I know I sound like a broken record...but an 11 man staff is actually-realistically a 10 man staff (and five man pen). After opening day there is almost always somebody with a tweaked toe, a blister, a bicep itch, a big booger or a hangover....
They are out for 3-5 days...but not DL stuff. So you're automatically down to 10 for 4 games. IF you get 27 batters out of each start then you can survive...but how often do you go through a rotation with each starter facing 27 batters?
Caution is the name of the game with pitchers. A tired arm overworked nukes a career (or that is the modern concern...Bob Gibson and Nolan Ryan and Warren Spahn would spit up their beer laughing at that...but we're dealing with MODERN CONCERNS).
You catch your catcher a couple of game too many and he has tired legs. Big whoop...he can't run worth a hoot anyway (again...modern evaluation).
If 11 man staffs were doable...everybody would do them and we would take about the potential advantage of 10 man staffs.
For a short stint.....and early in the season might work well...you can go with 11. It doesn't fly for more than a short stint. Even early in the season... as you are trying to get you #1's and #2's to stretch out a bit you may still need the extra arm.
Keeping 11 arms means we get to keep Hannahan or Langerhans or Garko (I might go for it if the result was Corey Patterson just because I'm rooting for him)...hardly the stuff that gets us into October.
Keeping 12 means you don't wear out Tex or League or Kelley or someone....Keeping 11 means you don't wear out Kotchman.
It ain't the same thing.
Keith
=== Compass Rosy ===
Notes a Cactus League attendance figure of 13,444.
My wife and I would go to the Kingdome in the early 1980's and, on a weekday, the attendance would be 3,000 to 5,000. I've never really shaken that off -- we still go down to Safeco on a Tuesday and half-expect to be the only, literally the only, fans in a particular section of the top deck.
Those M's would get 20,000 or 25,000 to Saturday games. And 30,000 on a giveaway. Just a baseball game on Thusday? 13,444 would have been double, triple the usual crowd.
Needless to say, MLB insiders blasted Seattle. Your fault. Not a baseball town. Check the Fox ratings this June, pokeys. In the 1970's and 1980's, the Pacific Northwest was the untapped Alaskan reserve of ad revenue.
.........
Rosy opines, sorta, that the flat play last week ... six losses in a row ... were probably just dog days of spring.
In this case, I'll buy it. Gingerly. Yeah, probably it was just boredom.
.
=== Dead Cat's Bounce ===
Gomez with a smokin' post that advises the M's to go with 11 pitchers, even sans Mr. October. (We know, we know, they've already said it's 12 if there's no Lee.)
He correctly notes that it's only a question of giving up a few of your switchouts.
I mean, think about it. You've got five guys handling the first 6 innings, and the other six guys can't cover the other 3 innings? That is absurd on the face of it.
There isn't any inherent reason you couldn't use 11 without Lee, but of course part of it is that they're imagining the deal if they have to remove the 3-4-5 early, all in a row.
..............
1) Platooning your offense is a huge, huge advantage. 2) This offense needs SOMEthin' to its advantage.
In the 2010 Mariners' case, the 5th benchie isn't a convenience. It's a desperate, logical, and necessary attempt to field a respectable offense.
.
=== ProBall NW ===
With an 18-team mixed league that drafted Saturday. No followup? Hey, guys, I wouldn't mind seeing a rundown as to how the draft went.
Like, LABR style, maybe where the owners list their favorite and least-favorite picks? You'd have one reader, anyway. :- )
Next year we could have a UEFA Champions League, top 4 from each blog get the millions, bottom three relegated...
SSI was toying with the idea of a 12-team AL only and a jumbo 20-team mixed league, like in 2008 was it? Jemanji has considerably more time this year than the last two...
If there were a clamor and Mikey Jay were my huckleberry again, we'd probably figger somethin' out. Even let him commish :- )
Cheers,
Jeff
Comments
In a sense, so did Earl, though he used 9-man staffs... ."It's a long season," he'd say, and you don't want to burn your starters out in April...
For sure that is what Wok will be thinking when he takes 12 pitchers: that his starters are susceptible to being knocked out...
...................
What is not being considered is: (1) this offense needs help, and
(2) Our defense and park make life easy on pitchers. I read it on the 'net. :- )
RRS, Snell, Vargas
Even assuming 7 innings each time by both Felix and Lee, that back end of the rotation is all kinds of wobbly. Aardsma is wobbly. League is a 1-year wonder (at the moment), and Kelley has 46 innings of MLB experience with a 1.8 HR/9 career number.
Why do you need 12 pitchers in April? Because ***EVERY*** April in MLB is the period where you figure out which of your guys are for real and which are pretenders. And you have to dump the pretenders, and plug in your next set of hopefuls. (And that doesn't even count injuries).
Has EVERYONE forgotten that Corcoran was an integral part of the bullpen in April of '09? And after he imploded, (7.27 ERA by April 28th), who replaced him? Denny Stark, who thrilled to the tune of a 6.55 ERA for his one-month trial. What about Jaku? He was the ST darling. He finished April with a 5.23 ERA, and finished May with a 6.45 ERA, at which point, his career as a starter was finished.
Why does the club need 12 pitchers? Because TODAY - the bullpen STINKS. It's not good. It has some small hope of becoming good. But, at this point the ENTIRE bullpen has one arm, (Lowe), who can make a reasonable claim to having previously shown consistent solid performance.
The club WISHES it had someone as "reliable" (and I use that word with a ton of sarcasm) as Batista to settle the pen.
There is not one shred of SABR evidence to support the notion of the 2010 Seattle bullpen as being anything more than a work in progress.
Maybe Cordero comes through. Maybe Aardsma and League can reproduce '09 results. Maybe French isn't nearly as much a stiff in the bullpen as he was in the rotation.
April will be a shakeout period. And it is likely somebody will do their best EOF ('08) impression. Each year, there are guys that bring excitement. Be it someone like Dickey - or Jaku.
Has everyone forgotten the disaster that was '08 was largely led by the imploding bullpen when Putz floundered and Morrow was erratic, and the bullpen was "bailed out" by Corcoran?
The 2010 bullpen for the Ms has "potential" to be pretty good. They have an almost equal potential to be very, very, very bad. You need 12 pitchers ESPECIALLY in April, because you want to be able to figure out who to keep for the long haul as quickly as possible - and that kid throwing in Tacoma when the club is losing 5-2 in the 6th isn't going to help answer that question.
The 3-4-5 is not pennant-class.
.................
Brock and Salk said that they texted Washburn YESTERDAY, and the M's hadn't contacted him at all.
I assume, based on their lassez-faire attitude to this mess, that the M's expect Bedard back May 1. It's possible.
Here's a link to the team-by-team results. Note, you've gotta be logged in to yahoo to view it.http://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/b1/162530/draftresults?drafttab=...
My team is the Dingy Sox. My favorite pick for my team was Zobrist in the third. His flexibility as a SS, 2B, and OF is the lynchpin of my entire team.
My least favorite pick for my team was O-Cab in the 17th. Sure, he's a starting SS for the Reds. But I passed over far superior players at positions where I had holes to fill to get him.
I do really like my flier on Westbrook in the last round.
I think Eggs Ackley had the best draft. It seemed that every pick he came up with resulted in my ooo-ing and aaah-ing.
Biggest reach, in my opinion, was 200tang's RRS at 195. His Homer Bailey at 310, though, was genius. Josh Wilson Is Bad may have gotten a steal getting Seth Smith in the second to last round at 352. Inspired!
There's not a bad team in this league, which is what happens when you get a group of smart n' sexy M's bloggers together. I'm very happy with this league.
:daps:
When get some time, am gonna pur-view it... rock on guys...
My internet cut out a few times and I didn't always have my queue in order, which led to me picking JJ Hardy and Jeff Clement in the 10th and 11th rounds, or about 10 rounds too early for both. Ugh. Reached a bit on Wade Davis too, I think. But overall I think I did alright. Much better than the 18 team H2H we did the week prior.