Hamilton

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Don't mind my incoherency.  I'm still boggling about Spec getting 1,000 views in a day...

• His first day up (Google page rank = -1)
• With no links other than one, here, not in a sidebar, buried in a post (will correct shortly)
• While writing in the frozen tundra of Seattle October
• While writing about the Seattle Mariners
• While writing about guys who probably will never be Seattle Mariners

I'm still geekin' out about it.  You guys rock.  I gotta figure out how to get an account that allows me to comment, though... ... what were we talking about?  Ellsbury!  Now there's an issue that splits the congregation right down the middle.

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CCP, Rick The Biology Editor:  Ellsbury and Choo would be exciting.  What wouldn't be as exciting, would be facing any 2014 starter who throws from the left side.  Never mind having to deal with any Charlie Furbushes.

CCCP:  No, CCCP doesn't mean "Soviet Union" any more.  And we'd heard that if you put a physicist, a chemist, and a biologist in the same faculty lounge, the biologist is the dumbest.  No word about where bloggers, or communists, would sit on those couches.  No snide anti-censorship implication, whatosoever, is implied by pairing those last two groups in one sentence.

This is a legit concern, bottom line.  Once again, we will stipulate that Giancarlo Stanton is much preferable.  As is Matt Kemp, who tatoo's lefties to the tune of a .342/.405/.571 lifetime rampage.

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POINT:  Ellsbury has benefitted from playing at Fenway.  Safeco would eat him up.

COUNTERPOINT:  Actually, Fenway doesn't help lefties that much, and Ellsbury's HR splits are like 32-33 home and road.  

DR's R/X:  His home splits look like pure noise to me.  Making a long story short:  I wouldn't worry about this one.  If you want to worry, see the next section.

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POINT:   The guy is injury-prone.  He's Franklin Gutierrez waiting to happen.  (This is the view of my man Geoff Baker.)

COUNTERPOINT:  His defenders will tell you that "his entire injury history consists of having Adrian Beltre run him over once, and having a second baseman jump on his shoulder."

DR's R/X:  Nada.  This is a fragile player.  (Though would be interested in G's, and others', take here.)

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Keep the Pitchers

Does Dr. D like the look of this plan?  Sure.  We all want to keep the prospects.  If you can upgrade the offense by enough this way -- free agency, or lesser trades, or evolution of the kids -- that's the preferred macro strategy with me.

What's good about the Granderson Plan, and all of its variations, such as the Choo plan, the Pence plan, and so forth?  Everything that we lined up in the previous article.  Granderson and Choo are better players than Nick Swisher is, and Pence may be as good.

There's a simple and obvious reason to go for Choo or Granderson instead of Stanton.  By the All-Star Break of 2014, Taijuan Walker and James Paxton are liable to be worth more than Stanton by themselves.  You avoid any risk of that occurring.

Of course, if you can acquire Stanton without shedding Taijuan, K-Pax or Zunino, then obviously the Straw That Stirs Maneuver rises to the top of the strategy list.

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Granderson's UPside

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Who Is Curtis Granderson?  How do you sift through these piles of variables and pick out the right ones?

I mean, everybody loves him, right?  Not Ron Shandler.  Before 2013 -- that is, when Granderson was a hot property -- Shandler issued a red flag on Granderson.

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"Another 40 homers, but he's at a crossroads now.  Consistent contact% erosion has put him in hacker territory.  

2011 BABIP looks like an outlier, and even a .250 AVG won't come easy.  

Power is elite, but friendly park padded his HR totals.  

Stolen bases are more a product of green light than skill.  Don't overpay."

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In this specific case, I think that Shandler has put his finger on the two key things here:  1) Granderson has elite power (175-198 PX!!) and (2) he has morphed into a hitter who spends his season stalking home runs, at major detriment to his batting average and OBP.

The Power Index (PX) for Granderson is absurdly high and should not be minimized.   When you are talking 180, 190 PX, that is higher than any major league player other than Giancarlo Stanton (at 220).  Granderson's PX has been higher than Josh Hamilton, higher than Adam Dunn, higher than anybody other than Stanton.

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Home Park Effect