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Dr. D's sister-in-law is blonde, 6-foot-3 and 150 lbs.with ripped triceps, a triathlete, if that gives you the picture.  If you think you've never played basketball with a female who throws elbows with teeth gritted like a guy does, let me introduce the two of yer.

One time she and Dr. D were boxing, she with closed fists and Dr. D using two fingers to tap her cheekbones.  He tapped her a bit crisply and she went into pandemonium mode.  He backed up, laughing, hey, watch the control here, and called it off.  After he thought it was over, she came down the centerline with a bony set of knuckles and caught him right in the teeth.  Who knew she could hit like THAT.  Good thing my teeth are shorter than average.  None came out.

From an aiki standpoint, it taught Dr. D that when a train is coming, you step off the centerline; you don't back up directly on it.

The Mike Napoli tweets have had Dr. D laughing, but now come the last four bony knuckles down the centerline - that Napoli is in fact meeting with the Mariners, after Boston has hesitated on a fourth year.  Jack Zduriencik is apparently considering the top-hand-on-the-bat, and if he does it will apparently be a 4-year deal with Napoli to catch Opening Day.

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Q.  What is the basic case against?

A.  This Fangraphs article lists its favorite 25 free agent values this year, and also stamps the Skull-and-Crossbones poison yucky sticker on five big land mines - one of which is Napoli.  At three years.

The case is well reasoned; the author ticks off the negatives on his fingers, thumb-to-index, thumb-to-middle, thumb-to-ring finger, goes through the right hand and on to the left hand finishing "Too many red flags here."  Fair enough.

This argument says "Napoli isn't liable to play well next year, much less for four more years."  At 3/36 you're liable to waste fifteen million, it says there.

SSI concurs that if Mike Napoli were to crash, starting next season, it wouldn't shock anybody.  He's got plenty of the seismo's that presage a Richie Sexson dropoff -- as do 80% of free agents over the age of thirty.  Whether Napoli is particularly a player subject to quick aging ... let's split that out.

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Q.  What is the basic case for?

A.  That just in 2011, Mike Napoli was worth 6 WAR ... in two-thirds of a season! ... based on nothing given for position!

Napoli's lifetime slugging percentage is .507; Adrian Gonzalez also has a lifetime slugging percentage of .507. Mike Piazza, the greatest hitter who ever played catcher, had a lifetime slugging percentage of .512.   David Wright's is .506.  Troy Tulowitzki's is .504.   

And Napoli draws 70 walks per 162 games, so it's not like SLG is Napoli's only skill.  You are talking about a man whose production is loosely comparable to Prince Fielder's.  THAT's the case for.

Fangraphs says no way.  The Red Sox brain trust, and Mariner brain trust, says gimme gimme gimme.  SSI's task is to run through some of the talking points, so that Noble Readers can organize their own thinking.

Cheers,

Jeff

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