Chat: 12/9/15 1:23pm
Chat: 12/9/15 1:23pm
Shouts
<p>Sorry that was me as anon. Bit of trouble signing in. What I mean by to my liking... in other words, you can see the type of guys he wants. He is also addressing the needs in a logical order and has been cost effective</p>
<p>Hello all been awhile. Glad to be back with much going on past few weeks. Can not wait to see what everyone thinks of the moves. Personally not too too impressed, but glad to see the types of players Dipoto wants are to my liking.</p>
<p>Yeah, it looks smart when you get a Span type player for a cheap one-year, but that hardly ever happens. And it never happens four times in a row to fill all your spots. Right now Dipoto can wait out the market to see if any deals develop. Even though the outfield is pretty much set, he can easily flex Martin to the bench or Smith to another team if something better comes along.</p>
<p>Great catch csiems and Matt, that makes TOTAL sense! How many times did JackyZ wait around on a player just to get burned and have to go after plan B, C, D, E, F (F for Figgens, probably Z's worst move as a GM)</p>
<div class="indented">Reply - anonymous - 12/10/15 6:13pm<br><p>I agree. Maybe a bit more aggressive</p>
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<p>The advantage of the trade route is that you don't have to wait for players to dicker around and compare offers and such...that is a very interesting point...overpayh in trade to get the steady #3 starter you need rather than waiting for someone like Leake to weigh 7 offers and then come away empty-handed and short a pitcher. Overpay to get Martin rather than waiting patiently for Denard Span...</p>
<p>Huge light bulb for me here from Dipoto: ""I think it was critical to be earlier to the market," he said, "because we did intend to make a larger-scale change." With the big overhaul JeDi had planned, he knew he had to overpay to shore up some of the more urgent positions before the other teams took those options off the board. This seems way smarter to me then realizing you still have three holes in the line up, all the best options are off the table, the players that are available have all the leverage in your negotiations.</p>
<div class="indented">Reply - DaddyO - 12/10/15 4:05pm<br><p>True enough, we we cheering most of this act first, act fast mind set until a few middling moves and then, POW!, Carson Smith was traded. The Lind trade has restored some of that equilibrium.</p>
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<p>Over 24 hours without a roster move now.... I am getting BooooOOOOOOORRRRRrreeed, Jerry! GET TO WORK! :)</p>
<div class="indented">Reply - Tuner - 12/10/15 3:16pm<br><p>*chuckle*</p>
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<p>So long guys. Apparently, DiPoto has traded SaberMatt and I and cash considerations to #Detroit for a legendary peanut vendor named Pops. DiPoto said: "I called Matt on the phone and told him not to take this the wrong way. We were just moving in a different direction. Pops will shore up left field concessions and provide a delightful experience for our fans. He can toss a bag of peanuts 15 yards with perfect accuracy" I got the memo from Matt. Apparently, our archaic views on slugging percentage weren't working out. Go Tigers!</p>
<div class="indented">Reply - SABR Matt - 12/10/15 1:16pm<br><p>LOL - that made my day, Moj</p>
</div><div class="indented">Reply - mojician - 12/10/15 1:36pm<br><p>Detroit called. They have assigned us to start a new blog covering the AAA Toledo Mud Hens. We're back with McClendon! We need to talk to upper management about poaching more of the SSI guys. You need thoroughbreds to win the Kentucky Derby.</p>
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<p>DaddyO- sent your note to Josh. Sorry 'bout dat.</p>
<div class="indented">Reply - DaddyO - 12/10/15 1:34pm<br><p>No apology needed. I shouldn't have included the word "groan," since it implies I was groaning at others. I know it's something that just happens every so often and I forget to check before posting that I am logged in. My groan was as much at myself as anything. </p>
<p>It does occur to me that the "coders" might look into some sort of popup courtesy notice if you start to enter a comment or shout while not logged in. Perhaps that would be too off-putting for truly anonymous posters, but perhaps not.</p>
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<p>Heyward is locking up 6 WAR a year like clockwork 3 of the last 4 years, which puts him right around that 24 million a year mark that he wants. I would be leery of giving it to him, but based on his age somebody will. Seager got 18, 19 mil for his prime years, and Heyward is netting a couple WAR a year over Seager's #s. The math works... I just don't think Heyward has as much of an impact on the game as the math indicates. Maybe that's my distrust of distilled behind-the-scenes math, though. ~G</p>
<div class="indented">Reply - mojician - 12/10/15 12:28pm<br><p>Word is that the Angels are in on him. Heh. However overrated he is, he will probably turn out better than Josh Hamilton did.</p>
</div><div class="indented">Reply - SABR Matt - 12/10/15 12:44pm<br><p>Actually...a win, these days, is selling for about 6 mil on the black market...er...open market. :) So if teams believed those 6 wins were a certainty, they'd be buying him for 30 mil per year or 35 mil per year...but teams don't buy defensive wins at the same exchange rate, generally, and his agent knows this. :)</p>
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<p>Can someone explain why Jason Heyward is worth $200 million bucks? That .431 lifetime slugging percentage from a corner isn't connecting with my old fashioned way of thinking. How much better is this guy than Aoki?</p>
<div class="indented">Reply - DaddyO - 12/10/15 1:38pm<br><p>Moji, I know Heyward is a good defender and all, but I just don't get it. It's as if the whole baseball world has decided that KC has discovered some magic formula that nobody understood before. Defense and bullpen. In the desperate search for advantage, sometimes people lose their moorings.</p>
<p>KC is good, but there's more than one way to skin a cat. If you want to skin a cat, that is.</p>
</div><div class="indented">Reply - blissedj - 12/11/15 8:52am<br><p>M's were all over the bullpen thing last time we were any good 2001-2003. Been hoping for a few years we'd spend some money there on a couple reliable arms. Recent years all the smart people around the internet said the $/WAR or other advanced calculations determined it was a waste, better to spend money on other areas of your ballclub. Couple years later RP is hot commodity while you can't give away 20+ HR bats.</p>
</div><div class="indented">Reply - Browns8625 - 1/9/16 6:48pm<br><p>I don't think he is... Has reached nowhere near potential and do not see a Bryce Harper type breakout in his future. Great fielder but avg at best hitter</p>
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<p>rick...the league booked him...I believe he will be a negative-WAR hitter who relies entirely on fielding to stay out of the red the rest of his career.</p>
<div class="indented">Reply - anonymous - 12/10/15 11:49am<br><p>Booked him in what way or are you just presenting your opinion as fact?</p>
</div><div class="indented">Reply - SABR Matt - 12/10/15 12:00pm<br><p>Declining BB/K, dropping CT%, dropping Z-Swing%, dropping LD%, falling batted ball exit velocity, and attendant massive decline in exit velo > 90 events all suggest that Martin is not able to square the ball up anymore.</p>
</div><div class="indented">Reply - SABR Matt - 12/10/15 12:01pm<br><p>As for the snark...I did say "I BELIEVE" before making a projection. I am far from the only person to have grave concerns about Martin's strike zone control and contact data in 2015.</p>
</div><div class="indented">Reply - anonymous - 12/10/15 12:35pm<br><p>I'm just not buying the fact that it's a given the league figured him out. Yeah he was terrible last season, but the previous 1000 at-bats at the ML level he was totally adequate for a glove first CF. </p>
<p>He was also hurt last year. I don't know, I feel like at the ML level the book is out a lot sooner than 1000 at bats. He had two full seasons of acceptable hitting prior to this last season. I think it's way too early to close the book on the guy and claim the league has figured him out so he's toast going forward. We will see.</p>
</div><div class="indented">Reply - SABR Matt - 12/10/15 12:42pm<br><p>If anon would like to say who they are...that'd be helpful. :) I would, personally, put the odds of Martin bouncing back to prior levels of production at something like 35% and the odds of him being somewhat worse than his prior levels (though perhaps not as bad as last year) offensively at 60% (5% odds of him jumping a plateau). Understand that when I'm speaking off the cuff, I'm going to highlight my general thinking in very brief terminology...especially in a shout box, where you're not supposed to ramble. :)</p>
</div><div class="indented">Reply - rick82 - 12/10/15 1:38pm<br><p>Second half of 2014, Martin hit .282 with an OBP of .324. Pretty darn close to what you would expect from him. Babip was identical to the first half. Mind you, we're talking about a 4.6 WAR 2014 with 2.8 Offensive value. And, yes, he was hurt quite a bit last year. So, I'm just wondering when this "book" took place. Sometime in 2015 while he was playing hurt? Not buying it - yet anyway - and even if I did, I sure don't see how this Martin is worse than where Jackson's been heading since leaving Detroit. By comparison, the league has him book and sitting at the bottom of some library shelf.</p>
</div><div class="indented">Reply - SABR Matt - 12/10/15 1:49pm<br><p>2H 2014 upswing was joined by an uptick in CT% that didn't hold going into 2015...1H 2014 he was just as dead as he was in all of 2015 and he wasn't hurt in 1H 2014. It is somewhat possible, as I noted above, that his injuries made him ineffective in 2015. I will hope for that outcome, but poor plate skills tend to, over time, become increasingly exploited at the big league level.</p>
</div><div class="indented">Reply - rick82 - 12/10/15 3:46pm<br><p>You made a good case for the suspect nature of Martin. But my point is - is he really more suspect than Austin Jackson? CTR? Austin came into the league striking out at an alarming rate, he never was a CTR guy. He had some good power that generated some nice seasons, aided by triples. But he's deteriorating like Martin as well, without the stellar glove. Jackson's power isn't there anymore, so you have a weak hitter and an OK glove in CF. And glovework deteriorates much slower for these types of glovesy players than batwork. Jackson's headed for negative territory glove-wise in 2015, I'd say. At least we know Martin will bring his glove to the game. To me, that is setting a higher floor than we'd get from Jackson, who may or may not hit, and probably won't.</p>
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<p>Matt, over the last two years as a Mariner, #Austin #Jackson provided us 1.5 WAR total (B-Ref). Leonys gave #Texas 5.7 during that same time. I see this as a substantial upgrade.</p>
<div class="indented">Reply - SABR Matt - 12/10/15 12:02pm<br><p>Jackson was no great shakes, no doubt...but I think we're all going to be begging for Booger by the end of May.</p>
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<p>Ji-Man rule fived? Looks like he's finally going to face some major league pitching. I'll be watching with interest.</p>
<p>As noted...I don't have a problem with the strategy of giving up upside and risk for certainty, so long as the financial terms are reasonable and you're not locked in for 3+ years (because that carries its own risks)...my problem was with Leonys Martin (because I think he will be worse as a Mariner than #Austin #Jackson was) as the guy to supposedly reduce risk...and I had a problem with giving up certainty (C. Smith, T. Wilhelmson) in another area. But of course...he can make it make sense even further by adding free agent relievers with higher certainty quotients...and I actually like his idea of pitch-to-contact, multi-inning relievers to mitigate rotation risk.</p>
<p>Groan, just made a long response to Doc's Jedi Master article, and after submitting finding out I had not been logged in. If a mod can review and pass it through, I would appreciate it.</p>
<p>Sounds about right, Padna. DiPoto is trying to reduce the #Wild swings among our less-talented / less expensive players. Getting an 85 OPS+ from SS is better than the chance to land between 65-95... especially because the Mariners have been landing on the 65 for about 12 years in a row now. We need an expectation, not a range. What'll be "fun" is finding out whether reducing upside actually enhances the chance of getting the median result, or whether Safeco skews all mediocre (offensive) players down the scale and we've just eliminated any upside from having more talented players around, while killing our road pitching. I hope DiPoto's right and he can guarantee mediocre performances that stop kneecapping the effect of our larger talents.</p>
<p>The Angels took Ji-Man Choi from #Baltimore in the Rule 5 as well.</p>
<p>Padna preaches.........as usual.........context.</p>
<p>I don't think you can fairly criticize or praise any single deal without it. I don't really have much of an up or a down feeling about any of these deals by themselves. Put together, what I see is a cohesive plan. We can debate all we want about whether the plan is sound, but this is certainly in stark contrast to the Z years. When Carroll and Schneider roster churned the Seahawks and decided to start a short rookie quarterback a couple seasons into the regime, how many of us thought it was brilliant - at the time? I didn't. I knew the team was getting better, but had no idea what was coming.</p>
<p>It's not that farfetched to me that this may be as much of a culture thing as a talent thing. (You gotta have the talent of course).</p>
<p>From the outside looking in, based on talent alone, DiPoto has raised the floor subtantially - possibly at the expense of some upside. Without going into numbers (I'll leave that up to you smart guys), I he's reduced the variance. If you ran out 100 previous rosters versus 100 new rosters what might you see in terms of range of wins and likelihood? As a conceptual point only, perhaps you've made your bell curve narrower, while increasing the mean number of wins. Perhaps if you plotted the "bell curves" the previous roster may have "tails" further apart.</p>
<p>When I look at the Miley deal, for example, I see merit. I'm not sure I would have made that deal, but in context DiPoto has a case. Whatever his projections are, I'm betting DiPoto places a high value on certainty in projection. That doesn't mean you ossify the roster with Civics - and I don't think DiPoto is doing that. But let's say you place the odds of Kuma pitching 180 innings at 50% and the odds of Smith giving you 70 innings of premium relief at 60%. How does that compare with perhaps 80% odds of Miley giving you 200 IP of his established level? You still have explosive upside in Walker and Paxton. If you've got Stars. Not all of your players need to have sky-high upside.</p>
<p>Maybe the whole will be better the sum of the parts?</p>
<p>I once went through the Bavasi picks looking for the 2 or 3 domestic draft successes amongst the legions of failures. I'm curious to see how it's going to go doing that again in 3 years with Jack's guys. ~G</p>
<p>I count 7 statements there Dan and 7 clean base hits. Especially the coherency, the decisiveness compared to Z, the raising of the floor around the stars - very tough to disagree.</p>
<p>My general thoughts: DiPoto clearly has a plan and trust in his coaches to be aligned with him on how to implement that plan. It shows a top-to-bottom cohesiveness that we never saw with Z. That strategic thinking also allows him to be more decisive than Z ever was. See how he moved from Iwakuma to plan B. He didn't just pick up the phone to #Boston and make that happen last-minute. Also, while I don't feel amazing about every single deal, on the whole, I feel like we have absolutely raised the floor. It's not super exciting, but with the makeup of this team (4 superstars locked down with shrinking windows) it makes a lot of sense. I'm sick of black holes. Doc has been saying it for years, but every year we have 3-5 of them it feels like. For the most part, we're not counting on guys to do something they've never done before. Sure we're counting on bounce-back years, and for Marte to not fall apart. But other than that... it's not like we're banking on some AAA guy going bonkers.</p>
<div class="indented">Reply - anonymous - 12/10/15 9:28am<br><p>I agree with everything you said, but I see a giant black hole and it's the bullpen. The floor can quickly drop given the group he's assembled. Sure relievers are hit and miss year to year, but it's hard to sell me on this group that either has little MLB experience (Zych, Aro), is coming off injury (Furbush), or flat out is relying on peripherals (De Fratus, Scribner). </p>
<p>This bullpen has a legitimate chance to be pretty terrible if you ask me.</p>
</div><div class="indented">Reply - OBF - 12/10/15 10:29am<br><p>Totally agree about the bullpen, and Dipoto does as well... Bob Dutton says that Jerry says the Mariners are likely to add at least one big-league free agent reliever... Options are quickly dwindling though and prices have been STEEP (Sipp getting 18 mil!)</p>
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<p>I will say that watching Dipoto work has been fascinating. So many moves. It does kind of remind me of Schneider's first couple of off-seasons with the Hawks.</p>
<p>All these moves can mean only one thing - maniacal preparation. How else can you explain that things seem to fit after all that has been done? </p>
<p>Teeman</p>
<p>Grizz...let's do the math, shall we? King Felix: 25 M, Cano: 24 M, Cruz: 14 M, Lind: 8.0 M, Seager: 7.5 M, Benoit: 7.5 M, Smith: 6.8 M, Miley: 6 M, Aoki: 5.5 M, L. Martin: ~4.5 M arb, Ianetta: 4.2 M, Furbush: 2.0 M, Gutierrez: 1.5 M (with performance bonuses), Bass: 1.2 M arb, DeFratus: 0.8 M, Scribner: 0.7 M arb, Zunino: 0.5 M, Paxton: 0.5 M, Clevenger: 0.5 M, Walker: 0.5 M, Taylor: 0.5 M, #Sucre: 0.5 M, Karns: 0.5 M, Aro: 0.5 M, Zych: 0.5 M, Marte: 0.5 M, Montero: 0.5 M, #Montgomery: 0.5 M, Nuno: 0.5 M...THUS FAR that is 115.7 M. Give or take a few hundred grand. We're short one power reliever and a few more upward depth tweaks perhaps. The power reliever will cost about what Benoit did. The tweaks might add a few mils (especially if we go from Montero to #Napoli)...let's call that another 10 mil. That's 125-126 mil and right where we finished in 2015 with a 125.6 M payroll according to Cots Contracts.</p>
<div class="indented">Reply - MtGrizzly - 12/9/15 6:42pm<br><p>Ah Ha. Thanks for the numbers. They are right on track, I guess.</p>
</div><div class="indented">Reply - OBF - 12/10/15 10:11am<br><p>This reminds me of going to Costco... I always get to the line and think, wow we did pretty good, maybe we will get out of here for less than $150 bucks!... then the checker starts scanning items and the numbers start sky rocketing and I leave the store, shaking my head thinking, "How in the world did I just spend $300 dollars! We just came for bread and milk!!!" :) :) :)</p>
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<p>Here is what puzzles me. Early in the off-season, we had #Lincoln saying that payroll would not go down. Then we had Dipoto saying not to expect any "big name" signings. Now the club is virtually complete, save a reliever or two plus depth moves like a 6th starter type and various reclamation projects. But the payroll is definitely down from last year's $130m, isn't it? Something has to give.</p>
<div class="indented">Reply - anonymous - 12/9/15 5:59pm<br><p>Pretty sure it's going to end up right in line with last year after you factor in a potential utility guy and/or another pen arm</p>
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<p>In case anyone was wondering about Seung-Hwan Oh and when/whether the Ms might sign him --</p>
<p><a href="http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2015/12/08/2015120801860.html" target="_parent">http://english.chosu...</a><br /><a href="http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2015/12/662_192619.html" target="_parent">http://www.koreatime...</a><br /><a href="http://news.yahoo.com/mlb-hopeful-oh-seung-hwan-faces-gambling-charges-0... target="_parent">http://news.yahoo.co...</a></p>
<p>Looks like he has some 'splaining to do. Hopefully it will get resolved soon. South Korea still hasn't shed all of its "nanny-state" past.</p>
<p>I like getting somebody with at least one dominant skill. Lind can hit RHP. Platoon bats have come here to die in recent years, though. It'd be great if we could get Lind to break the streak.</p>
<p>Huh. Big crowd of denizens and a Shout Box scrolling like a ticker tape. Then Dr. D barges in and the gears grind to a halt. Way to make a guy feel welcome</p>
<p>;- ) ;- )</p>