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Q. Can you give a real-life example of how this works?
A. Sure. When the Mariners traded for Erik Bedard, pundits calculated that Adam Jones -- by himself -- was worth far, far more than Bedard even if Bedard were completely healthy.
This calculation -- and the theoretical math is fairly sound, give or take a UZR argument or two -- stated that the first two years of Adam Jones was worth more than a healthy Bedard, and so of course six years' worth of Adam Jones dwarfed a healthy Bedard's value.
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Q. That seems crazy. Is it? Why?
A. As SSI protested at the time, you don't get to delta Adam Jones against zero. Adam Jones' delta must be against your projection for whoever your other best young outfielder is going to be.
The real world, of course, proved SSI to be 100% correct in this.
Jack Zduriencik traded about 20% of a sore-armed closer for Franklin Gutierrez, in CF, and Gutierrez himself has averaged $19.5M -- per year -- above replacement.
Meanwhile, Adam Jones has averaged $8.3M per year above RLP.
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Erik Bedard had to be delta'ed, too .... but there's a big difference. We know #5 SP's to be lousy.
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Q. So in theory, Adam Jones wasn't worth a hundred million dollars to the M's?
A. In theory, he was. In reality he wasn't. That's the lesson learned here.
In the real world, in 2009-10, Adam Jones would have been worth a huge NEGATIVE sum to the Mariners.
The Mariners would, in the real world, have profited by waiving Adam Jones. Because then they went out and deployed a better player.
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Q. Is this the way business calculations are done?
A. Sure. In calculating a Justin Upton's worth, the Mariners have to plug in Michael Saunders** as Scenario B, not a replacement player. And they have to realistically project Saunders.
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Q. So Upton must be delta'ed against Saunders?
A. No! He must be delta'ed against the very best you can do in LF in 2011-15, including trades.
The reality, in 2008-09, was that Jack Zduriencik was able to trade for Franklin Gutierrez. If you slot Justin Upton into your #3 OF slot -- your fourth and last RF-LF-CF-1B slot -- you've got to delta Upton against the very best you can do there.
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Q. What is the best you can do in LF, the next five years?
A. Well, it includes (1) Michael Saunders, (2) NPB players, (3a) Whoever Capt. Jack could deal our talent-soggy cupboard for, (3b) FA's purchased at bargains, (4) Nick Franklin and Carlos Triunfel, (5) Johermyn Chavez, (6) Mark Reynolds, (7) the Field in our minors sytem...
Upton would be in a Tiger Woods situation, in which The Field is always odds-on. There might be one single best golfer, but he's got to beat the hot hand that day...
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I've got an inkling that Nick Franklin is going to be beee-eeegg, that he's going to be here in 2012, and that he's going to have to play LF. You've got to deal with that.
:shrug: How about all the Carl Crawford types out there, guys signed at bargains who are still too pricey for small markets? Capt Jack can't trade for one of those guys?
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