History

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Emphasis on the below Sizzlers ...

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James Paxton

In our pregame on Friday, we gave these as the keys to his short-term futures price:

• LO:  Paxton finally takes a mulligan, unable to find the strike zone, loses badly
• MID:  He throws strikes, has no pitchability, and sheer stuff produces an Ultra Quality Start
• HI:  He finally gets a whipsaw, and pitchability, going, fanning 8+ (Orcs' fan excerpts tomorrow)

Oddly, he was --- > 65% LO ... 35% HI ... with 0% MID.

He had less command than we've seen in a long time, maybe ever.  This seemed to arise from the home plate ump squeeeeeezing him the first 10-15 pitches, and then Paxton rattled.  A blizzard of 2-0 and 3-1 counts followed.  After two batters, and certainly after the 3rd inning, we took it as a given that Paxton would finally blow up his sparkling ERA.

Like Muhammad Ali playing rope-a-dope for seven rounds, Paxton absorbed the 3-1 welts under his eye and punched back with 97 MPH fastballs right down the pipe.  Along about the third inning, his curve ball became really dangerous -- the first time that's been true since April.  Voila:  a combo of LO and HI.

The result:  6 IP, 1 ER, three pitted-out undershirts, 8 strikeouts ... and Lloyd McClendon calling him "The Glue."  Paxton's the glue already?  That's a little bit like saying "Percy Harvin Or Bust."

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Do keep in mind :- ) James Paxton isn't actually the 2nd BEST rookie SP of all time.  He's undoubtedly outside the top 50, if we are talking baseball history.  

Just in Seattle, we'll give you two recent ones.  Michael Pineda was a tad better overall pitcher as a rookie (though Pineda had nowhere to go from there; he had absolutely no way to get better).  Certainly the rookie Felix was better than Paxton is.  Paxton's ERA is flavor text; you don't predict Paxton's ERA to be below 3.00 in his next 14 starts.

But Paxton is very good already, and he's not supposed to be.  His FIP and xFIP are already comparable to Jeff Samardzija's.  Paxton's early success is in reality a mere seismograph as to what is coming.

Like we sez in Mo' Dawg's thread, James Paxton's value to a franchise is obviously comparable to that of Tim Lincecum, Steven Strasburg, and Justin Verlander after 10-15 starts.  

You tell me why the Seattle blog-o-sphere soft-pedals this guy so much.  They act like if they got excited about Paxton, somebody would type HOMER in all caps at them.  :: shudder ::

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Felix

Still not back on form.  But Saturday, he did get some changeups back to knee level, with bite.  He looked sloppy, like there was play in the steering column, but was not laboring.

Don't forget that ALL starting pitchers, except Randy Johnson, frazz in and out.  Felix's frazzouts tend to be Ultra Quality Starts.

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The Counselor thanks us all for the insight we've provided on the Oakland A's this year.  That's a little bit like Pete Carroll thanking Dave "Softy" Mahler for his suggestions on cornerback play.

But Mojo has not a single Muhammad Ali / Richard Sherman bone in his body, which is in sharp contradistinction to the shtick loudmouthed by that TIC "Dr. Detecto" character.  :- )