M's Lock Up AL West in May
Rays-Mariners games ain't for the faint of heart this year

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While the M's were spearfishing Drew Smyly and the home plate ump was spearfishing Evan Longoria, what happened to our AL West "rivals"?  (Dr. D learned on the BJOL chat boards that you use quotation marks to show contempt for mainstream ideas.  He's picked it up like Charly picking up the comma in the second chapter of Flowers for Algernon.)

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ANAHEIM ANGELS

Curb-stomped 8-1 by Mike Leake's 5.10 ERA.  The Cardinals piled up 14 hits and 4 homers, while the Angels suffered through innings 6-9 with less than a 1% chance of victory.  This dropped them to -6.5 behind the colossus in Seattle.  And, of course, they were able to follow the M's early 3-0 lead over the Rays even as their own immolation was occurring:

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Since roughly the time Garrett Richards bit the dust, the Angels have gone from 11-11 (.500) to -6 under (13-19).  They boast a run differential of -24 already.  On the bright side, Albert Pujols is batting .183.

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ORKLAND ORCS

Serious philosophical question:  would you rather lose tomorrow afternoon's game by 1-8 or by 5-13?  Factor in the idea that your Big Move, Sean Manea, is going to be thrummed for 10 hits and 8 earnies in two plus innings.

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Last 14 days, Kendall Graveman has a FIP of 8.76; Sonny Gray has a FIP of 6.49 with five walks per game, and Chris Bassitt has one start with 3.2 innings pitched.  Adding it all up, the A's have 10 pitchers (!) with FIPs between 5.01 and 10.59 the last two weeks.  They too are -6.5 behind the colossus and -11.5 combined back of first place.  Not too shabby for May 11th.

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HOUSTON ASTROS

Here we can wallow in the Astro fans' twisting in the wind of a four-hit shutout.   Inflicted by Trevor Bauer, whose lifetime ERA of 4.45 is slightly north of Chris Sale's.

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The won-loss record: 13-20.  The strikeouts:  327, or 9.9 per ballgame.  This creates a slight 327:246 problem in strikeout balance.  The playoff probabilities:  from 70% on Opening Day to 22% chance of the division now.

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TEXAS stRANGERS

Completely ruined what would have been an utterly epic pennant-race evening, with this sickening string of lucky hits:

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But Derek Holland was again KO'ed in the third.

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SEATTLE MARINERS

Fangraphs has our playoff odds at 54% for the division, 59% to make the playoffs.  Obviously the time to order your seats is "yesterday."  Scott Servais was asked why the M's are doing fine now in 1-run games.  "We have a good team," he replied.  Try to trim the fat out a little bit next time, Scott.

As the M's pistol-whip the rest of the division with their right hands, their lefts are reaching behind them for K-Pax starter reinforcements and Edwin Diaz bullpen rescue and Stefen Romeros and Mike Zuninos in case Clevenger fails to do good and who knows what else.  Reminds me of little Jeffy, age 5, playing Monopoly with his 15-year-old brother.  He'd pile the orange $500's two inches high, have hotels on six color groups, and frantically be trying to swindle me out of the railroads.  Jerry DiPoto has an unseemly taste for blood.

Question of the day:  why is our chance at the division 54% and Texas' only 16%?  I bet STEAMER has Nate Karns down for 26 wins.

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BABVA,

Dr D

Tags: 

Comments

1

Will leave the Lind issue for another day (but without some indication that he hasn't flat-lined, there will come a time that you let him change his scenery), but we can clearly upgrade, in terms of on-field production, from Sardinas and Clevenger.

I've beaten the O'Malley drum so long I shant do it here.  Even Taylor is a better guy to have (because he can hit some) than Sardinas.  At 22, Sardinas can't be that great of a clubhouse veteran presence that mandates his staying around Safeco.

It is possible that Clevenger is that kind of clubhouse guy, but with Cano-Cruz-Felix-Kuma-Seager'Aoki it isn't like we're devoid of those kind of guys.  Zunino is proving something; sooner of later he'll be here.

The question is really this:  When you're winning and things are fun, do you make two roster moves to make yourself better?

And if you decide Lind and Aoki have served their purpose, do you make 3 or 4?  

Dipoto gets the big bucks for exactly these kind of questions.  Me, were I the one getting the big bucks?  O'Malley yesterday; Zunino in 3 weeks; Romero when somebody tweaks something (as we will hold Lind and his career vR #'s for a bit, minus a sweet offer); And I don't know if I'm brave enough to declare Aoki as surplus and summon the Booger.

Your mileage may well vary.

2

Silentpadna and I have been hearing "if it ain't broke don't fix it" (no disrespect!) since July 2001 and have been tilting at windmills ever since.  When you are ahead you certainly want to avoid Cano + Cruz for Encarnacion + Bautista blockbusters, but you still want to remain dynamic at the fringes.  The Seahawks do, right?

Keep bringin' it Moe.  And the O'Malley shtick is NOT getting old.  

3

Two lines had me chuckling out loud:

"On the bright side, Albert Pujols is batting .183" - sums the Angel woes up nicely.

"We have a good team, he replied. Try to trim the fat out a little bit next time, Scott."

Anyway, as for me, I enjoy fat and juicy Ultimate Breakfast sandwiches from Seattle's best baseball writer. Little gems like these? It's like when they add a couple strips of bacon On the top.

4

The attaboys do send a blogger over to Listverse.com an extra time to poach a couple extra regurgitated quips ...

5
Tyler Durden's picture

don't try to fix it.

It's simple but true right now we don't need to change what is clearly working, As soon as we need to call up a player or five it's a very good news that people in AAA is doing good, I don't understand the urge to call up a guy who is doing good in Tacoma to give him 5 PA a week at best and we aren't giving our bench enough at-bats to justify trading places between Sardinas-Clevenger and O'Malley-Zunino.

 

6

I tend to take the opposite side of this general idea, but without a doubt there are times when the best moves are the ones you don't make.

Hope to hear more amigo!

7

Most of the time I'm on your side, but I think it doesn't help to call up a guy who is swinging a hot bat only to have him sat on the bench and with with Seager, Robbie and Marte doing well I don't see many AB for the backup infielder. 

8

Here's why Doc is Seattle's best baseball writer:

1. Doc is a fan first. He spares the reader the "I am an objective journalist, doing my job for you subjective, simple minded fans" shtick. But the difference is, he could easily fall into that attitude, and he would be successful, and perhaps increase readership, recognition and opportunities. But he doesn't. Hope and optimism is allowed here, encouraged and valued in the depths of despair. It's a Christian trait, which he allows to subtily influence his perspective on baseball, and existence. 

2. As a fan, Doc brings hard headed analysis, and backs it up, explains it with a unique perspective not found anywhere (aki, Fortune 500, sabermetrics, historical context, golf?! Chess?! Flag football?) while remaining a fan who is willing and able to bleed with the reader When heartache comes. Some use metaphors from other areas of life. Doc uses examples. Subtle but rich difference.

3. Funny stuff. Clever, clever stuff that seems to come effortlessly. His shtick is almost perfectly pitched. Now, by sticking "almost" in there, I help keep him humble. He will appreciate that because...

4. Doc connects with his readers. He values their own insights and perspectives. he bleeds with us. He is what's right with the Internet. He attracts the intelligent fan and give him the benefit of listening. A good writer listens as much as he talks because it's how he connects with the reader. And he has been wise enough to know and appreciate that his intelligent readership has made him a more engaging writer. Sometimes, not often, but sometimes, you gotta suffer the fools. Doc knows when to suffer the fools, because he likes people, and values the humanity and at times insight they carefully hide, for whatever the reason. Again, it's a Christian trait: to evangelize in order to help effect change. Without being schmaltzy (he can trash talk, even if it's for entertainment value) he makes the Internet a better place.

5. I read Doc for the baseball but I stay because I learn far more than baseball when I do.

 

9

Was a tough read for me.  Watch yourself Rick.  If I don't put it into a front-page article I'll probably delete it later.

Very gracious my friend.

10

I've always felt very welcomed at SSI and in no small part due to Doc's nature and willingness to engage, along with the other usual suspects  (i.e. SSI denizens,  you know who you are.)  I'm here for the baseball wisdom, insights and schtick. Life's lessons can be learned via baseball and reading posts on SSI, truly an Internet(s) marvel, as Dubya might put it.  Ironically,  i've not gotten a similar reception from Geoff Baker.  On those occasions I have attempted to engage with him he has resorted to insults, one-liners and a sense of entitlement in his responses.  Due to his personal rudeness towards me I stopped reading him a couple years back.  No ill-will intended, just my take on the guy.  God bless SSI and all its readers and contributors.   The warmth and passion of its expression makes this place a beacon on the horizon (or internets).

11

Sorry you had that experience with him.  Personally haven't seen much of it but thanks for sharing.

And thanks for the kind words!  Probably will find the time to get an extra article up now ;- ) ... one shtick module per gushing glorification of the Almighty Mainframe ...

You guys are killin' us here :- )

12

.....if Doc, at age 5, was naive enough to get swindled out of the Reading, Shortline, Pennsylvania and B & O?

My bet is that he offered up the Shortline and B & O, an aging bat and a AA prospect, thereby fleecing his brother out of Park Place and Boardwalk.

Nefariously clever he is.

If you play a board game with him--chess, checkers or Monopoly, makes no difference--then (to quote his ownself) "Be afraid; be very afraid!"

Moe

13

Lost my first game as a 5-year-old and since then, went 9,062-0 at Monopoly, Risk, Supremacy and my track record of delver deaths as a Dungeon Master was a simple matter of history.

/kidding

Something tells me that you wouldn't want to sit down to Hold 'Em with Keith at the 19th Hole.

14

My goodness, I might have spent a gazillion hours at marathon Risk, back in the day.

Entrench in Madagascar was an appealing strategy.  It never worked.

16

Very viable strategy if your initial deployment allows: Entrench in Australia with impregnable feet planted firmly in two adjoining territories that block the path through Siam. Make sure if you can that no one is able to put a powerful force in China. Let the rest of the players duke it out and dilute their strength while you build yours. Try your best as long as you can to keep an enclave somewhere on the globe where you can take one territory every turn at a cost that's not too expensive (so you can continue to gain card sets).

It's not a sure thing, but nothing is sure in Risk.

17

The Trevor Bauer reference made me look up this (just out of curiosity, not masochism):

Year RdPck Tm Name Pos WAR ▾ G AB HR BA OPS G W L ERA WHIP SV Type Drafted Out of
2011 14 Marlins Jose Fernandez (minors) RHP 10.5 54 97 54 26 11 2.54 1.05 0 HS Braulio Alonso HS (Tampa, FL)
2011 18 Athletics Sonny Gray (minors) RHP 10.0 83 8 83 36 24 3.11 1.17 0 4Yr Vanderbilt University (Nashville, TN)
2011 1 Pirates Gerrit Cole (minors) RHP 7.8 81 153 79 43 23 3.12 1.16 0 4Yr University of California, Los Angeles (Los Angeles, CA)
2011 11 Astros George Springer (minors) OF 7.4 214 812 42 .255 .812 4Yr University of Connecticut (Storrs, CT)
2011 6 Nationals Anthony Rendon (minors) 3B 7.0 364 1408 35 .270 .752 4Yr Rice University (Houston, TX)
2011 8 Indians Francisco Lindor (minors) SS 5.9 129 506 14 .312 .822 HS Montverde HS (Montverde, FL)
2011 29 Giants Joe Panik (minors) SS 5.0 202 763 12 .300 .777 4Yr St. John's University (Queens, NY)
2011 22 Cardinals Kolten Wong (minors) 2B 3.5 324 1086 24 .248 .669 4Yr University of Hawaii at Manoa (Honolulu, HI)
2011 40 Red Sox *Jackie Bradley (minors) OF 3.4 270 813 18 .226 .676 4Yr University of South Carolina (Columbia, SC)
2011 3 Diamondbacks Trevor Bauer (minors) RHP 2.9 74 14 74 21 24 4.45 1.37 0 4Yr University of California, Los Angeles (Los Angeles, CA)
2011 25 Padres Joe Ross (minors) RHP 2.9 25 40 22 8 7 3.21 1.11 0 HS Bishop O'Dowd HS (Oakland, CA)
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/11/2016.

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That would be the 10 best first-round picks from the 2011 draft sorted by career WAR to date.  [This is one use of WAR that quite serves its purpose.]

Not showing up there is Javier Baez of the Cubs, who would be considered in the top 10 for sure but hasn't built up enough WAR yet in a couple of partial seasons.

Also not showing up, because drafted in the 2nd round, is Brad Miller with 3.8.

Others not from the 1st round who would show up (I only went thru round 10):

Mookie Betts Boston 5th -- 9.1

Marcus Semien ChiSox 6th -- 4.8

Ken Giles Phillies 7th -- 3.2

Kyle Hendricks Texas 8th -- 4.8

Travis Shaw Boston 9th -- 2.9 

Carson Smith with 2.7 is close.

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M's drafted Danny Hultzen at No. 2, of course.

I recall Gordon being big on Rendon and Springer, and maybe the only one anywhere putting Springer as worth No. 2 overall.

I recall being about the only SSI supporter of Cole, although it was moot since the Pirates nabbed him anyway.

Bauer was heavily advocated by others, but I was lukewarm.  Jury's still out, but he doesn't look like a star.  Of course, Hultzen is nothing at the moment, so you'd take Bauer over him head-to-head.

I was a Sonny Gray supporter early, although I think everyone had him slipping down to the middle of round 1 by draft day.  He was right up there with Cole and Bauer at the start of the college season though.

I recall absolutely zero Jose Fernandez discussion and I actually was surprised to realize that he was in this draft.  You're not supposed to take a high school pitcher in the top 5 I guess, but he's certainly one who should have been.  Wow.

I remember really hoping Jackie Bradley would fall to Seattle's 2nd round pick, but Boston snagged him at No. 40.  He's just starting to bust out big.  He was an awesome college player -- just oozed leadership.

So the Hultzen bust is balanced somewhat by Miller and Smith -- who, at the end of the day, were the main pieces that produced Karns and Miley.  Just like the Ackley bust is balanced by Seager.

Even so, there was a lot of talent there that plausibly could have been had, and the M's have squat.

19

Is this not on the front page Spec?  If you rejoined us as a guest columnist we could pole-vault to your subscription blog as soon as you had it up.

If you don't promote it, I will ...

BTW amigo if it offers any consolation, your situation was part of a greater fat-trimming context that touched us all.  My own scenario was fine by me if it offers the community a years-long sustainability.  Still regret some of the details bro'.

Sure look forward to your additions when you have time.

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Agreed 100% that this is one of the best uses of Win Shares / WAR.  +1

20

I think it's unfair to compare a 'when it moves me' blogger (no disrespect intended) to a baseball beat writer.  First year beat writers call it 'a dream job'--until their first August on the beat.  From then on, in perpetuity, it's a slog.  So hats off to the Divish's and Dutton's of the world.

On the other hand, 'columnist's', 'analysts', etc., get no such pass.  And compared to these guys, Doc is #1 with a bullet.

Since the likes of Calkins and Baker and Thiel and now Larry Stone and every last one of the paid screamers on sports radio are expected to also comment on other sports, maybe you could also give them a partial pass.

But I don't.  Not one can match Doc in terms of insight or mental dexterity.  It's not even close.

Tip of the hat.

21

Anything but ANYthing becomes hard work once it's a gig.  But without any exaggeration, you guys take most of the edge off the grind.

After this morning, Dr. D finds himself highly motivated ... were that y'all's intentions, you certainly nailed it dead solid perfect...

23

...connect on facebook to the Mariners' official page and drop a few links with your commentary from here...the Mariner facebook page has like 1.35 million likes and over 800k follows...thousands of active commenters...

24

I'd said 'hello' to the guys on Mariner Central and post there once in a while now to get a conduit going back and forth.  As to this far more robust step you mention... how does one 'connect on Facebook'?  :- )  First I'd have to set up some kind of Facebook page thingie, right?

Honestly, if you could give an actionable task list 1, 2, 3, 4 I would appreciate it Matty...

First I guess I'll have to ask if Klat runs an SSI Facebook page.

25

Cindy showed me where that Facebook thingie is, and commenting looks simple enough for poor ol' Dr. D.  Thanks for the heads-up Matt.

26

My 80+ year old grandmother...whose reaction to a tablet was "I hate this thing...don't know how to use it!!"...uses Facebook to stay in touch with the fam. :)

Once you have an account, make your personal page banner an SSI banner...post links to each article you write, and start "friending" and "liking" and link-sharing baseball-related content that has a chance of drawing interest here...including pages like the Seattle Mariner official page, the various other blog sites, the Seattle Times...etc.

27

Doc is to be commended for promoting and policing the best tone I have experienced in a baseball blog -- over the long haul too.  Many of us have enjoyed years of crud-free engagement -- even if lurking from afar.  Kudos to all who 'keep to the code'.  There is, however, one GLARING deficiency, the near total dearth of inspiring sports poetry.  *grins* 

29

At your service, sir.

Still dealing with fallout from selling our house of 20 years, moving to an apartment, and opening my big fat mouth during drivers' license renewal. Before opening said mouth I was on unofficial doctor's recommendation that I hold off driving for six months. After opening that aperture with an overabundance of honesty in answer to a stock question about my health, a chain of events was set in motion that cost me my driving privileges, perhaps for good (yet TBD).

Trying to keep my comments here and on FB to a minimum, 'cause once you SAY something you gotta DEFEND it. No energy to do so.

I'm watchin' the games, though, and enjoyin' me some winning baseball.

Thanks for thinkin' of me, Doc.

30

Don't underestimate the remarkably troll-free atmosphere that Doc has cultivated here - that's what I enjoy most. 'Cheerful and positive' is not a common theme among internet fan communities, where mean snark and personal attacks seem to be the norm.  

31

And the community seems to have gathered those M's fans who share the sentiment.  It's all the difference.

Who knows, maybe we're ready for another pass at the Konspiracy Korner articles while doing better in that department ...

32

Oh, and of course I agree about the qualities of SSI. Thanks, Doc.

33

I have always loved SSI because it offers a different perspective on a lot of matters, but always discussed in civil and friendly way and without that "now I explain what you would be better thinking" attitude I really dislike.

34
Montucky's picture

I would, like everyone else here, be compelled to speak to the glory that is SSI. This site puts out the best original content and is a beautiful mix of characters, while somehow dodging most of those people that live under the bridge. 

Awhile back, sometime around Matty's Capital Punishment article/conversation, I was thinking intently about the amazing civil discussion on this site. I felt genuinely proud to have this little corner, a nook even, where I could snuggle up (mentally) and just listen to brillance.  I had a nice moment of clarity and saw SSI as the tower of babel. Stay with me here, please excuse the, uuhh, right hand turn. Like I said, I was thinking of this before and reading through all the wonderful and true things said above, it kinda pop back up again AND since I wasn't the first to bring up religion, we're all good, right? 

Moving forward, Jesus sent peoples to the corners of the earth and gave them different languages to confuse them. Because, when they lived together with the same tongue there was NOTHING they couldn't accomplish (as proved by the construction of the tower).  

To me, the Internet is the first floor on the rebuilding of that tower, although mathematics would be the right answer. Generally, the Internet gives most of humanity a common voice. Above the Internet dregs, on the next floor, maybe multiple floors up (piling, piling ;) is where communication happens. And it's special when you see peoples ideas going back and forth, in the right way. It helps when Doc is there, so direct and gentle at the same time.  That collective conversation allowed me a glimpse of where humanity could be if we all could just find a way to work together. Fact: SSI is either it's own floor or is a sturdy section of this high rise. 

36

It's kind of the most important precondition for SSI shtick, that you're incoherent in one way or another when you post. 

If we're minding our Scriptural P's and Q's, it was Gen. 11 that brought the Tower of Babel scattering and in 1 Cor. 10 (that's First Corinithians, Donald, not One Corinthians) Paul emphasized that it was indeed Jesus making these decisions.  So you were right all along :- )

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I couldn't agree with your basic point more, and it's a fascinating one.  Gen. 11 says that if the whole world could communicate, then "nothing will be restrained from them, which they imagine to do."  The earth's scientists have been truly collaborating since when ... oh, 1900 A.D.?  And bang, millenia of primitive tech spirals within a few generations into 3D printing and genetic engineering and thought-driven machines and who knows what Google is up to.

What technology would you rule out over the next 100 years?

According to this logic, which may or may not be necessarily inferred, the Earth's timeline would therefore be in the final stages (since the Babel Strategy has been cancelled).  Not that I'm a End of Time kinda guy.

37

Almost inclines me to bring back the social threads that 80%, 90% of posters found nourishing.  And thanks again.

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