Carl Pavano? Jaret Wright?
It's not that these guys get healthy and STAY healthy. But, with the modern push in medical repairs, I suspect there are plenty who got healthy "for a season". Problem is, there are extremely few players of this quality -- and instead of looking for ANY pitcher to get healthy, the focus is going to only be on those with uber-skills when healthy.
BUT, if you are only a pedestrian pitcher, and keep getting hurt, you stop getting chances. The problem here is that the pool of "similar" players is so small that it becomes increasingly simple to create look for a test case which is an empty set.
I do, however, like the concept of Harden for 3 months, followed by Bedard for 3. :-) (would that it could work out so symetrically well).
Q. Is there a solution for Harden's chronic health issues?
A. Harden's attempting a solution: he throws just two pitches now.
He uses an overhand rising fastball, a straight change, and he has STRICTLY junked his other pitches in a desperate attempt to put together a career.
2009 was the first year that Harden went out there throwing a 1-finger, a 2-finger and nothing else, ever.
If you're an optimist, you could hope that this is the magic sparkle dust.
I'd be more optimistic if the problem were his elbow. It isn't. It is (a) his shoulder, and (b) every part of his body (a la Marfan Syndrome).
I can see dropping sliders and curves to save the ligaments in your elbow. How does it protect your shoulder? Ah well. He did go 140 innings last year. Who knows.
.
Q. What's Aardsma worth on the trade market?
A. I don't know of any way that a Rich Harden or Kerry Wood or any pitcher like them, has ever been coaxed to stay healthy except if he .... WAIT a MINNNNIT! (Jerry Seinfeld)
There are 9,000 pitchers in the minor leagues who aren't allowed to start, because their orgs don't think they're durable enough. Why isn't Rich Harden a closer?
Supposing that Harden, as a closer, were Eckersley-Rivera class? Wonder why they don't discuss it much.
.
Q. Or?
A. I'm hoping that the M's crack saber department has figured something out, with their advanced formulas... a correlation between throwing four games into the 7th, and hitting the DL 30 days later, or something.
That's what they're paid for. Maybe they've figured something out.
But remember ..... can YOU think of ANY pitcher like Harden who ever got healthy?
.
Q. How much will it take to get him?
A. Everybody in baseball knows what you know: Harden will never be healthy.
GM's aren't waiting to see where he'll go from here. They're trying to figure a "price point" for what his partial season is worth.
Going after Harden isn't a question of rolling dice. The dice have crapped out before we started. It's a question of, what are those 100 innings worth? And can you arrange it so he throws 20-30 tough innings in October?
Guess here is that somebody will say, yeah, okay, and give him $8-10m for 1 or 2 years.
....
Like everybody else, I'd love to see Harden in the Blue and Teal, and sit there hoping for the best.
However, assuming that Bedard is showing the medical progress that he did last winter, he's probably a better bet to go 150 innings. And Bedard's hook is a candidate for the best pitch in baseball, too.
Now you want to get SABRMatt's shtick going, i.e. Harden AND Bedard making a combined $10m and throwing a combined 200 (-300?) IP, now we're talking :- )
If the M's manage to grab the spectacular Rich Harden, I'll shut my eyes tight and hope that the FB-change diet has cleared the path to greatness. Rich Harden is badder than El Cartelua when he's rocking.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
I wouldn't rate Harden too much higher than Bedard. Both have injuries that bear consideration.
But Harden can go in April, while Bedard looks like a 2nd half pitcher if he can go this year.
Personally, I'd sign both. In the same way that I wouldn't mind signing both Nick Johnson and Branyan for a 1B/DH combo, with Griffey/Carp backin up whoever blows up in June.
Our rotation with Felix/Bedard/Harden as a top 3 looks WAAAY better than Felix/RRS/Morrow, or some such - especially since we still HAVE RRS and Morrow wandering around the rotation.
A fully healthy Bedard or Harden who could give you 230 innings + playoffs would be worth what? 16 million? 18? 20?
You can sign both of them for FAR less than that and cobble together a Frankenstein #1 starter to go with the #1 starter we already have. It lets Morrow get his feet wet as a #5 and save his arm as well (if we keep him) - HE'S not a 200+ inning guy either, and I don't want him trying to start out at that number right now.
It requires some finessing of the pitching roster, probably dropping RRS to the pen until we need him because one of our fragile guys blows up.
But neither Bedard nor Harden is in line for a long-term investment. They're strictly a bet for the next 1-2 years. If one of them - or both of them - blow up, we're not hamstrung for half a decade. Which in a sense is no different than if Felix goes to arb, gets 8 figures, and then has something horrible happen. At least the bet on those arms is on talent, rather than Silva-like mediocrity.
Pitchers get injured. That's the rule. So in that sense, either you find a guy who is the exception like a Clemens or a Maddux, or you try to limit your losses on pitchers who are more like the rule.
The nice thing about pitchers with extensive injury history is that you get a price break, in both years and dollars.
We have plenty of #4-5 arms. It's the top of the rotation that needs to be filled while we wait for Pineda/Robles/Kasparek/Cortes/JCR/WHOEVER to come through the minors healthy and give us some cheap help.
In the meantime, backing up Felix/Bedard/Harden with whoever cracks the rotation from the Fister/RRS/Morrow dynamic and then stuffing the pen with excess arms while we wait to see who breaks...
I can get behind that.
And IMO we SHOULD try to get at least one of those injured-yet-awesome pitchers to come in and provide some ace-level talent to supplement the rotation for however long they can. We need more rotational and offensive help than we can probably afford without taking some injury risks, so I'd take them gladly. The As did well with Frank Thomas on the cheap. Fortifying the roster with a bunch of guys who are death when they play won't help us 100% of the time (since at least some of them will be down with various ailments all year) but the aggregate help they should give us might be enough to boost us to a division crown.
And I'm pretty sure that's a step in the right direction while we try to groom some healthier players.
~G
I love the idea of signing both Harden & Bedard. Get r dun Z.
You are absolutely correct in saying that if eirther one would be guaranteed to pitch 200+ innings, that they would get $18 mil year.
However, signing both Johnson & Branyan...I'm not sure we can afford it. Now if we could trade for Dunn with our extra pitching after signing Harden & Bedard...:)
...As I pointed out at MC, we have three pitchers who could probably throw 200 innings if needed and two of them aren't all that great.
Felix Hernandez
Ian Snell
Doug Fister
Everyone else has absolutely positively NO SHOT to throw any more than 160 innings. Tops. Morrow has had elbow trouble twice in the past and has never thrown more than 140 innings in a season, even in college. Ryan Rowland-Smith lost half of this year because his arm was too tired from throwing like 120 innings in 2008...LOL No one wants to see the Mariners wind up relying on Snell and Fister as the innings eaters unless they actually EARN that with great performance. And no one should be crying about it if Snell and Fister both end up in the bullpen for some of the season because we're tooling around in our fragile but awesome hot rod Lincoln. The only CORRECT solution for the Mariner rotation until we have a solid #2 to back up the King is to sign eight starters instead of five.
Felix Hernandez (240 innings hard on the barrelhead - costing roughly 12 mil)
Rich Harden (120 innings - costing roughly 8 mil)
Erik Bedard (120 innings assuming he gets back in June - costing roughly 3 mil plus incentives)
Ian Snell (150 innings - costing 4.25 mil)
Ryan Rowland-Smith (120 innings, some out of the pen - costing 0.8 mil)
Brandon Morrow (100 innings, some out of the pen - costing 0.5 mil)
Doug Fister (100 innings, some out of long relief - costing 0.45 mil)
Luke French or Jason Vargas (80 innings, mostly as LOOGY, spot starts - costing 0.45 mil)
I'm getting 1030 innings from my rotation (some out of relief, but still)...it costs me about 30 million dollars (not out of whack for what needs to be spent on a contending rotation), and 90+% of those starts are made by players who I trust to keep me in games (Felix, Harden, Bedard, RRS) or at least who I want to develop (Morrow, Fister, Snell).
The chief complaint with this rotation is that it lacks guys who go deep into games and will stress the bullpen...I would counter, however, with the fact atht for most of the year, two or three starting pitches will be in that bullpen and available to take 2-3 inning relief appearances (Silva, Fister, French etc) as needed.
In a volatile buyer's market, the correct game-theory-driven strategy is to buy as many undervalued commodities as you can...there's no reason NOT to buy Harden AND Bedard.
Players we're already commited to with 2010 salaries attached:
RF) Ichiro! (13.00)
P) Carlos Silva (12.75)
UT) Bill Hall (1.38)
SS) Jack WIlson (5.00)
SP) Ian Snell (4.45)
DH) Ken Griffey Jr. (2.35)
2B) Jose Lopez (2.30)
SS) Yuniesky Betancourt (1.10)
Commited salary: $42.33 M
Arbitration cases that will definitely be heard or estimated contracts signed pre-arb:
SP) Felix Hernandez (10.00) - I'm assuming even if he gets extended that the first couple of years of the deal will be lower-salaried as the Mariners "buy out" his arb years
CF) Franklin Gutierrez (3.00)
David Aardsma (1.20)
Mark Lowe (1.00)
Likely commited salary: $15.20 M
Club controlled players paid on MLB salary:
SP) Brandon Morrow
P) Garrett Olsen
SP) Ryan Rowland-Smith
P) Yusmiero Petit
IF) Jack Hannahan
SP) Jason Vargas
1B) Mike Carp
SP) Doug Fister
P) Luke French
SP) Gaby Hernandez
C) Rob Johnson
C) Adam Moore
RP) Shawn Kelley
OF) Mike Saunders
IF) Matt Tuiasosopo
RP) Anthony Varvaro
RP) Sean White
Total invested in this group: $7.23 M
Total so far: $64.76 M
Let's say we signed the following five free agents:
SP) Rich Harden (7.50)
SP) Erik Bedard (3.00 + 2.00 incentives)
1B) Nick Johnson (9.00)
DH) Russell Branyan (5.50)
C) Gregg Zaun (1.00)
Total commited to this group of five: $26.00 - $28.00 M
Payroll maximum: $92.76 M
Budget: ~100.00 M
So.........why can't we afford all of those guys again?
I'll bet somebody can come up with a case of a Butch Henry type suddenly going for 200 IP one year. I think Billy Swift did that once.
That would be a good *objective* reason to be jazzed about Harden... Game Two of the season... no doo'ts there...
230 IP of Har-dard (oof) clocks in at about $22m with playoff domination at no extra charge ... Bedard worth over $10m last season in 117 IP and worth $22m in only 180 IP in 2007...
It's kind of funny that these two guys actually DO seem to project to tag out in the middle of the year...
If this were S-O-M, you could actually plan on that, run Harden a bit less carefully in the 1H, prep for Bedard's return in June or July ...
I sort of wonder why this hasn't been done before, though I seem to remember the Yankees investing in a couple of DL-gambles like that over the years, paying them significant $$ in the hopes they'd be ready 2H... the names escape me, though...
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2010414546_oh_canada_...
Baker sez Harden talks appear serious and the Ms are telling agents that pitching is the first priority.
Jason Bay is being strongly pursued despite being Type A. Bay in Safeco POTD?
Marco Scutaro is Type A and is no longer being pursued, but was being asked to play 2b.
Matt, I will completely and fully acknowledge what you wrote is possible, AND DESIRE-ABLE for me and many others.
I just do not know Jack Z enough to know if he is willing to do what it would take to get what you suggested done. Those things would include:
1. Juggling the 34 players that you listed - although it would probably be only 29 or 30 players...so it is do-able.
2. Convince Harden and Bedard they would each get enough starts / innings to make them happy enough to sign on to this idea. Ditto for Johnson & Branyan.
3. Willing to start that many youngers to start the year - I really hope this is not an issue.
4. Willing to put up with the limited "wiggle rooom" with this very full roster, when he tries to prepare for next year...especially if this team still does not have enough offense. This is a bit nik-pik, butas I said, I do not know Z.
[img_assist|nid=29667|title=Safeco|desc=|link=popup|align=left|width=0|height=0][img_assist|nid=29668|title=Fenway|desc=|link=popup|align=left|width=0|height=0][img_assist|nid=29669|title=Bay chart|desc=|link=popup|align=left|width=0|height=0]Have at it. I don't know how to make them bigger.
Not all of the players I listed would be on the big league roster right away. And when you sign Branyan and Johnson, you tell them they're the starters at X position (Branyan at DH, Johnson at 1B)...that Griffey is around to give them days off when they need it, but that they're the go to guys. As for Bedard and Harden...you tell Bedard you want to bring him along slowly to make sure that his recovery is as successful as possible for his own sake, and you tell Harden he's in the rotation all year right behind Felix. If he gets hurt, you deal with that later...but the guys who get screwed if both Bedard and Harden are healthy at the same time are guys you don't care about much (Fister...I love ya buddy...but you're young...you've got lots of time to find a starting gig, Snell won't even be on the payroll after 2010 most likely, etc).
In other words, the players think your roster is something like:
Catchers:
Zaun
Moore / Johnson when he gets fully healthy and back into game shape can replace Moore and give Moore more AAA seasoning)
Infieldiners:
Johnson
Branyan
Lopez
Wilson
Tuiasosopo
Hall
Hannahan
Outfielders:
Saunders
Griffey
Gutierrez
Ichiro!
Rotation:
Hernandez
Harden
Rowland-Smith
Snell / Bedard (once healthy)
Morrow / Fister / Snell (once Bedard is healthy)
Bullpen:
Fister / Morrow
Silva
Petit / Varvaro / French / Vargas (fighting for that last bullpen slot with the rest in AAA waiting for someone to get hurt)
White
Kelley
Lowe
Aardsma
The roster looks plenty stable from the vantage point of all of the players involved. If they stay healthy and play well...they will find playing time. Meanwhile, you've got other guys waiting in case they don't.
They paid Lieber like 6 million dollars to get ready for the second half.
The Red Sox did it with John Smoltz and Brad Penny just last year.
...Bay would lose like 15 home runs and 10 doubles. That's not good.
Matt - sounds great to me. I was just trying to come up with reasons why Z may not want to do this.
We just need Doc to work his magic and make this team happen.
I mean you could be right that Z would hesitate to complicate his roster...but then again...the Mariners used like 48 players in 2009 and won 85 games with an overwhelmingly positive clubhouse. So maybe it's less of an issue with Wakamatzu managing? Dunno how Z is going to see it.
Of course my plan kind of blows up re: Branyan and Johnson if the team decides instead to sign Jason Bay. Bay and Griffey could share 99% of the DH at bats and Bay could play left field against tough lefties to spell Johnson (with Branyan DH'ing when he does and someone else playing first...perhaps Lopez).
Bay will probably cost more like 13 mil/year so signing Bay and Branyan would cost like 18.5 mil/year. That would be about 4 million more expensive than my previous two-bats solution leaving less room for mid-season acquisitions but still doable. The line-up in that case owuld go:
Ichiro! (RF)
Gutierrez (CF)
Branyan (1B)
Bay (DH)
Lopez (2B)
Zaun/Moore (C)
Tuiasosopo/Hall (3B)
Saunders/Hall/Griffey (LF)
Wilson (SS)