Health

Dr D's version of a bullpen switch

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Q.  Does Dr. D really expect the M's to re-boot in May?

A.  'course not.  The M's are a mortal lock to keep them down until the latter part of June, anyway, as they did Ackley.  Our little think tank ain't been hired to provide consultations, babe.  We're cracking peanuts in the bleachers ... increasingly sitting by ourselves in empty stands.

That's too high!  It's too high!  ... oh.

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Q.  Could the M's re-boot while leaving the Big Three down in the minors?

A.  Sure.  We listed 9,000 things you could do that would have the desired effect, starting with the health and safety of the soda machine and proceeding from there to Kevin Millwood's job.  Dr. D would love to see a re-boot in any form, including the one that saves $8M on the salaries of Paxton and Hultzen.

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Q.  Would Dr. D agree with Esteemed Money-Man that a complete U-25 roster sends the torpedo out into a U-turn that will sink the M's anyway?

A.  Without a doubt the M's need a 90-RBI man and a reliable short reliever.  They need Veteran Presence (TM) that leads in terms of bases gained and bases lost, not in terms of "showing kids the right way to go about their business."

Ichiro caught this one.

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=== Ichiro from leadoff to #3 ===

We wrote an article or ten this winter and spring, gingerly predicting that Ichiro would benefit from having men on base in front of him.  He seems to feel more responsibility to the team when hitting in the middle of rallies, and less responsibility toward his 200-hit geas. 

Ichiro had 0.2 WAR at the finish of the 2011 season; he's got 1.3 WAR so far this season, with 19% of the schedule completed, leaving him on pace for 6.8 WAR.  He is totally rejuvenated - Dr. Grumpy's suggestion that Ichiro's digestive health sapped him in 2011 makes sense, as always.  If you watched highlights from various seasons during his career you wouldn't be able to tell him now from any other year, except he's hitting the ball in the air more.

It's possible that Ichiro is playing so well because the team is better, as opposed to his hitting in the middle of rallies.  It's possible that he's playing well 70% because of his batting order slot, and 30% because the offense is better.  Ichiro himself went home and thought about the #3 slot all winter, going so far as to try to change his swing.  It's no accident that his flyball ratio is way up.  

You might think that it's better not to overemphasize batting order; that's fine.  You can't reasonably scoff at the idea that batting orders matter:  Ichiro thinks it matters, a ton.  Ichiro is as smart as you are, whoever you are, up to and including James and Hawking*, and as a completely separate issue, he knows hitting better than you do, up to and including Ted Williams.  If THAT guy thinks batting order is a huge deal, we might want to re-think.  Have you been in a batting order?

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The Rybka 4 chess computer is now rated higher than Vladimir Kramnik, the world's top player.  By three standard deviations.  

When Rybka beats him, Kramnik sometimes does not comprehend what the computer was doing, in order to achieve its superior positions.  That's a little scary, if you think in terms of Skynet vs. John Connor.

There is a feeling associated with losing to a chess computer when, no matter how hard you try after the game, you can't understand why in the world it played Bishop to c6 - you know only that Bc6 was the best move for some reason or other.

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Q.  What is SSI's opinion on Michael Pineda's reduced velocity this spring?

A.  I like the even-handedness of this Cameron article on the subject.  And SSI is sure that Michael Pineda would be a very fine ML pitcher even at 91 mph.  His strengths were never limited to velocity.  He's had superb command, a tremendous "slider," and outstanding makeup.  

He'll develop a change, not that he needs one even at 91 mph.  Pineda is going to pitch well, assuming that he doesn't leave an elbow ligament in the trunk of his car.

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But!  I'm alarmed that Michael Pineda reported to camp and had to labor to reach 91 mph.  Fourteen months ago, he'd have been able to fall out of bed in January and hit 97 mph.  It's well-and-good that Pineda knows how to pace himself now -- but after all this rest, he really should have been able to throw an easy 95 when he chose to.

Pineda has had elbow problems in the past, he actually does have a moderate "inverted W" as Taro emphasizes, and .... it suddenly dawns on you that in 2011, Pineda might have gotten a little too caught up in the excitement of seeing his 98 fastball on ESPN.  Very easy for a Kerry Wood type, or Stephen Strasburg type, to throw caution to the wind.

We're hardly writing Pineda off, but if I'm Brian Cashman, I'm alarmed.

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