Illinois

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Talking points, as opposed to analysis.  Jus' crackin' peanut shells, throwing 'em over the rail, and watching a game.

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Dr. D bears the M's no ill will, none whatsoever, for the Josh Hamilton whiff.  

Jon Heyman has it that the Mariners offered 4x$25, with two more years pretty easy to get, and he has it that the M's were bitterly disappointed to lose out on him.  As to this specific transaction, it doesn't sound like there was anything the Mariners could do.

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Rumor has it that Arte Moreno slammed a take-it-or-leave it offer, to prevent Hamilton from going back to the Rangers to match.

From a business standpoint this would be shrewd.  From a Christian standpoint - which Hamilton advertises to be his standpoint - it's a temptation from the pit.  If Hamilton gave the Rangers (his family, the ones who bore with him despite his addiction problems) his word that they'd get to match, and then $125M purchased a lie from Hamilton, well, that right there is Faustian temptation.  It could be the pivot point of a movie.

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Q.  How confident would you be that Gonzalez' first half was a hiccup?

A.  Not all that confident.  

Among his first ten b-ref.com comps are Kent Hrbek, Mo Vaughn, Will Clark, and Justin Morneau.   Clark and Morneau were accused of being the best players in baseball, pretty much, during their (very short) peaks.

Also, his HR's are real short this year, as are his fly balls + home runs.  

Also, he's never had a real quick bat launch; he's a pitch-recognition guy with a smooth, Olerud-style swing.  He's an old-player skill guy.

Also, his BB rate is trending down over the last four years; it's not just down this year.  It's gone from 17% to 13% to 10% to 6%.

Also, his numbers aren't down - not at all - because of luck stats (BABIP, HR/F etc) to any degree whatsoever.

Also, looking at his 120-130 hitting indexes from ages 24-26, his 150's from ages 27-29, and his 130 again now, it's all too easy to imagine the 150's as a three-year prime.

Also, he doesn't look like he's mailing it in, to me.  He looks like he's doing his best.

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Q.  Ouch.  So what's the best reason to think that he's still great?

A.  Every single one* of his component skills is consistent with the idea that he's mailing it in.  For instance, look at his swings on balls outside the zone:

On sucker pitches, he's gone from swinging 25% less often than average, to swinging 25% more often than average.  Also, he's making huge and life-sucking contact on those sucker pitches; his contact rate is 77% this year, compared to 66% league average.  You remember Ichiro whaling away at everything, and topping bad pitches weakly.  You have noticed Ichiro, now that he's into the ballgames, ripping away at a full-blown .302/.323/.469 in New York.  And AGone isn't 38 years old; he's 30.

Part 2

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=== Lucky?  Or did he do it on purpose? ===