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Taro's article, a cubicle or two to your right on the virtual 71st floor that is Seattle Sports Insider, puts the problem in Zen-simple relief:
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$60 ~ $90 Million: "Theoretical" Cost of what the Cubs PAID for 3 months of Chapman's services.
$80 ~ $110 Million: "Theoretical" Cost of what the Indians PAID for 1.5 years of Miller's services.
$86 Million: ACTUAL Cost of Chapman's services for 5 YEARS. Paid by the Yankees in Free Agency.
Why are Chapman and Jansen getting sub $100MIL offers when you can recoup that value in trade at any point in time during the duration of their contracts?
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It's a tremendous observation by Taro. That is point A.
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Never have you been more fortunate to have Dr. Detecto as your host. He will propose, for your reading pleasure, a couple of possible answers to Taro's saber riddle. One that does not involve the concept of "GM's need to figure out what WAR is." Taro himself rejects this facile explanation, observing a day earlier that we have reached the age in which no single organization is a patsy for all the other organizations...
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We could quibble about the $90M cost for renting Chapman, by pointing out the "deltas" between Org Prospect A and whoever steps in behind him. But you would still be able to "cancel the fractions" and find that July 31 GM's buy rentals at --- > close to the rate they pay for 5-year players.
Partly because! On July 31st, they pay in prospect currency, and on December 31st, they pay in dollar currency.
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Usually when teams pay that $90M* prospect value for a rental player, they get absolutely destroyed in the press for doing so. Addison Russell PLUS! for Jeff Samardzija ... Wil Myers for Jon Shields ... examples could be multiplied, but you take the point. Dayton Moore replied to this, after coughing up Wil Myers, by saying:
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"We have to start winning games at the major league level, and the way you develop a winning culture is by winning major league games," Royals general manager Dayton Moore said. "It's time for us to start winning at the major league level."
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First minor point. As SSI constantly preaches, the value of winning (and re-branding) is much higher than fans think it is. As the Royals have demonstrated since the Wil Myers trade. Their payoff has been huge, huge, huge. Far higher than would have been the payoff of keeping Myers, watching him play well, but remaining losers.
Moore's point about "burning his Loser bridges" is an interesting side point. Seattle Mariners fans can rejoice any time the ballclub moves its contention window to, um, "RIGHT NOW." When a baseball team burns its bridges in a commitment to excellence, good things tend to happen. Sufficient unto tomorrow are the evils thereof. Figure out 2019 when it gets here, within reason.
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There is a second minor point. On July 20th, a team can assess its playoff opportunity. It might be able to discern "One impact player, right where we are weak, is going to be the +3 games that put us in the playoffs or don't." It's like leveraged innings out of the bullpen. A shutout inning in the 8th, against the Red Sox MOTO, might be 2X or even 3X the value of a random 4th inning.
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A third minor point. When you pay $60M plus for three months of Aroldis Chapman, you are pretty much guaranteed to get the three months' performance you expect. When you pay $175M for seven years of Felix Hernandez, you've got to put a multiplier in there for the risk ... he's got, what, an 0.40 chance of delivering 7 more years of elite performance. Or less. Therefore if you could bank the 2.32 ERA's for seven years, Felix would be worth $400M, not $175M.
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But the major point is this: FREE AGENT SUPERSTARS ARE UNDERPAID. Assuming they stay healthy and perform.
Because of collusion and precedent and community peer pressure, a David Price might make only $27M per year when in reality he may be worth $50M or much more, after you add up WAR and branding and culture and all the rest of it.
Even LincStrong used to be willing to use vastly different paradigms when it came to a talisman like Griffey or ARod. The usual paradigm is warped; the "desperation" paradigm is the reality.
Comes July 31st, we see what players are really worth. There is no peer pressure not to trade three great prospects for a superstar; it flies under the fiscal radar, in a way that an $800M contract would not.
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Takeaway for M's fans? Stars and Scrubs, baby. Those aircraft carriers are worth more than you think. Any time your local club is willing to give lots of prospects and/or lots of $$$ for a difference-maker, feel free to rejoice. The only cost was to our enemies, who resent the precedent.
All Hall of Famers are market inefficiencies. The reductio ad absurdum? Babe Ruth was worth a lot more than $100,000, now wasn't he.
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Well, maybe all that shtick is wrong. But I doubt it :- )
Oh. Kenley Jansen for 6/$100M? It's a no-brainer. Or it would be, except for the ownership committee's philosophical stance.
BABVA,
Dr D