. Whattaya think?

DR D, NO MALICE AFORETHOUGHT, IN FACT NO AFORETHOUGHT aforethought: The 2009 Franklin Gutierrez was credited with 7.0 WAR, which was a giant blemish on WAR's face. Gutierrez was a league-average hitter playing a real good center field.

The idea that this "7.0 WAR" player is worth more than, say, Josh Hamilton, and that Major League Baseball (TM) is certifiably ready for the loony bin -- it pays Hamilton, but doesn't pay Bourn -- that idea is part of what causes the lingering skepticism over sabermetrics.

But! Having gotten that into perspective ... Franklin Gutierrez is fully capable of reprising Mike Cameron. 20 homers, 20 stolen bases, a .280 AVG, and a great center field (100-110) OPS+. That's a minor star -- I won't pay him for 7 WAR, but I durn tootin' will pay him for 4 WAR.

No Rauum for Rauuul (or Bay)

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In January, SSI signed off on --- > the general idea of bringing in some vets who could get a "hard RBI" once in a while. There was a problem. That problem was that the kids were Overweight-and-Overwhelmed, as Tony would say.

It says here that this problem no longer exists.

Learning from the Democratic-Republicans

It seems odd to think about a party called the "Democratic-Republican" party in this day and age, as our main parties are the Democrats and the Republicans, but it was actually one of the most powerful early political parties in U.S. history.

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Learning from the Federalists

The Federalist party sprung up out of those who agreed with the Federalist Papers, largely written by the first Secretary of the Treasury Alexander Hamilton. Federalism became one of the first two major political parties in the United States, standing in stark opposition to the Democratic-Republicans. In the most general terms, the Federalists were those inside of Washington's administration who argued that the national government should have power over the state governments.

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Felix is going to be 50% of a verrrry sweet "Player Pair"

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It turns out that Felix' contract is a 5/$135 extension, not a new 7/$175 deal that tears up the old contract. As Baker points out, this means that the 2013 and 14 payrolls won't be affected (much).

This in effect backloads the contract, always an advantage from the team's standpoint. Now the deal is worth less than the $134M in Net Present Value that we calculated yesterday. Without running it again, we'd guess 5/$128.

People will emphasize "richest contract ever for a pitcher", as the Times did yesterday with its "KING'S RANSOM!" headline. But this is in fact a poor assessment, because Felix is very shortly going to be way behind other Aircraft Carriers in average salary. At Boeing we used to use the term "True But Not Accurate" ... you can use random facts to give a misleading impression.

Dumpster Diving in Stars & Scrubs

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jellison sez,

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The thought occurred to me, and is noted on another site, in the context of the trade for Morales the acquisition of Saunders is rather interesting. If Vargas and Saunders are viewed as interchangeable (both in performance and salary), and Saunders was available to any team willing to pull the trigger, why did the Angels trade Morales for talent they could have acquired without the loss of Morales? Either

(i) the premise of Vargas and Saunders being interchangeable is fundamentally flawed,

(ii) the market expectations for Saunders' contract changed dramatically between December and February, or

(iii) the Angels made a fundamental strategic error. I would be interested in knowing your thoughts. Did the Mariners just acquire Morales for free?

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Thank you ::: jimcarreyriddler :::

The logic is impeccable, Surak, and I'd plump for point (ii) above.

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Precisely the operating advantage to Stars and Scrubs - that the lower players can be replaced by the adroit waiver-wire scrounger. The quintessential Stars & Scrubs roto championship is poached by trading Seager, Ryan, and Ackley for Justin Verlander ... and then going to the waiver wire* and finding Seager again for pennies on the dollar.

Lather, rinse, repeat. The Stars & Scrubs owner is always pushing talent UP the roster ladder, shoving a couple of 2-WAR players into a 3.5-WAR rung by making a trade, and then going back to the garden to grow more 2-WAR players on the cheap.

The mathematical idea of "replacement level player" does not capture the concept of shedding a Jason Vargas and re-acquiring a Joe Saunders at low cost.

Felix is a Mariner Forever - Cheap

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From BJOL this week:

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rtalllia's question and your answer (would you get out of A-Rod's contract now if you could, yes) reminds me of something I've thought for some time now, and that's whether some criticisms of long-term contracts might be misplaced. It seems to me that you can think of a long-term contract as equal to a shorter contract for more money. Say you want Albert Pujols but won't pay $20 million a year for 3 years ($60 million), and he won't take $10 million for three years ($30 million), so you give him $12 million a year for 5 years and figure you're really getting the 3 years you want for $36 million, and the other 2 years is the price you have to pay. The $8 million a year ($24 million) you save in the first three years of the contract lets you improve your team in other ways, and because the discount rate is positive, you come out ahead. And if Albert is really no good 4 years out, you release him with his money and move on. Is this a completely wrong way to think about it?

Asked by: flyingfish

Answered: 2/6/2013

No, it's a valid way to think about it; I'm not sure that I understand how Pujols fits in here, but otherwise it's valid. When salaries started to move upward two or three years ago, it was clear that what was happening was that teams were adding years to the contract as a way to avoid admitting that they were, in reality, simply paying more per season. If you sign a 32-year-player to a 4-year contract, you can't SERIOUSLY expect to get four years out him. The fourth year is a kind of a dodge to avoid the contract being accurately valued.

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Felix has been worth this many WAR the last four years, 2009-12:

6.8
6.0
5.2
6.1

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