From June 23rd to July 1st the M's thrice scored more than 10 runs. 12, 10, & 13 to be exact. They gave up 9 runs in those ball games. They had a +26 run differential. They are +51 on the year. Half of it came in essentially one week of offensive explosion.
Well, the same holds true for almost all teams. Bill James knew that. But I think it may have a larger impact on teams that really struggle to score runs but win with their staffs. To wit: The M's have given up 9 runs twice this year. That's the most. But we've scored 10 or more 6 times. Our run differential in those 6 games is +48. That eats it all up. Give us those 6 wins and then we're a .500 team after that. Less than that, probably, when you consider the M's inability to get the "hard" WAR and "hard" RBI's. Jame and Pythag understood that, I know....
Critical Mass is a big bleepin' deal, Doc. You've nailed it. We've had no one to get on base ahead of Cano and Seager. And no one to be on base ahead of Zunino when he gets loud, like yesterday.
Our hero's heroics are limited because our scrubs are just way too scrubby. Saunders helped, because he edged us closer to CM. But it's worth pointing out that Ackley has heated up precisely when Saunders went down. So the overall impact of his injury has probably been negligible.
We needed a COF bat when we had Saunders and nothing happened. We needed one more when we didn't have him and nothing happened. The moment he went down we should have had that deal made...for anyone, really. We should have "tried" to improve rather than betting the house (or WC slot) on Hart. That's good money chasing bad and we should have known it.
For more than a month is has been "rumored" to be a buyer's market for COF types. About the only guy we haven't been trade-linked to is Frank Robinson. I think he's still on the DL.
And still nothing happened. Mathers smathers, this one falls on Z.
Now get me Rios or Souza right this very instant! Do that and some of the lethargy will be forgiven. But only some.
Sigh...
moe
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Q. What IS really going on?
A. Kendrys Morales is using the Dustin Ackley / Ichiro / Henry Aaron method, "gliding" his weight and refusing to hit against a firm front side.
Anybody who changes his name from "Kendry" to "Kendrys" has the right to go his own way.
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Q. Rephrase. Why wouldn't the M's be 61-44 right now.
A. One of two things is clear:
- (1) The Mariners are about to start winning tons of games
- (2) They're doing what they did in 2011
No other conclusion is possible.
Well, for teams that finish like -12 games under expectation, you could theorize that the bad luck just never stopped coming. But if that's your weasel clause here, don't forget that the M's must trade as if if they expect the luck to "regress."
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Q. Remind me - what happened in 2011?
A. They had a tremendous rotation, "contending" into early July ... but right at the July 4th date they realized they didn't have the offense to compete. Their shoulders slumped and their chests collapsed, and they ripped off a 17-game losing streak in July.
Which they richly deserved. The 2011 Mariners were a microcosm of the last 10 years ... the (1) committee quiltwork ballclub and the (2) lack of corporate need to impose their will in the standings.
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Q. Which of the two theories does Dr. D favor?
A. Since July 6, the Mariners' few wins are too often by "soft" RBI -- something kinda lucky happens. You win on a bloop over the shortstop, or on a throw into the stands, or whatnot.
And those are the occasional wins. There are tons of losses, July 6-27, in which no* RBI occurred -- hard OR soft.
:: shrug ::
Their offense looks to me like it has a broken spirit, like it doesn't really believe it can beat the other team fair and square. You don't think the hitters are pressing? The guy running the Cheney Carousel certainly thinks so.
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Q. Would the M's offensive confidence be restored by a cosmetic add? Maybe by moving to Cheney Stadium?
A. If you're a Mariner, what would it take to make YOU think "heyyyy! Now we can do it!," short of moving to a new ballpark?
There's a Critical Mass factor here, a Tipping Point, that is opaque to sabermetrics.
5th Order Wins, baby.
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Q. Tipping Points are opaque to sabes, huh. Are they opaque to GM's, frantically trying to trade for 1.4 WAR over the course of the next 50 games?
A. ...
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Q. You think David Price or Jon Lester would "shake up" the M's and restore offensive confidence? A WAR is a WAR, right?
A. The collapse since July 6 would have you thinking Offensive Critical Mass, Tipping Points, cured by a Star hitter.
:: shrug :: I dunno. Maybe a David Price would "shake up" the clubhouse ... and "re-boot" the offense through osmosis. Whereupon Kendrys Morales, Chris (or any other pleasant surprise) Taylor & Co. could snap out of it.
There are a lot of teams fighting for the #5 Wild Card, including the Yankees. Jack Zduriencik has approximately a week or two left to pull out of the power dive. Kinda cool that it's Trade Deadline week.
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Q. What if you can't really get 5th-Order Wins at SSI?
A. Then no problem. There's only one possible conclusion. The M's start winning -- big -- any day now. No need to even trade.
Yo' momma,
Dr D
Comments
What does it mean if you're winning 12-2, but losing 2-3?
In general it means --- > you're going to start winning more. Let's not forget that Deadball Era teams (league ERA's of around 2) .. Pythag holds for them too.
........
It ain't that pitching teams do badly vs Pythag. It's that "scrubby teams that are way too scrubby" fall below Critical Mass, as you put it. Especially in terms of their psychologically losing their mojo...
:: daps ::