The fact you note you don't value consistency as much as you (perhaps) should is one of the key items that sets you apart from the majority of bloggers out here.
I think it is especially difficult for scouting types ... who are looking specifically at physicality to measure consistency.
When Smoak is impressive, he is VERY impressive. The "idea" that a player has 50 HR potential makes the mouth water.
With pitchers the inconsistency is more obvious. The 3 inning 6-run disaster can be followed by the 8-inning shutout and vice versa.
Ultimately, I think this is why season long stats are soooo incredibly important ... especially when viewing prospects. Season long numbers do capture that consistency thing ... within limits. If a player (Saunders) is retooling his swing, he may have "some" self-induced slumping painting an overly negative picture of his consistency quotient (assuming we could create one). But, one thing is certain ... extreme high stats in the minors CANNOT be achieved without a significant amount of consistency.
Understanding that players "can" become more consistent is important. But accepting that each player has a personal limit to HIS consistency is the arena I think many fans (and scouts and pundits) lose their bearings.
For me, the minor league lines for Carp and Smoak ALWAYS made me believe Carp was more likely to succeed. My view of Ackley's college and minor league complete stat lines are why I believe Ackley is NOT done, and that when he does find that "comfortable" place, he WILL be able to maintain it at a rate that will make him an exceptional player, (while I still remain skeptical about Smoak ... even as I believe if he had not gotten hurt, his 20-HR power was only a week or two away from emerging).
With Saunders, I think his swing retooling makes him the most difficult read of anyone. I would expect more noise for a year or two ... but long term, I could see an aggregate success story ... (but with Andruw Jones type month-to-month extreme results).
And, of course, I have repeatedly noted that AGE first chips away at consistency. It is that consistency quotient that drives down total production for players when they reach their 30s and drives it down again as they enter their late 30s.
Fantastic article.
At Bill James Online:
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I'm American, not Japanese.
Also: I personally am not very good at consistency, and don't value it enough. All I'm doing here is making an observation.
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On the Mariners telecasts, Mike Blowers has been quoting HOF'er George Brett, Brett complaining about the lost art of bunting. Nobody works at it much any more, grouses Brett. "Agreed," says Blowers. "The last guy I remember who really worked at bunting was Brett Butler."
Blowers & co. go on to point out that the mentality is, "You don't get on SportsCenter with a bunt." I go to junior-high games and see young American boys "styling" as though there were going to be TV highlights later.
It's a cultural thing. Jack Black complained in School of Rock, we used to have music. Then "The Man" ruined that too, with a little thing called MTV...
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Americans measure you by looking at you on your best day; Japanese measure you by looking at you on your worst day.
How many times was it, again, that Hisashi Iwakuma gave up more than 3 runs? How many seasons, during the 2000's, did Ichiro have fewer than 4.4 WAR, or more than 6.0 WAR? He wound up having the #4 total among all players during the 00's, simply by being consistent. There was Bonds, Pujols, ARod*, and then Ichiro. It wasn't as impressive as it should have been. In Japan, they'd have been noticing, that Ichiro and Jeter led all other AL-only players* by 50% in WAR for the decade.
Do you think that Doug Fister was underrated because of this factor? Even when he does win, it doesn't look as impressive as when Clayton Kershaw wins - even if the stats are the same. Iwakuma could toss another 15 quality starts in a row, and it wouldn't make the impression that CC Sabathia would, doing the same thing. (By the way, had you noticed that Doogie is having his best season, and Detroit has 4 of the 10 best starters in the league.)
This may be one reason that Americans tend to under-appreciate Japanese players. And one reason that Edgar isn't getting into the Hall of Fame. Next time there is a Japanese player who does not look properly imposing, we might want to remember. :- )
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Brendan Ryan is underappreciated on this level. His glove impacts the game every night.
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Comments
I spent a lot of time in Japan in the 1980s and 90s and came to believe that while Americans and Japanese are likely members of the same species, there's room to wonder. From an essay on, of all things, world trade:
Akira Ishikawa, a Japanese lumberman, once told me Americans completely misunderstand Japan.
“It’s like hail out of a blue sky,” he said. “It doesn’t make sense.”
In many respects the U.S. and Japan are reverse images of each other. The flaws of one are the merits of the other. Japan emphasizes the group, the U.S. the individual. Their strength is cohesion, ours liberty. They promote production. We promote consumption. Even when we do the same things, we do them differently.
Baseball in Japan is a peculiar station-to-station, hedgerow-to-hedgerow struggle, where the cleanup hitter is as apt to move runners along by bunting as he is to swing for the fences.
We score in bunches. The Japanese are satisfied to put lone runs up one at a time. This is how Toyota would play baseball. In business terms, think of it as a willingness to sacrifice immediate profits for market share.
*Paraphrasing James Carville, not directed at any posters.
There's production consistency, but also physical consistency.
There's a huge difference between Bryce Harper and Ichiro in terms of how they will age. Harper plays every day like it's the last, Ichiro vows to die another day.
Bryce Harper should be glad he's not like Chris Snelling... Yet. And the moment Guti showed Doyle Glass Syndrome, I bailed on him being a productive member of the lineup.
You gotta stay on the field to be productive too.