1
I'd say if you could do better than that, you'd have something pretty great to publish amigo...
By 'other team's offense' you're talking about the lineup that day? The pitcher/batter matchups are pretty important.
Morse, LF: are Bat-First Cleanup Hitters "Average" Players?
Cognitive dissonance, dept.
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Offense is not only additive but multiplicative, symbiotic in ways we haven't captured yet.
According to math, there is no clutch and Chone Figgins is worth 5 WAR. According to life, I'm not seeing that. Detroit put Miguel Cabrera at third base - that's how much they worried about defense vs. offense.
It's more important to get the offense functioning - or at least the majority of GMs act (and pay) like it is. If you're going to pay for defense, then that's what pitchers are for. Having my defensive guy standing on 2nd base all the time when the 3rd out is recorded doesn't help me win enough games. Occasionally-chained-together-singles is a poor substitute for a working offense. - Gordon Gross
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Q. Baseball's GM's, universally, pay a lot of money for cleanup hitters who don't generate much WAR. Why is this?
A. This isn't an argument between Dr. D and other Seattle blogs. It is a systemic argument between major league GM's and the math majors who follow the game. In real life, GM's pay:
- $12-15 million for 2+ WAR the way that Paul Konerko and David Ortiz get them, and
- $4-5 million for 2+ WAR the way that Marco Scutaro and David DeJesus get them,
- Nothing for 2+ WAR the way that Endy Chavez gets them.
GM's don't argue with each other about this. It's not like Billy Beane would give you $15M for Marco Scutaro if he had it. It's not like there is a maverick GM out there, snapping up "jack-of-all-trades" 3-WAR players at $12M salaries. Every GM caps Marco Scutaro at $5M, and Every GM will pay you $12-15M for Paul Konerko and David Ortiz. If he has the money.
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Q. Is this because GM's haven't studied the issue?
A. ...
There is no issue that GM's study more. Market inefficiency. The way to improve your team the most, for the least dollars. They bring their massive resources to bear on this question, and they continue the investigation on an ongoing basis.
No, my friend, GM's have studied the issue, and they have ALL concluded that "average-ish" 2-3 WAR cleanup hitters are worth a lot.
That doesn't prove anything, not beyond a shadow of a doubt, but if it doesn't give you pause for thought, that ALL organizations have reached this conclusion independently? Then you have insufficient respect for alternative points of view. We mean it in a good way.
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Q. Was Jaso-for-Morse a trade of an average player for an average player?
A. Keep in mind that WAR dogmatists would say exactly the same thing with respect to trades like:
- David DeJesus for Paul Konerko,
- Ichiro Suzuki (at age 39) for Shin-Soo Choo,
- Cliff Pennington for Curtis Granderson,
- Brendan Ryan for David Ortiz, and
- John Jaso for Mike Morse.
We're not talking about Choo in his walk year. We're saying that if you had David DeJesus signed for four years at $6M per, or Shin-Soo Choo signed for four years at $6M per, the Fangraphs sabermetrician would call them a push. Something is horribly wrong here, either with GM's or with sabermigos.
On the left side of those bullets you have players making $3-6M per year, and on the right side you've got guys (assuming a free agent tour) who pull down $12M to $18M per year.
This is an example of cognitive dissonance: the feeling of discomfort when one has two firmly-held beliefs, which are completely contradictory.
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Q. In the case of Jaso for Morse, a GM actually did swap them straight up.
A. There were complicating circumstances, such as Jaso being under club control. Jaso was NOT deemed equal to Mike Morse ceterus peribus, by anybody inside the game.
You're not actually going to see a David DeJesus traded for a Shin-Soo Choo where the contracts are equal. There is no GM interested in trading Choo's 2.5 WAR for DeJesus' 2.5 WAR (even assuming that is the org's WAR projection for both players).
A Fangraphs writer, if he were given a GM job, could in fact trade all of his 2.0 WAR Konerkos, for all the 2.7 WAR Cliff Penningtons he wanted, and could trade all of his 2.5 WAR Asdrubal Cabreras for all of the 3.0 WAR Marco Scutaros he wanted. Three years on, he might have an epiphany from the 100-loss bunker, but if so, he'd have a lot of fun getting there.
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Q. What is the appropriate way to resolve cognitive dissonance?
A. One of the beliefs has to go.
Maybe both of them have to go. But for sure, one of the beliefs has to go. Because it is FALSE. A healthy human being does not wish to maintain beliefs that are lies.
It's possible that Theo Epstein and Pat Gillick and Jack Zduriencik are wrong, and the sabermigos right. This happens sometimes, and used to happen a fair amount of the time, back in the 1980's. I don't remember it occurring much lately, a systemic blunder on the part of baseball's player valuation, do you? GM's have sabermigos working for them now.
An intelligent neutral party certainly wouldn't assume that the ML think tanks, all 30 of which unanimously agree on this question, are wallowing in ignorance. The question is worthy of study.
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Q. What is the accurate way to reconcile this particular cognitive dissonance?
A. To accept the LOGICAL FACT that either the Fangraphs school of thought, or the community of major league GM's, or both, are completely and irreparably WRONG.
GM's firmly insist that cleanup hitters with lead gloves, such as Choo, Holliday, Morse, Granderson, Butler, David Ortiz, Quentin, Jose Bautista, CarGo, Berkman, Granderson, etc., are worthy of $75M+ contracts. Fangraphs firmly insists that they aren't.
One of the two schools of thought has to go.
This isn't an argument about Mike Morse. It's an argument about cleanup hitters who can't run or field, and it's probably the most fundamental market-inefficiency argument of our time.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
2
glad you're listening to my concerns. I'm not trying to say not to bother, just adding my perception in what I think makes it difficult. I could be wrong or at least some of the factors I mentioned could be small enough factors that they just don't push the numbers too far off. Again, I'd love to see you do something with it. CERA is a great idea that just isn't complete yet. If you can get it more accurate with some adjustments that would be great.
3
The M's have earned peoples ill will, on this you will get no argument from me. I am also lukewarm on the Morse for Jaso deal and likely wouldn't have pulled the trigger. Nonetheless, I see a significant difference between this off season and many in the past.
JZ will clearly spend big bucks or sacrifice big talent for what he sees as special players (Josh Hamilton and Justin Upton were not risk free by any means, but they both have special talent. They were both concensus number one picks overall).
JZ will not spend big bucks or sacrifice big talent for good players. Unlike in the past, we haven't traded Asdrubal Cabrera like talent for band-aids and we haven't spent real money (though not top dollar) on Jarrod Washburn or Chone Figgins.
JZ will work very hard to distribute the talent on the roster to make a more functional team. This is the essence of current off-season. Have better talent in the minors at catcher and pitcher than you do at bat first positions like DH, 1B, LF, and RF? Exchange Jaso and Vargas for Morse and Morales.
4
Very few teams actually pay for defense. And the guys who get paid for defense, they're generally the best in the game and have a good bat. Guys like Carl Crawford, Ichiro Suzuki, and down the line guys like Brett Gardner. Why do these guys get paid like the Josh Hamiltons of the world if they can't jack 10 HRs a season? It's the Yankees, the Red Sox, that are bidding on these guys. Why are the richest teams in baseball going after speedy, defense, OBP guys, and not HR sluggers in the corners? The rich teams are actively trying to pay for defense and running, "soft" WAR skills, as long as it's the right guy.
Not every GM will pay a 110-RBI guy - I certainly hope not. Especially after the Carlos Lee signing, the Ryan Howard extension, the Jason Bay signing, the Alfonso Soriano debacle...oh, have you noticed something? Every single one of those GMs who made those signings are out of baseball, replaced by SABR guys. Except Amano, but this is the guy who paid a closer $50M. There's a difference in paying Ortiz or Manny, guys who cleared 7 WAR multiple times in their careers, vs paying Ryan Howard, who's had maybe one season where his defense and running didn't cut his value in half. You say every GM pays Ryan Howard $125M, I say you're nuts. Only one GM pays Ryan Howard that much money, and that GM gave Jonathan Papelbon $50M to pitch 9th innings every 3 days and traded Cliff Lee for peanuts.
The thing that gets glossed over is how NEW this stuff is. 2003-2004 is when Moneyball really started taking off in organizations like Oakland, Boston, and New York. The Carlos Lee signing, Alfonso Soriano signing, that happened in 2007. So in the 3 years from 2004 to 2007, you think all 30 GMs in the game suddenly learned sabermetrics, believed in Bill James' theories 100%, and applied them to their signings? Of course not. Paradigm shifts don't happen that fast. Bavasi was still GM back then, and he just started using sabermetrics (inaccurately) in 2007 to make the Bedard deal.
I actually think most current shot callers have a firm grasp of sabermetrics, defense value, base running value, and why OBP correlates better with runs scored than HRs or SLG. I'm guessing every GMs know this stuff by now, and 95% of the time believe it 100%. GMs are smarter now than they were back then. So when you bring up Carlos Lee, Alfonso Soriano, as examples that "Hey look, GMs pay $20M/year for 110 RBIs!" I just shake my head. That was 6 years ago. That was when Bill Bavasi couldn't figure out the 2007 team wasn't actually an 88 win team if you just looked at run differential. A LOT has changed since then.
Nowadays, Yankee fans look at Granderson's 43 HRs, 110+ RBIs, and don't want to resign him. Cashman knows the guy's a hack, his OBP is way too low, his defense is way too bad to earn anything close to Carlos Lee money, and everyone in NY knows he's hitting FA because NYY doesn't think he's good enough. In 2000, you would have been nuts to not think 43 HRs and 110+ RBIs wasn't good enough for NYY. Nowadays, the 2nd and 3rd worst teams in baseball are the only one's bidding on a 30 HR, 100 RBI Josh Willingham, offering him 3 years and $21M, because that sluggers been worth 2-3 WAR a season his entire career. Nowadays, the Angels would rather play a no power, low BA hitter like Bourjos over a 25 HR, low BA hitter like Vernon Wells because Bourjos is worth more with his glove.
You can't keep bringing up old contracts and act like that's how things are now. A lot has changed from even 3 years ago, let alone 6 years ago. Or 10 years ago. The strategic game has changed. How's the game look right now? Angel Pagan, averages 8 HRs, 55 RBIs, .330 OBP, made $40M this year. Nick Swisher, who's good for 25 HRs, 90 RBIs, .360 OBP, made $56M. In what world is +17 HRs, +35 RBIs, +30 OBP, worth $4M/year? A world where Angel Pagan earns 2 wins with his legs and glove, while Swisher earns zero.
5
"hold things together as best as possible until the young players actually start playing well" seems to describe best what Jack is doing. In fact, to me it suggests that despite the stumbles our of the gate for his approach, he really, really believes in his young talent. I hope he's right, because he's betting his future and our enjoyment of M's baseball on it.
6
I'm very pleased with the return for Vargas and Jaso, seems almost too good to be true if Morales and Morse stay healthy and put up their average numbers. Should be an exciting season, hardly any black holes in the lineup! No reason this team can't surprise and push for 90 wins with Paxton / Hultzen reinforcement. Average offense, above average bullpen and possibly above average rotation is the wild card.
Thanks for all the wonderful reading this winter Dr.D, it's helped some of these grey days pass by a little quicker. Would have commented more often but couldn't remember my old password and Klat wouldn't email a reset for months and months. Finally got the reset today :)
7
I'm very pleased with the return for Vargas and Jaso, seems almost too good to be true if Morales and Morse stay healthy and put up their average numbers. Should be an exciting season, hardly any black holes in the lineup! No reason this team can't surprise and push for 90 wins with Paxton / Hultzen reinforcement. Average offense, above average bullpen and possibly above average rotation is the wild card.
Thanks for all the wonderful reading this winter Dr.D, it's helped some of these grey days pass by a little quicker. Would have commented more often but couldn't remember my old password and Klat wouldn't email a reset for months and months. Finally got the reset today :)
8
There's a flaw in your attempt to reduce this to an either-or scenario: the same GMs that realize that power is overrated and defense and on-base percentage are underrated have zero incentive to correct the inefficiency. So when there's a "bidding war" for a player with undervalued skills, teams don't push the bidding too high. An Oakland or a Tampa Bay doesn't correct the market's overvaluing of power hitters when they sit the market out -- people just say "well, obviously they don't have the money." Teams have been allocating their resources away from bat-first, no-glove guys for years -- Tampa Bay's filled out competitive rosters for years without paying one of these $12-15 million salaries - the closest they came was $10 million to Carlos Pena, or approximately the price of two wins.
The trend, as I see it, is absolutely starting to lessen the value of bat-first guys. Your examples, the Konerkos and Ortiz's, are guys who were re-signed by their previous teams. Adam Dunn is the ultimate type of player who'd be extremely pricey based on stats on the back of a baseball card, but much less so if you consult more advanced numbers. None of us would complain about his paycheck, but his first free agent deal was for 2 years and an AAV of $10 million. His second pushed the AAV up to $14 million, but that's a far cry from what the top free agents get, and this is a guy who put up a half-dozen straight 40hr seasons. If GMs really thought that the baseball card numbers were still the best indicators of value, Dunn would have been paid like an elite guy. Instead, he was paid like the two to three-win player he'd been the few years before he signed his deals.
This year, we saw the Pirates completely rebuffed in their attempt to get value in return for 30HR guy Garret Jones, we saw Adam Laroche unable to get a 3rd year (or any bidding interest), we saw Kendrys Morales, who hit 30HR in his last full healthy season, traded for an innings-eating, soft-tossing lefty, and another 30HR guy, Morse, traded for a catcher that many see as a part-time guy. Unless I'm missing something, the biggest position player FA contracts this offseason went to Hamilton, Upton, Swisher, Pagan, and Victorino, in that order. Not one of them is a bat-only guy.
The trend isn't power-only hitters continuing to get paid like elite players, it's power hitters getting paid approximately what WAR says they're worth, and defense-first guys still getting treated skeptically by guys who have no incentive to redefine the market by bidding each other up for skills they believe are undervalued (which would make the value go away). This makes perfect sense, since everybody in the analytical community will readily acknowledge that metrics for offense are light years ahead both in precision and predictiveness than defensive metrics. The price tags reflect this, but also acknowledge that HR total isn't the be-all, end-all of a player's value.