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DaddyOIt's become comical how teams that start to get in trouble against the M's find a way to get to Mike Zunino in the lineup, even if it means filling the bases. They are THAT confident they will get him out. I can't remember the recent game or the hitter in front of Zunino, but I think there was an occasion where, with runners on first and second with two out, the pitcher obviously pitched around one M's hitter who was not that great and in the end walked him to load the bases and get to Zunino. Talk about disrespect.1 hour 6 sec ago
DaddyOI know one thing. If I was facing a team that was perennially as bad offensively as the M's have been for years under the Zduriencik regime, I would be instructing my pitchers to be aggressive in the strike zone. I would continue this until that team PROVED over time that my strategy was counterproductive.1 hour 4 min ago
SABR MattThe Yankees found that high strike zone percentage was correlated with poor offensive performance predictively. If you take any group of 50 guys with at least 50 PAs who had a zone % higher than 50 and who happened to have produced a high OPS+ or batted ball velo or any other measure of offensive skill...and checked how they did in their next 50 PA...they did much...much worse. Whereas, if you take the opposite group...low zone percentages, low offensive production...they did much...much better in the next sample.1 hour 27 min ago
rick82And if you are swinging at a lot of pitches in the zone because pitchers feel they can safely challenge you, you are going to hit a few (or a lot) of them out1 hour 31 min ago
DaddyOA high solo HR percent could, on the face of it, be the result of the league's pitching strategy against the Mariners. (Not saying this is so, just noodling.) In the '60's and '70's there were outstanding pitchers who routinely gave up relatively large numbers of home runs but maintained low ERA's. Go look at Juan Marichal's numbers. Or Don Sutton's. Sutton used to talk about this, saying he would rather challenge hitters with nobody on base and, if he gave up a home run, so be it. He could give up two solo homers in a game and still beat you 3-2. This is sort of the pitchers' Bizzaro World of Earl Weaver's 3-run homer strategy for hitters. Deny the 3-run homer, you're going to win a lot of games. It would be interesting to see the M's multi-run HRs Allowed percentage compared to the the percentage they hit. (AND compare that to last year's pct. allowed).1 hour 37 min ago
SABR MattZone % is also the most stable statistic in the game (we learned this when I was working for the Yankees) ... required only 50 pa to teach a level comparable with a while season of ops2 hours 13 min ago
SABR MattZone % being elevated is usually a sign that the other teams think you are nota threat2 hours 15 min ago
GLSSomething I've noticed this weekend looking through plate discipline numbers on Fangraphs: the Mariners have the 4th highest zone% in baseball. It would seem that opposing pitchers feel like they can pitch more aggressively to the Mariners than they can to most teams, or at least that's my understanding of what this means. Cano is something of a culprit here, as his zone% has gone up by 4.1% from last season. Lefties seem to be eating Cano alive this year as well, which is probably part of the problem. Anyway, I tend to think this zone% number is significant, both for individual players and in the aggregate for the team as a whole.9 hours 18 min ago
DaddyOOne can also look at the incredible preponderance of Mariners HR's that are solo blasts. Sure, we are at or near the bottom in OBP. But does that explain all of it? And you start putting some of these things, explainable in isolation as bad luck, together, you cannot help but speculate that the underlying problem is more than just bad luck.9 hours 46 min ago
DaddyOIt MAY (or may NOT) be unlucky. But if I was managing the club I wouldn't assume it to be so.9 hours 48 min ago
GLSHow does that rate compare to the rest of baseball?11 hours 28 min ago
SABR MattOne wonders if our strand rate (over 80%!) isn't...a little unlucky at least. :)12 hours 24 min ago
Gordon GrossOur expectations are higher this year, and the club isn't meeting them. We are one game worse than we were last year at this point, and I'd love a winning streak to get some momentum under our belt. Somebody's gonna have to surprise us. Or as Grizz indicates, multiple someones. Pessimism is in our blood as Mariners fans. Need some optimistic things to happen to get us back on the track we have had in mind for this season.17 hours 47 min ago
Gordon GrossEh. The Royals figured it out at the deadline last year and carried it into this year. We have a couple months before we even get to that point. We are struggling. But right now struggling makes us a .500 club, which is usually the best we can expect. We KNOW we can be better. Just need to get there. I do think some roster changes need to be made. We'll see if Jack can make the right ones this year to change course instead of move deck chairs. Our RISP hitting is driving me insane though. We've left so many runs out there... but then that's another reason I don't think we're hopeless.17 hours 52 min ago
MtGrizzlyI'm really struggling to not give up on this season. The list of things that have to happen in order to get good are stacking up. Cano has to start hitting. The bullpen has to stop yakking up base runners. Iwakuma has to come back strong in order to displace Walker. Someone needs to take RF and own it. Morrison needs to be good more often...19 hours 30 min ago
SABR Mattwe really suck19 hours 53 min ago
MtGrizzlyI'm tired of Farquahar.19 hours 53 min ago
Gordon GrossAnd that run comes around. Tired of this.19 hours 57 min ago
Gordon GrossMeanwhile Danny can't buy a style on the bottom edge. Tell me again why the zone isn't automated?19 hours 59 min ago
Gordon GrossHe still took a good swing. Just not good enough.20 hours 2 min ago