K-Pax UP With a Bullet
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It gets harder and harder to write for your feebs. I'm trying to imagine one or two of you, who doesn't already know everything we're going to say before we say it. Ah, well ... I was lookin' for a job when I got this one. There's always the Armed Forces Day blogging circuit.
:- )
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Yes, We Know He's Not a Prospect, But ...
You know the most fundamental question about prospect evaluation? = how much you want to weight UPSIDE versus CHANCE OF SUCCESS. And that's a tougher question than it looks, because ... suppose that Nick Hill has a 90% chance of being Charlie Furbush, but Tyler Pike has a 30% chance of being Gio Gonzalez, or even (in the fantasy scenario) James Paxton. ...Do you want a 2-in-10 lotto ticket at a star, or an 8-in-10 lotto ticket at a regular?