Kyle Zimmer, RHP, USF - SSI pre-draft $0.01

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=== You Won't Get Any Arguments About ... ? ===

... Zimmer being one of the Big Three college pitchers this year, a guy sure to be gone in the first ten picks, and a reasonable 1-1 pick.

... His development arc being Taijuan Walker amazing.  He went to USF as a hitter, a real good one, but... well, he got moved the mound in 2010 almost as a joke, threw all of 5 innings that year, then BOOM in 2011 he is suddenly a Friday Night caliber major-college starter.  It's as if he walked in off the street and just started beating all the best people in college - in 2011 he won a famous duel with Gerrit Cole and UCLA in the playoffs.

Then in 2012 he's had arguably the best season of any college starter.

... His having major league TOR stuff right now (sits 92-96 with the fastball, touches 99, throws a rainbow assortment of offspeed pitches including a bombshell 12-6 curve).  Even in the videos of him in the bullpen, the ball jumps out of his hand like it's 102 MPH.

... His having good makeup.

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=== What's Fresh About 'Im? ===

It's always chill when a player's own coach is his biggest fan.  That was the way with Tim Lincecum, with Dustin Ackley, and it's typical of college draftees who wind up not disappointing.  Zimmer's own coach says that if he makes it to the Mariners (at number three!) that he'll be "shocked."  I dig that endorsement.

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Zimmer does indeed remind of a time-shifted, collegiate phantasm of Taijuan Walker.  His mechanics are very simple and compact, almost naive.  He keeps the hands low, kicks the leg comfortably and just lets his arm do the talking, as Taijuan does.  

Zimmer, however, does a much better job than Taijuan of clearing his torso parallel to the ground, bringing the back foot up, clearing the arm through and finishing nose-to-leather.  The minor jerk of the head during pull-through is a quibble at his stage of development.

This suggests that Zimmer might even add velocity.  In 2011, some people complained about Zimmer not holding velocity late into games... slap me silly, the kid had absolutely zero strength buildup to work with.  Now in 2012 he's already credited with plus stamina.  It really is quite amazing the rate of Zimmer's career acceleration.  I'd like to know which pitcher, ever, learned more quickly.

Taijuan Walker made a dodo out of Dr. D with his quick development not just in stuff, but in his control, command and pitchability.  It's probable that Zimmer's early-on "natural feel for pitching" will translate to later-on "virtuosity" as Taijuan's is doing.  Compare Felix too.  A 2nd-year pitcher who pitches is liable to become quite the master of his domain a few years on.

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Don't undersell Zimmer's velocity.  He has touched 99 and from the vids I've seen, he's the definition of "late life," a ball that explodes in the last few feet.  Brandon Morrow style.

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It's fresh that Zimmer can spin a 77-MPH change curve that crackles like Josh Beckett's.  He gets low marks for his changeup, but the ones I've seen on the 'net, I had to rewind to make sure they weren't fastballs.  He zipped the arm through on one pitch, the camera faded back to show an 84 on the gun, and I went whaaaaa?  Was the gun off track or something?   Here's a page with about 15-20 minutes' worth of video on Zimmer; the pitch in question is in there somewhere.  >:-]

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Zimmer's got the collegiate K/BB at 104/17 in 88 innings and he has not dropped off against tough competition.

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Scouts obviously love the lack of mileage on his arm; here's one kid you know didn't ever throw 140 pitches in any high school games... Dr. D always thinks of Trevor Hoffman when he thinks of converted position players.

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NEXT

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Comments

2
glmuskie's picture

Thanks for all the pre-draft write-ups, doc.
Your analysis, for me, cuts through the clutter more than others, because phrases like 'lacks bat speed' and 'doesn't have projectable power' and things like that you hear from everywhere else are kind of meaningless. You go in to the 'whys' more, and also don't couch your reservations with tentative assertions, like with Buxton's swing.
I'll take the man with an opinion over the man I agree with, 99 times out of a hundred.
Zimmer sounds awfully intriguing, and I hadn't read much about him before. Since this draft is so wide and flat, I think the M's will be taking the most *unique* talent they think is there, which leads me towards Giolito or Correa. After reading this, I'd say Zimmer is in the mix too.

4

These days with the F/X system we come to realize that all these guys have the same 5" x 7" armside movement that everybody else does.  LOL.  You're throwing a baseball 90 MPH with 2000 RPM on it, and it swerves in the air.  Whether you're in high school, college or running a pitching machine.
"Clean mechanics" is another favorite... ask the author what's clean and what's dirty.  Ummmmm... ?
"Questionable bat speed" is one that gets me.  They'll apply it to a guy like Vinnie Catricala hitting 440-foot home runs off 95 fastballs ... you mean perceptive speed, reactive speed or throughspeed?  Does anybody have any idea what batspeed is?  Bill James has a discussion going on now wherein he argues that LACK OF batspeed is an advantage, because it keeps the bat in the zone longer.  ???  
Point is, these subjects are not well understood in the first place, and here you have a 'net rat applying labels to guys based on YouTube vids...
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Anyway thanks for the props GL.  That actually is the goal here, to give 'concrete variations' as the Russian chessplayers say, so glad you feel like you're getting some of them ;- )

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