Mystery Prospect, 2

=== Reconciliation Dept. ===

If the world is right and HQ wrong, the explanation is simple:  HQ just got it wrong.   If HQ wrote the above, after watching the player that Baseball America saw, their file folder needs kerosene and a match.

Or, if HQ is right and the world is way wrong, the explanation is a bit more nuanced:  the world fell in love with Morban's gorgeous swing and mis-interpreted the beauty of the swing motion as professionalism at the plate.

.

=== First Feedback Dept. ===

In the AZL, the high-school-aged Morban hit for a Jason Voorhees-level 0.14 EYE -- 7 walks and 49 strikeouts ... a feeble 68% contact rate ...

And outstanding power, with 9 doubles, 7 triples, and 5 homers in 42 games.  That's a full season 35 doubles, 25 triples and 20 homers despite fanning in 1/3 of his AB's. 

He SLG'ed .503 despite a sub-.300 OBP.  Morban had more extra-base hits than he did singles.

...........

So in the AZL at least, Morban performed according to HQ's assessment -- very raw, but with sky-high upside, including plus power. 

Not that an 18-year-old's future is static, but this is the AZL season of a future #4 or #5 hitter, as opposed to a table-setter or a high-OBP #3 hitter.

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=== ML Archetype Dept. ===

Another low-bodyfat, fast, leverag-y LH with a poor EYE, a pretty swing and hit-for-the-cycle versatility was Garret Anderson.

It's funny; I can think of a billion RH's who fit this description ...

  • Low bodyfat
  • Fast
  • Tall and leverag-y
  • Dubious EYE
  • Sweet swing
  • Hit-for-the-cycle

.... such as Adam Jones, Alfonso Soriano, both Uptons, even Mike Cameron and Torii Hunter ... but from the left side?  It's hard to think of lefties with pretty swings who maintain lousy EYE ratios (and considering the competition, Morban's EYE in the AZL was pretty weird).

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=== GA's Career Path ===

Just for fun, Anderson's career developed like this:

  • Age 18:  Terrible results in AZL, rookie, and short-season (SLGS under .300)
  • Age 19:  Weak year in full season class A (.360 SLG, didn't walk, we presume)
  • Age 20:  Empty .300 AVG (but .300) in high-A and AA; jelled this year
  • Age 21:  League-average hitter in AAA
  • Age 22:  .300/.360/.500 in AAA, cup of coffee in bigs
  • Age 23:  .320/.360/.500 in major leagues

GA then regressed throughout his 20's, being a mediocre player in the bigs, until he jelled as an MVP candidate at 29-30-31.

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=== Pollyanna Dept. ===

Maybe that's because such lefties tend not to stay in the 0.30's with their EYEs.  Carlos Beltran came up with a terrible EYE, an exciting gap-power game, and morphed into a .280/.380/.550 MVP candidate in center.

This would also explain the scouts' characterization of an 'advanced' approach; maybe their intuition is simply telling them that he will be advanced.

Beltran is listed at 6-1, 190, as is Julio Morban.

Cheers,

Dr D





Comments

1
RockiesJeff's picture

Doc, nice to have a surprise at a high number.  Hopefully that value will be seen by all in the next couple of years.  Thanks for good article!

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