The MLB Wild Card becomes a 'Scrounge' slot

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Per Rosenthal.

I'm delighted!  My favorite thing about it is that the Wild Card is now worth 50% of a division title, not 98% of a division title.

The MLB Wild Card, maybe for the first time in sports, becomes the scrounge position that it is supposed to be.  That, to me, is the most important thing about this decision.  The ratio between the WC and division slots has created beauty and symmetry at the end of the season.

Are you aware of any other sport in which a Wild Card has been devalued appropriately?  This 50% proportion is very elegant:  the Wild Card will be a red-headed stepchild, and the division will be front-and-center.  The Red Sox and Yankees (or Rangers and Angels) will, even if wayyyyy out in front of the AL, still battle hammer and tongs for the division.

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=== Clash of the Titans === 

Under the new rules, Godzilla vs Mothra wild card games are going to be part of the fabric of baseball.  And the AL, there are three truly fearsome aces:  Verlander, Sabathia and ... Felix.

In 1995, John Hart had a juggernaut team in Cleveland and, as the playoffs approached, he actually lobbied Major League Baseball to change its rules for that season.  He didn't want to see Randy Johnson twice in a 5-game series.  He wanted the rules changed so that the Mariners didn't unfairly knock his team out of the playoffs -- the "unfairness" being Randy Johnson.

In the NL, they have Halladay and Lincecum and Kershaw and Lee and .... but in the American League, there are only two or three aces like that right now:  Verlander, and maybe Sabathia, and definitely Felix.  The former two figure to win their divisions.

As in 1995, there will be one (1) American League team that nobody wants in a sudden-death Wild Card game.  That being your Seattle Mariners.

The value of an aircraft-carrier HOF starting pitcher goes up with the new rules.  Felix Hernandez is even more valuable than he was yesterday.

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=== Chess Played in a 90-Degree Wedge of Grass ===

Supposing that you are the 3, 4, 5, or 6 team and you are coming down to the wire in late September.... the value of a Felix or a Verlander in the Wild Card is soooooo immense that you have to consider sacrificing your playoff chances in order to gain it.

Baseball says, play the games one game at a time.  Win today's game, and then worry about tomorrow's.  But baseball has never seen this kind of a 1-game live or die dilemma.  Having Felix pitch the Wild Card, vs. Jason Vargas, might change your chance of playoff survival from 30% to 70%, just that one game.  Under those circumstances you have to consider a sacrifice in the last week of the season.

I dunno what sorts of strategies we'll see in the last week, but I know they'll be delicious.

Comments

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mabalasek's picture

doc, that is the funniest picture that i have seen in a while :D ive been laughing by myself for a few minutes now :D
 

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