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Q. Supposing that Michael Saunders WERE a +0 UZR center fielder. That means ... What. to me?
A. It would mean that you have a +3 WAR center fielder, in house, first year arb eligible. And that's if he doesn't improve with the stick.
With no other changes, other than better defensive charting and better pitching, your young CF might "suddenly" emerge as a Kyle Seager-like asset.
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Q. 3 WAR, how do you figure.
A. Well, he already scored +2.4 WAR in 2012 -- 139 games -- after docking him significantly for defense.
He's got a 108 and 106 OPS+ the last two years. A center fielder who hits for that is going to get you 3 WAR. Gutierrez' OPS+ was 105, the year he scored 6 WAR (heh!)
In center field, Michael Saunders' peers are not Jose Bautista and Giancarlo Stanton. His peers are Denard Span and Brett Gardner. He already hits as well as most quality CF'ers in the game.
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Q. Why doesn't it seem like he hits as well as Span and Gardner?
A. He hits very differently than most center fielders.
Let this saying sink into your ears, gentlemen: the human brain does not like unfamiliar things.
(Side note on that topic: psychologists have been puzzled as to why human males react well to Barbie-doll proportions in CGI women -- proportions that would leave women unable to get pregnant. From an evolutionary standpoint, men should hate 18" waists on women.
But psychologists realized: Barbie-doll proportions create an image that is easy for the male brain to process at a glance. And the brain then reacts to the situation as "friendly.")
Our primitive, emotional response to Michael Saunders is that there's something wrong with him. But this creates an opportunity for the non-primitive analyst.
Give the Mariners credit. One thing they have done, is remain open-minded and friendly towards "weird" players. Wilhelmsen, Sherrill, Farquhar, Ackley at 2B, and Japanese catchers, and 41-year-old outfielders ... lots of people.
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