Vargas 8 ip 1 er 0 bb 6 k

 .............

Sometimes when we're playing softball with a coed group, a 5-year-old will go up there between innings, wanting to hit.  The pitcher will lob the ball in from the rubber.  She'll trying to throw it more softly, which is impossible, when you think about the physics involved ....

Dr. D will kid around and come "relieve" the pitcher.  He steps up 15 feet from home, bids the kids take a practice swing, and watches for where the bat's going.  He then tosses the ball onto the bat.  Bingo, a 5-year-old can hit, with eyes closed no less ...

................

Vargas throws three pitches:  an 88 fastball, an 85 "cut" fastball and an 80 changeup that swerves armside 14 inches.  The fastball is a stinging little dart that cuts across the edges for strike after strike.  The changeup is Jamie Moyer's deadfish change, redux.  The cut fastball is a pitch that quite literally is thrown to the hitters' bats.

Wednesday, Vargas scrapped the slider/cutter, throwing it only 9 times, and alternated between an 89 fastball and a 79 changeup.  The results were devastating.  The Tigers were late on the fastball, flinching visibly as it nailed the black for called strike after called strike.  They were way out in front of the change, swinging at it even when it was nowhere near the plate.  And Vargas simply refused to throw his 85 cutter onto the hitters' bats.

"In between" on Vargas is 85 MPH.  This is the speed his cutter travels.  A cut fastball can be quite a "pitch to contact" pitch under certain circumstances.  Vargas' circumstances are not those.  Vargas threw nothing 85 MPH, and the mighty Detroit Tigers went down like sacks of potatoes.

Having scrapped the cutter on the night, Jason Vargas slammed one of the best performances, lineup-for-lineup, of his life.  Mr. Montero, if you're running down the charts tomorrow morning, let's hope the single-figure "slider" total isn't lost on you.

Vargas since going to the Bedard Rob-O-Tron:

Games 13
W-L 7-3
ERA 2.81
K 65
BB 22
HR 6
K/9 7.0
BB/9 2.4
HR/9 0.6

There aren't really any finesse pitchers who sustain 7.0 strikeouts per game, so Vargas can't be compared to Moyer, Buehrle and those guys. But if you wanted flyball pitchers with about 7 strikeouts, walks between 2 and 3, and below-average HR rates, those guys would include Jered Weaver, Alexi Ogando, Jordan Zimmerman and Vargas.  Jeremy Hellickson is trying to become the 5th.

.......

G-Money asked when the right time is for extension, implying that the answer is "now."  Vargas' on-field free agent value has been:

  WAR $ FA
2010 2.6 $10.4 million
2011 2.4 $10.6
2012 0.9

$20 M (prorated)

Dr. D proj. 3 to 4 $15M+

Jason Vargas' performance is as predictable and projectable as anybody's.  Remember how they used to say about Dave Parker, that he looked like .350 standin' still?  Vargas:  Not that.  Which is super cool.  They don't see Vargas comin'.

Last July 31, the Mariners couldn't give Jason Vargas away.  SSI thought that was going a bit far; he thought Vargas was a mediocre $10M starter who was, fortunately, making only $5M.  One of your all-time great mass hallucinations.  Jason Vargas, right after the trade deadline, started the Bedard Rob-o-Tron and, like G-Money says, is roughly comparable to Doug Fister in on-field value.

Mark Buerhle made $14M per year the last four years, and will average $13.5M the next four.  On paper, Vargas' $15M annual salary is a no-brainer.  If you could get him for $10M per, you'd be stealing money.

.........

And yet it's always true that there are only 25 spots on a roster.  If you had a theoretical supply of dozens of Felixes under club control, that is when you wouldn't pay $10M to an $18M pitcher.

Boy, you'd think you could cash him in, though.

 

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