Marc-O Threw the Ball Well (John Jay)

.

Would you believe me if I told you that Marco threw only one bad pitch?  Only one that the Royals hit, anyway.  ... Okay, you're not going to believe your eyes, but we'll lay it out for you in gory detail.  As the Russian Grandmasters say, "show me the concrete variation."

Above is the picture of the pitch sequence to JOHN JAY, leading off the game Monday.  We'll have to put these in separate posts, because the system will not take graphics in the body of the post.

Image: 

Whit Merrifield

.

Hitting #2, Whit Merrifield, RH.  The count goes to 1-1 and then Marco throws a changeup, the blue pitch in the low-away 9th of the grid.

What are we going to say, that we wanted the changeup 3" lower?  There's not a human being alive who can do better than hit a certain 9th of the grid.  That's a nice pitch selection on 1-1 and it's nicely executed.

Merrifield smoked it up the middle for a hit.  Two on, nobody out to start the game.

.

.

NEXT

Image: 

Mike Moustakas

.

The #3 hitter in the game, the Royals' only good hitter, Mike Moustakas.  The pitch sequence is above.  Marco does get behind 3-1 but then what does he throw?  That's a 92 MPH jam, perfectly on the black, half the baseball in off the plate and half over it.

That's a bad pitch?!

Are you going to tell Marco, "Never throw 92 MPH on the inside black."

Moustakas crushed it into the power alley, pulled the jam pitch?! for a double.  What is going on here?

.

.

The #4 hitter in the inning was a strikeout, K.

Image: 

Paulo Orlando

.

Above Marco falls behind 2-0 -- not missing any of these pitches by much.  He's being careful, trying to paint.  But it is a hitter's count; we're not saying Marco was a Cy Young winner in this game.

But what do YOU throw 2-0?  He needs a strike with runners on.  He hits his target, a cut fastball (moving in rather than the usual easy-to-hit armside sinker) right at the knees.

Orlando hits a sharp grounder up the middle, maybe taking Segura to the bag for a DP ... but Gonzales deflects it with his glove, infield hit.

Image: 

Jorge Soler

.

OK, we're in the 3rd inning.  Jorge Soler leading off.  Above, you can see that Marco starts him with a paintball on an 0-0 count.  An 89 MPH cutter that bisects the black, part of the baseball hanging off the plate.

Soler rips a 95 MPH shot into right field to Mitch Haniger for a single.

So, what do you think, Gentle Denizen?  Speak your minds.  :- )  Do you advise Gonzales to avoid that first pitch fastball on the black for a strike?

.

.

.

NEXT

Image: 

Orlando, again

.

Runner on 1B, 0 out, here comes the mighty Paulo Orlando again.  Marco goes to 2-1 and then throws the blue pitch above, a fastball at the SHINS and way inside, ball three except ...

... Orlando absolutely blasts it down the LF line for a double.  Like we tolja, it has only been three or four times that Dr. D has ever seen this, every single hitter going wild on a pitcher who's throwing well.  Norm Charlton was tipping off his pitches for a couple of weeks in 1995 and it looked about like Monday's game -- not as bad.

.

.

Image: 

Pitching Fragility

.

It's funny.  Dr. D can work hard on a Sizzler and Fizzler, which engages the Seattle Mariners, and Denizens nod politely and move on.  :- )  Or he can swing by a Bill James column for 15 minutes' work, tag on a couple M's at the end, and get 30 comments in a breeze.  I guess the Think Tank is sabermetric at heart.  No, I'm kidding of course; James' columns usually have a fresh idea to work with.

Image: 

Sizzlers and Fizzlers - Top Half

.

JAMES PAXTON ++    We're always nervous until a pitcher throws his first good game.  Bill James' latest article included this:

This is driven by the opening days of the 2018 baseball season, in which we have seen that Chris Sale is still a really good pitcher, and David Price also looked like a really good pitcher at least in his first two starts, while other very good pitchers have looked like they perhaps are not as good as they used to be.  There is some magic about it. . .about these opening days, but also about the fact that a player was really good last year and still is this year. 

It’s hard to explain, but part of the legerdemain of baseball is the fear that a player who was really good last year will not be good this year.  A baseball fan is omnianxious.  He is afraid that the Felix Hernandez of 2015 will become the Felix Hernandez of 2016, that the Cliff Lee of 2013 will become the Cliff Lee of 2014, that the Roy Halladay of 2011 will become the Roy Halladay of 2012.  It is certain to happen sometime.  This pandemic fear that we have, that our gold will turn to lead, makes us watch the opening days of the baseball season with the hopeful dread of a banker discovering that his vault has been left open overnight.

.

Nice!  So baseball's Socrates, as so often, validates the "naive" fear we all have about a James Paxton in the first week.

Image: 

Pages

Subscribe to Front page feed