Seattle Sports Insider

Wednesday Afternoon Wenleysdale

Originally filed under the "All" subdomain. Sorry. - Jeff

WOLF PACK PITCHING

This M's-site article rat cheer has several interesting takeaways for the discerning SSI Denizen. First of all, by "Wolf Pack" the GM is referring to a larger group of SP's -- maybe 7-8 primary SP's -- who go 5+ innings. He's talking about this as a default paradigm. CONTRAST his attitude BEFORE this season, in which he and Servais underlined -- time and time again -- the need for 6.1 innings because the bullpen's job was then consistently do-able.

Here also is Shannon Drayer, not typically the first person to acknowledge such a thing shall we say, underlining it. Shannon has many interesting quotes to follow on, though.

The M's-site article uses the word "evolve" and as you know, the Mainframe has always insisted that --- > the shorter the SP's outing, the better. That "horse" mentality used to manifest itself in 150-180 pitches by the starter. Then that "horse" mentality evolved to 9 innings and Jack Morris' one 10 IP outing in the World Series was remarkable. Then the "horse" mentality was "hand the ball to the closer." Then Craig Wright proved positively that batter #28 is ALWAYS the bane of the starting pitcher.

As Lloyd would say, none of it was ever anything except horse manure. It's a bygone "macho" way of thinking, one that thinks with your stones rather than with your head. ... I guess they saw some things, in this last month of 4-IP starts by scrubs, that opened their eyes. They had a shipload of cruddy pitchers and yet they battled very well. Imagine doing things the smart way, except doing it with good pitchers.

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Tuesday Morning Tazoberry

The idea was floated that the Mariners benched Dan Vogelbach because --- > they didn't want him to go 1-for-12 with 6 K's and scuff up the paint. Okay, that's probably what happened. If Dr. Detecto ever made GM, he would think of these cases as Moneyball opportunities. Sure, it's emotionally unpleasant to watch a AAA star fail in his cups of coffee, even if those are only 12 and 28 AB's long (which they were). But I'd like to let other teams bake the cake while I eat it ...

'Bach is who he is. He BB'ed 78 times this year, fanned 98, hit .290 with power, flashed some long HR's. He can move his weight (around in the batter's box, if not especially up the dugout steps) and flick balls the other way. He's Chris Snelling's biggggg brother, a DH.

Which, maybe the M's are clearing the way for a certain DH from overseas.

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James Paxton's 4.6 Wins Above Replacement

James Paxton blew down the Angels for 6 innings, with three hits and 9 whuffs. This left him at 4.6 WAR on the season, which is #5-6 in the league tied with Chris Archer.

We've noticed before that Zeus doesn't SHOW UP on the WAR chart unless you remove the requirements for being "qualified," like you gotta throw 162 innings to "qualify" for the ERA title. Obviously you need a playing-time minimum for a batting average race; obviously you DON'T need one for HR and RBI. It would be hilarious for somebody to finish 5th in RBI at 300, 350 at bats.

So here's the question. If you could have 4.6 Wins Above Replacement -- about 43 runs saved over a Rainier -- from Paxton next year, would you rather have it be in 34 starts, or in 24 starts due to a sprained ankle and a torn fingernail?

...

With Rickey Henderson it was obvious. Take his 50, 60 runs above AAA in the 125 games he gave you, and then try to get extra runs in the other 35-40 games. Make sense? That's why platoon hitters correlate with pennantwinners.

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Sports Is Life, Dept.

EYE OF THE TIGER, Dept.

Bill James, at age 65 or 73 or whatever he is, continues to come up with the freshest, most interesting baseball thought on the internet. Week in, week out. That in itself is a topic that would reward serious study: how does a man become more productive as he gets older?

Put another way: how do you avoid becoming a cranky old guy yelling Get Off My Lawn. How do you retain your gratitude, your enjoyment, and therefore your happiness?, as it applies to a subsector of life such as sports.

....

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How Much Does an Inner-Circle HOF'er Help a Franchise?

We started out to write a piece on Bill James' latest project, and wound up with the Sports Is Life post. Ah well. Who was that TV artist with the Afro, the Happy Little Accidents guy? Dr. D may not love baseball, but he does love him some philosophy :- )

James' project is: (1) Identify the 50 "true superstars" of the game, and (2) figure out how much they REALLY changed the courses of their franchises. As compared to some "weak" Hall of Famer, let's say. In other words, how much does a Randy Johnson warp your space-time continuum as compared to a Mike Mussina? How much of a "Butterfly Effect" does Clayton Kershaw create, compared to Yu Darvish?

Fresh, right?

...

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Konspiracy Korner: Dreaming

We mentioned that Bill James mentioned that he dreams baseball every night and TJM mentioned, he dreams very frequently about playing baseball.

Which brought me to a stop. Come to think of it I never remember dreaming about playing sports a single time, despite being a very enthusiastic weekend warrior, park-and-rec league guy in at least six sports. Never a dream in any sport...

Almost all of mine seem to be about PROBLEMS. Hmmmmm, is that a suggestion that Caleb was right about being half crazed :- ) ... quick check around the 'net sez, that may be dreaming's primary function, to offer solutions to problems. From WebMD:

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Gratuitous Mariners Shtick

Here's an article asking, Is Beckham's One Start Enough To Impress? Plot spoiler: sure, if we were drafting midsummer roto pickups in 2009. (Pretty sure the BABVA Boyz actually did buy in on him pretty hard as a multi-IF guy back then.)

Most of us already feel embarrassed enough about buying into Taylor Motter, even Fangraphs which compared him to Brian Dozier. But the MLB.com article does base its speculation on Beckham's Org Man persona. Anybody here who thinks Motter can adjust back in 2018? Anybody? nnnnnah

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More on Otani and Darvish

What, does Kate Preusser obsessively watch baseball in slow-mo or something? In Dr. D's circle most of the fairer gender are far more well-balanced than he is. Anyway, this Otani article has info-taining breakdowns of Otani's mechanics, and the .gifs of his changeup and slider are tear-jerking.

For all that -- the 97-102 fastball and the two to four different wipeout secondary pitches -- it's probably the rising/cutting action on his fastball that means the most in Major League Baseball. Preusser emphasizes that too. What, is LL trying to become a second Mainframe or what?

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What Were the Odds?

From Hey Bill this week:

Mike Zunino has 24 homers for Seattle this year, after being sent to the minors for about half of May because he was hitting so poorly. Do you happen to know if anyone has hit 30+ homers in an MLB season despite getting sent to the minors for performance reasons at some point in the season?

Asked by: arnewcs

Answered: 9/27/2017

I don't know of that happening exactly, no, and scanning the list of 30-homer seasons I don't see any prime candidates. Rudy York in 1937 had hit only 1 home run through June 19 and didn't really become a regular until August, but finished the season with 35 homers.

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Gratuitous Mariner Stuff

Mike Leake is 3-1, 2.53 in 32 Mariner innings; he's got a 7.6 strikeout, 0.6 walk, 0.3 homer rate with us. Again we remember his sky-high grounder rate, his ankle-low BB rate and the prospect that a league change could freshen his results for at least a few trips around the league.

In 2008, the Lincoln-Armstrong crew ran a squadron of MLB(TM) starting pitchers out there, all nicely paid, all Respected(TM). Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, Carlos Silva, who else... Dickey or somebody. Before AND after, I thought it was everything LincStrong about the Seattle Mariners in one neat little package.

In other words, I hate MLB(TM) decisions. Normally Leake would hit me this way. But for some reason he didn't, and I can't quite put my finger on why. Still can't. It's elusive. ... for some reason, Leake seems to me a bit of a variation on Doug Fister.

Last winter, we gingerly predicted Nelson Cruz for a strong 2017 season based on the way he looked as he finished the 2016 season. The last 28 days of 2017? He has hit .284/.382/.523 with an 0.50 EYE. He's got to be nicked, dinged, and tired. I just can't believe what I'm seeing, can you?

We should ask Mo' Dawg. If memory serves, Dawg has tabbed Boomstick as THE most extreme player of his type in all of baseball history. (What "player of his type" means exactly, I don't know. In chess there's a self-deprecating figure of speech, "In positions of this type you must trade Knights" and everybody knows you couldn't define what you mean by "positions of this type.")

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