Chris Young Goes from Outlier to Outstanding
And yet he's still an outlier ... and that's good

 

At first Chris Young was defying gravity.

Now, he's still defying gravity ... it's just that he doesn't depend on it anymore.

 

  • Young is the only qualifying pitcher to have more than 50% of batted balls result in fly balls, and he's at 58%.

 

  • Young is the only qualifying pitcher anywhere near 10% of batted balls resulting in popups (he's at 8.7%).  Second place is 5.9%.  That's 20-ish more "automatic outs" on balls-in-play than any other pitcher gets in a season.

 

  • That's why I dubbed him "Inverse Ichiro" -- he achieves an unusual amount of success by denying singles by inducing hitters to hit into the air; Ichiro achieves an unusual amount of success by acquiring singles by hitting balls on the ground.  They are both what we'd call "outliers."

 

  • Through mid-June, the "Inverse Ichiro" thing was all Young had going for him.

 

  • From mid-June on, he's become (once again) a very good MLB starter AND he's still  "Inverse Ichiro" (his popup rate clicked up to 11% in July).

 

  • This "double whammy" does not show up in stats that normalize for BABIP.  Young's BABIP-against doesn't normalize.

Full article (two parts) here.

Home page here.

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