<p>Michael Bennett post up on the #Football blog. Hardball up next -</p>

<p>I've got no idea about the bullpen. If Catcher and CF are more like career norms and 1 of the 3SP with plenty of upside reaches it that ups it to about 82 wins right there though. By the 3 I mean Kuma, Walker and Paxton as all are capable of a 4 win season. BR has Kumas 2013 worth 7.0.</p>
<p>I'll just hope you're wrong about CF and Catcher and that a few other players surpass their mid. Based on his MiLB #s, I think Clevenger has some potential upside in a regular mlb role.</p>

<p>Matt, you see only .5 from CF? Ok, I get the lack of faith but this seems overboard. </p>
<p> Fangraphs has Martin as worth that last year in 310 PA when #Texas had a hot prospect to take his time away. So increased playing time reduces his value over that faceplant season? His 2 full seasons were 2.9 and 3.5 on FG or 3.5 and 4.6 on BR. 1.1 last season per BR. That with a .270 BABIP, vs. .313 career, .319 and .336 in his 500-some-PA seasons. I find it more likely he has career high PA this season, sees his speed bring that BABIP back over .300 and his defensive value holds. Wouldn't that put him closer to 3 wins than 0?</p>
<p>You don't seem to see bouncebacks in many cases there. This team has more decent chance "most improved" candidates than I remember ever seeing. You've left almost all of that out which isn't wrong, it's just if you add a win here and there for a more "mid" prediction (I see many of yours as closer to low with Martin Under that) it's probably closer to 83-85 in my view. There's plenty of UP left to be potentially realized there too and that's before tweaks that will surely happen.</p>

<p>Wow...I expected more of a reaction from my comments below...if only because I was rather stunned when I added it all up. People must still be on vacay...or else they just think I'm a #Moron. :)</p>
<div class="indented">Reply - DaddyO - 1/5/16 10:42am<br><p>I don't think it's because of anyone's opinion about your capabilities, Matt. Probably holiday-lag and, speaking only for myself, I won't turn my attention as much to baseball until the Seahawks' season is over. Plenty of time to get worked up about baseball in February and March.</p>
</div>

<p>the danger of that bet, though, is that DiPoto is not known for standing pat...and has shown the ability to find pitching at the drop of a hat. If the bullpen turns in 5-6 wins instead of 0, which is entirely possible...pens are volatile...and if I'm wrong on CF or he goes and finds a real option...the conversation changes.</p>

<p>... whoop! SABR Matt's shout came up while typing!</p>
<p>And there you have it. The Shout Box has rendered the rest of the internet obsolete, especially the articles concept. ... :- ) just funnin' ya Matt. ... so we assume you're going to put a few quid on Vegas' over/under of 87 wins for the M's?</p>

<p>Just to give you a preview of my attempt at projections, I'll lay out the positional skeleton WAR projection now:</p>
<p>C) 0.0 (better than -2.5 or so we got last year, but I am not an Iannetta/Clevenger believer)<br />
1B) 2.5 (the net platoon will be the best first base situation we've had in the fold since Olerud was in his prime)<br />
2B) 4.0 (expecting a better season offensively from Cano...room for more upside if my gut instinct aobut his defense being injury related is right but won't project that now)<br />
3B) 4.5 (you read that right...Seager &gt; Cano IMHO)<br />
SS) 0.5 (I remain a Marte skeptic, and I am gravely worried about the lack of alternatives that are any more attractive)<br />
LF) 1.0<br />
CF) 0.5 (I've given my reasons for being extremely pessimistic about Martin)<br />
RF) 2.0 (Smith/Guti platoon looks rock solid, but don't be counting on Guti being worth 2.5 wins by himself this year. :) )<br />
DH) 3.5 (expect Cruz's BA to drop by 30 points...which will hamper his value some...but then again, I'd rather the DH negative positional adjustment than the hugely negative defensive value. :) )<br />
Bench Correction) -1.5 (accounting for at bats that I don't see coming from the (better than last season) fillers.</p>
<p>SP1) 4.5 (worried about this one...Felix could be in for a rough time if his second half fade is any individation<br />
SP2) 2.0 (Kuma should get his two WAR even if he spends some time injured)<br />
SP3) 2.0 (love the steady 2 wins you get from Miley)<br />
SP4) 2.0 (and from Karns too)<br />
SP5) 1.5 (Walker...I'm not bullish on...he does not have a viable off-speed game yet and until he does, 1.5 wins is all he's likely to be worth...more of the same from 2015)<br />
SPD) 0.0 (Paxton +1.0, other guys -1.0)<br />
Bullpen: 0.0 (yep...still gravely concerned about the bullpen)</p>
<p>That's a 75 win team. (46 wins from the margin, 17 from the offense/fielding and 12 from the pitching.</p>
<p>Needless to say...I was rather surprised to come up with that final number.</p>

<p>Also, does everyone else get an annoyingly wide blue band at the top of this page with blue-colored clickable text links to the variable sections...or are you seeing the tabs like I'm supposed to be seeing?</p>
<div class="indented">Reply - Browns8625 - 1/4/16 9:08am<br><p>I am not seeing the box. There is a blue band and u can hit on it to pick sport</p>
</div>

<p>It won't even show me page 2...I can click any other page, and it eventually loads, after about a thousand years thinking. But when I click on page 2...the box for it becomes white, it thinks for a minute...and then does nothing at all.</p>

<p>Who here is a SciFi fan who will get this reference - I am a Sad Puppy. And proud of it.</p>

<p>Oh look...I just became DeFratus's biggest fan</p>

<p>Heya Matt. Recognizing a human's visceral reactions through camerawork ... little doubt it will be done SOME day. Seems it would take a verrrrrry sharp camera to visually track at which 1/100th of a second the batter sees the spin and ... starts sinking his weight, or opens his eyes a fraction, or his pupils dilate, or whatever ... the day will come, however...</p>
<div class="indented">Reply - blissedj - 1/2/16 5:23pm<br><p>Dunno if they've got hitters wired up on the diamond yet.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.wsj.com/video/using-science-to-scout-hitters/9F227697-0EF8-40... target="_parent">http://www.wsj.com/v...</a></p>
</div><div class="indented">Reply - Browns8625 - 1/4/16 9:11am<br><p>So many things we do now we couldn't before.. But yes this is a distant thought</p>
</div>

<p>The one factor that may be relevant - if his hand hurt last year bad enough to require hamate surgery, that could explain the decrease in hard hit balls and possibly the decrease in swinging. I am hoping for a bounce-back, and expecting about 2014 minus a bit. And with only the need to contribute OBP, maybe he'll just relax and do it.</p>

<p>The most important factor for Martin, that article touched on, but whiffed on its significance. He didn't swing as often...but they threw him many more strikes. The uptick in strike% implies that the league was not scared of Martin's bat anymore. He can't hit for power, he doesn't stay patient on 3-ball counts, and if you throw him a strike, his HH% is on the low side. There's no reason to believe his strike% will do anything other than remain high or get higher...even if he swings more often, it means his BB rate will DROP. I have him slashing about .250/290/.350. Which is near the replacement level for hitting. Any value we gain from Martin will come only from defense.</p>
<div class="indented">Reply - Browns8625 - 1/4/16 9:13am<br><p>Didnt hebsee improvement under Edgar...not giving Edgar the credit...but perhaps he can relearn how to get his mojo back. Many have over the years changed their stance, routine, swing, etc...</p>
</div>