.........................

=== Splits ===

It so happens that Miggy was injured on April 30, which makes for some easy-squeezee splits.

The tOPS of 107 in April means that, as compared to the Seattle Mariners' own 2012 stats, the enemy batters in April were 7% better than for the overall season.   With Montero and Jaso behind the plate in April, enemy hitters were 93 OPS+ batters, so to speak; with Olivo catching in April, they were 107 OPS+ hitters.

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=== Dr's Diagnosis ===

There is one conclusion that, even given the limited amount of data, is perfectly sound at this point.  This conclusion is not based on the statistics alone.  It is at this point demonstrated beyond all reasonable doubt.  This conclusion?

IT IS NOT RISKY TO PLAY JESUS MONTERO AT CATCHER.

Montero can catch, period.  Just move on.  Further discussions of this non-issue serve only to clutter, to obscure and to make us dumber.  Seriously.  Incisive logic is served by simplification.  Montero's "scary," risky defense is not a variable any more.

It is no longer viable for Eric Wedge to maintain that terrible things could happen if he made Jesus Montero the #1 catcher.  Especially given that there is another #1 catcher, John Jaso, who has Montero's back.

................

You'll remember that I was the last holdout here ... hey, Olivo's CERA has been best on his staff for five years running, ever since he came back to the AL.  Possibly there are unmeasurable factors here that do justify Olivo's position.

The May ballgames detonated that theory.  Olivo is certainly more technically sophisticated than Montero.  It doesn't matter.  It HASN'T mattered.  As Carl Willis said this week, you can't get wrapped around the axle with your opponent's strengths and weaknesses.  You've got to play to your strengths too.

Miguel Olivo knows more about batter weaknesses, and he can shout down a starting pitcher when he needs to.  It doesn't matter.  Whatever it is that Jesus Montero does better than Miguel Olivo, those things make him as effective as Olivo is.

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=== Well, That's Their Job, After All Dept. ===

Bill James wrote a great little essay on the idea that managers favor defense because they like the feel of being in control of a game.  We'll have to follow on shortly.  95% of managers -- basketball, football, whatever -- attend to defense, because they feel out of control when the other team is scoring points.  Pete Carroll threw an unauthorized pass in high school, it got returned for a TD, and since then his entire personality is about white-knuckle control.

You get the point here.  Olivo's particular game -- analyzing the hitters and then executing a pre-calculated game plan as approved by the manager -- definitely gives the coaches the feeling that they are controlling a game.  That's as opposed to letting on-field talent flow in their favor.

..............

It's a natural desire, but it is often wrong.  It's a 50-50 proposition; you win just as many games by letting good things flow, as you do by trying to prevent bad things.  Laker Showtime was just as* effective as Piston Bad Boy basketball.  Pat Riley didn't control Magic and Worthy.  He let them flow.  Not all coaches are capable.

I'd like to think that I was verrrrry open-minded on this one.  But I've triangulated a diagnosis.  Olivo is in there because he provides the coaches a subconscious feeling of having a grip on the game.  That's all.

All coaches have strengths and weaknesses; we're not taking a swipe at Eric Wedge.  His determination to impose his will has been good for the ballclub in many ways.  If a manager can't impose his will, life is going to be a short and brutal experience.

It says here that sometimes your personality tendencies can occasionally become --- > subconscious compulsions that force you into irrational decisions.  That's true of all of us, isn't it?  It's easy to mistake Olivo's technical sophistication for "superior effectiveness."  That's a very easy mistake to make.  But guess what.  The May ERA's are in, b'wana.

I loved Bobby Knight, but he sure blew it when he threw Larry Bird out of his office, didn't he?  Being a great coach isn't a license to kill.  Your team's season, that is.

.............

There's a clubhouse issue here, obviously; it's not feasible to disrespect Olivo in that clubhouse.  It undercuts the loyalty message, the "All In" message.

Me?  I'd trade Olivo, and go do the press.  "We just thought it was time to turn the page and move on with Montero."

Montero and Jaso give you a whale of a catching situation going forward, don't they?  :- )

Cheers,

Dr D