M's 4, A's 0 ... Noesi and Scherzer; lineup stuff
Little easier to win when your catcher has an appetite for destruction?!
...........
Q. How good is Noesi, or not, for 2012? Make up yer mind.
A. Cut me some slack, Jack. As we said in this offseason series, Noesi is a moving target. He's moving from the pen to the rotation. From injured to not. He's moving from the minors to the majors. His K/BB/HR profile is changing. His changeup is different every start. His slider is. Nobody knows how good he is. Still don't.
Noesi's upside is to be Matt Garza: a 93 fastball with three solid offspeed pitches. Last week, we pointed out that Noesi isn't very close to doing that.
But how about Jesus Montero's idea of Hector Noesi not trying to pitch like Matt Garza yet? How about if right now, Noesi throws more like Ogando and Pineda, using 70% fastballs and 25% his best offspeed pitch?
Simplify, babe.
.
............
Q. Comps for that pitch mix?
A. Max Scherzer, his first three years, tossed 70% fastballs at 93 MPH, used his secondary pitch (here, a slider) 15% of the time, and tried to show a changeup once in a while. The changeup was utterly useless, but Max showed it anyway, 10-12 times a game.
Swap the change #2 and slider #3, which is a good thing, and you've got Hector Noesi. Don't get me wrong; Matt Anderson had the same pitches as Nolan Ryan. Daniel Cabrera had Michael Pineda's pitches. We're just talking about what guys throw Hector Noesi's basic pitches, and if so, how did they succeed.
Looks clear to me, for one, to Montero, for two, that Noesi should emulate Scherzer's (and Ogando's and Pineda's) approaches.
.
Q. With such a volatile stock, what is Monday's call order?
A. Are the M's going to play to Noesi's strengths -- the FB and the CH? Riddle me that. Asking him to mix four pitches, I'd be dubious. :- )
Supposing that Montero's in there next turn, and/or supposing that it's same again on the pitch call, I could see the park match and the live arm producing a 110, even better, ERA. Those are all big IF's.
Geoff Baker, ten minutes after the game, was hot onto this idea of Montero's synergy with Hector Noesi. Tell me who else in the media has that kind of in-game feel for what's going on, who can watch a ballgame occur in front of him and grok something like that in real time. ... Did Wedge buy it? Wedge stated that it was a reason Montero got the starting nod.
.............
But! Does a 110 ERA even make this rotation? It doesn't make Philadelphia's. Jay-Z has some very pleasant problemos to attend. Hey, we'll give ya Vargas, Beavan, and four guys for one cleanup hitter.
.
Q. Was it stubborn of Wedge to DH Miguel Olivo?
A. The A's had a Jason Vargas wannabe out there, lefty 87 MPH fastball, 25% changeups. Milone was a guy that supergrandmaster Billy Beane wanted for Gio Gonzalez. Milone ran a 1+ BB rate; he was more Vargas than Vargas.
Wedge countered by stacking the lineup with HR-hitting righthanders - Casper Wells, Alex Liddi, Montero, etc. The only two lefties were Ackley and Ichiro. Olivo did hit 18 homers last year, and if he's got a slider-speed bat, you can't argue the strategy. Or the results.
.
Q. Does Jesus Montero relax into his swing better, when he's the catcher, and not "frozen out" on the bench DH'ing?
A. Looks like it to me. He looked like a happy man in the batter's box to me. No time to fret about AB's for 45 minutes between each one. Boom, homer and double.
That 415-foot shot to CF, did you see how short that swing was? And the ball sprayed eighteen margaritas all over the mosh pit. Jesus Montero is about to figure out that an 80% swing clears the fence here, and then what?
..............
Montero can catch in the major leagues. POTD it later; for now just check the scoreboard, two games in. And it says here that he'll probably hit better when he does catch. So GET WITH IT BEHIND THE LINEUP CARD there, man.
BABVA,
Dr D
