Michael Saunders: Dr's R/X
One extra buttermilk biscuit, Mikey

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Several amigos asked for the POTD on the slump, which has been brutal ... Saunders the last 30 days has slugged .210, and any resemblance to baseball living or dead has been purely coincidental.

It's a funny thing, because Saunders' swing doesn't look off kilter or anything like that.  He's keeping his "ki" up the middle, is staying compact on followthru, yada yada.  Also, his component stats don't show anything much out of alignment -- his line drive rate is good, his EYE is 0.45 the last month ... what, we've just got six weeks of catastrophic bad luck? NNNAAaaaahhhhh...

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Q.  How is he seeing the ball?

A.  The last month, he swung at a mere 20% of balls and fully 67% of strikes.  That's a sensational split; you'd think he was Kevin Youkilis or Nick Franklin.

His EYE, that is his K/BB ratio, is better than average by his own standards.  Neither is his swing-and-miss ratio a problaim-oh ... that's only 9% the last month.

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Q.  Terrible bad luck on balls in play?

A.  Not terrible, no.  His BABIP is .264, which is firmly in the "mehh" category.  Mehhh is not the same as "please blow my head off, somebody."  Granted his HR per fly ball is zilch this month, but those fly balls haven't exactly pushed outfielders against the track, not that I've noticed.

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Q.  How about the other saber stuff?

A.  We looked at all of it.  We'll give you the Exec Sum.  There's no "there" there.  You could take any of the 9,000 component stats on Fangraphs, and they'd all fit right in with a hot month just as well as a cold one.  No use, our straining out gnats and swallowing camels.

Well, except maybe that his power stats, like HR/F, are out of alignment a tadbit...

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Q.  Come up to the lab, see what's on the slab.

A.  At D-O-V Central, the swing goes under the microscope and ... 

You gotta look pretty hard.  Here is a fly ball to the opposite field from a week ago ... here is a fly ball to the opposite field from April, and this one cleared the fence.

The swing in the white home uniform is from the June slump.  The blue road uniform is the April homer.  

At launch, the "slump" fly ball has a more upright bat ... aiki-Doc gets the impression that Saunders is leaning over the plate - bending over at the waist - just imperceptibly more.  Then the arc of the bat is less parallel, less "Keep the Bat In the Zone a Long Time" (KBIZLT).  First the slump, then the early homer:

At thru-swing, the "slump" fly ball gives the aiki impression of being a bit more of an arm swing -- it feels more "static" to me.  Which would go along with a strained over-bend at the waist* (Mo' Dawg could comment on a golf swing at which the golfer was overbalanced frontward).

Visually, in the above still shots, Saunders actually looks a little more bent over in the second (good) photo.  But that's deceiving.  In the first (bad) photo, he's in the process of leaning forward as he swings.  The second (good) photo, he starts leaned over a bit, but his legs are springy, his weight underside and he's nicely balanced.  The June swing, he feels off balance to me.  Mo', your opinion?

In the homer swing - check the video - there is a feel of acceleration, as you can see in the extension of the trailing arm.  By contrast, the trailing arm in the "slump" lets go of the bat early.  Okay, first the "slump" swing, then the "early homer" swing:

See how that second swing has a flowering, whole-hearted "praying mantis" blossom at the key moment?  Sign of good acceleration.

..........

All of this may indeed be straining at gnats.  These differences are within normal fluctuation from one day to the next.  But for what it's worth, the "slump" swing feels to me like it is:

  • A little bit "leaned forward"
  • Static, in the arms, due to the bend at the waist
  • Cramped in the followthrough
  • Using a swing plane that is less parallel to the ground
  • By the way, he's bobbing his hands up and down a bit more, the infamous "hitch"
  • (Check comments for Nathan's remarks on his forward leg travel)
  • (Check comments for Mo' Dawg's remarks on 3/4 swings in golf)
  • (Check comments for PHXTerry's reminder about the injured shoulder)

Michael Saunders, when he is racking up 4-5 WAR out there, still ain't ever gonna be an OBP guy.  His money comes in the SLG category.

He's got to slug .475 to be a good player; his game is .260/.320/.480, with speed and bunting as the ice cream sidecar on the soda glass.  He's got no homers lately.  This is a ballplayer who needs to really let that bat fly and not worry about contact.  

When he squares it up, he needs to hit the ball 385 rather than 350.  That extra biscuit is key for him, it says here.

Mostly, he's just had a run of realllllyyy bad luck.  But if I were him, I'd sink the knees and get a little lower to the ground, get the bat parallel, and go after a few 440-footers up the middle.  Then the grounders would start missing the infielders, probably.

Or not,

Dr D

 

Blog: 

Comments

1

...and that is in his stance before the pitch arrives...in the slump photo he has a completely closed stance...front foot slightly closer to the plate than back foot...in the good swing...he starts with a slightly open stance. Does anyone else see that? What we do see with Saunders is that his K rate has gone up despite not swinging and missing more and despite having a decent zone swing and out of zone swing rate. That would suggest that the problem is his timing...he's choosing the right pitches to swing at...but is juuuuust a bit off when he does swing...and they've getting him in between. Could the stance note I mentioned cause that?

2

Carp's shoulder injury ruined his entire year last year. Saunders looks as if he's on the same course. If that happens, I hope GMZ (or more likely, his replacement) doesn't throw Saunders away for a bag of balls in the off season.

3
Nathan H's picture

Check the back leg at follow-through. Worlds of difference. Does that happen every time?

4

Here's my less-than-valuable contribution:
1. The two swings pictures are against pitchers throwing from the opposite sides. That could account for some difference.
2. On the June follow-through, observe the left knee. It is quite bent. On the homer swing it appears his left leg straightens. I think that might indicate that his slumpy approach is more arm-ey than before. It almost looks like he's hitting a "3/4" shot in golf. Maybe he just got fooled on that swing, but he has rotated less than the tater swing, and appears more arm-ey, with less acceleration.
4. I wonder if he has over-cooked the "ki" idea, Doc. You allude to this in your last statement. It is almost as if he's doing too much of a good thing and is trying to hit soft liners to the left of 2B. The correction would be to try and punish the wall in the CF-RF gap. More acceleration, more hammer.
5. In golf, when you are slicing the ball, the fix is often to try to hook it off the planet. On the driving range, anyway. Exagerate the fix. Change the "feel." Tour-type golfers do this in their pre-shot swings, too. Both Tiger Woods and Corey Pavin commonly make exagerated swing-fixes in their pre-shot 1/4-speed practice swing. I think I would encourage Saunders in BP to hit homers over the RF fence. Golfers expect that today's fix may be tomorrow's problem. Really. I think Saunders is in that boat. It's almost as if has determined to fix this slump by taking too much of his own medicine. That is something no doc, especially our Doc, would ever prescribe.
5. Michael, be a little less Ichiro and a little more Junior and all will be well.
moe

5

Votto's quite the comparison, on any point of detail.
Agreed - you dive under the hood with Saunders, expecting to find a blown head gasket, and instead everything's lookin' pretty new.  ::headscratch::

6

If I were a pro baseball player, I'll guarantee you *absolutely guarantee you* that a scratch golfer would be part of my posse.  Where else is he going to get the kind of instruction you just gave?
I like your analysis better than mine here.  Especially the grok of the 3/4 type swing.
.............
On another front Mo'.  Would *any* scratch golfer be able to instruct an 18-handicapper?  Or are some of them more talent than technique?  Strikes me, that not just any great golfer would be able to provide what you just did.

8

On the April homer, the tape almost looks like he's dragging his back toe through as if he were a pitcher.  Wondered whether that should be included, but ... you included it.
I think it just goes to the same idea that on the April homer, he swung with more 'elan.  I like Mo's characterization of the golf 3/4 swing.
............
Now that you mention it Nathan, I'd never really noticed, but it appears that Saunders' weight needs to go (1) up the middle, not around the corner, AND (2) forward back at the pitcher.  That first home run, he has a very noticeable forward leg action.
Wow, you guys are are quite the roll...

9

Sometimes they do that deliberately, to promote keeping the front shoulder closed, etc ... does look like it is deliberate.  
What the implications are ... not sure how critical it is or isn't.  Sharp eye though.

11

I truly appreciate the Aiki-Doc evaluations when they come down the pike. "Focus your ki left," is a terrifically simple and easily envisioned bit of advice. The best golf lesons are exactly the same thing. Simple, tactile, easily "visioned."
"Finish high," "Finish left," "Hold the finish," "Hit it hard," "Waltz-tempo," "Full backswing," etc, are all much better and more effective lessons than "Drop your elbow into the slot," or "cock your wrists." Those in the first list simply ask you to do something that has a visual aspect, the others are manipulative in nature.
I long ago, when I used to compete, realized that the more simple I made stuff the more easily I could find it when lost. I actually played really well for a while just trying to imagine the plasma gun thing in Star Wars or Starship Trooper, I forget which. Mike "Radar" Reid, who was a multiple time winner on the tour putted terrifically for years trying to imagine he was putting down two rows of singing green worms. True, dat.
I took lessons from a dozen pros. But only one guy had any impact. Mostly he would watch me hit a few shots and tell me "I can't help that," and walk away. Man does that give you confidence. Or he would tell me go slow. Something weirdly simple like that. (I went to a sports psychologist for a while. We spent the whole first lesson talking about what was wrong with my life: Was I a good husband, etc. He figured that bad life carried into bad golf.)
The pros who didn't help me asked me to tweak my elbow or open the clubface, manipulative stuff.
I wasn't physically talented, and certainly not very long, but by keeping things simple I always had a bandaid for something wrong.
When I practice chipping I usually just try to swish 'em into the hole on the practice green. That's my thought, "Swish!" My body will figure out the rest.
I think most 18 Handicappers, and most golf teaching, focus on something manipulative and rarely on something able to be visioned. And usually it is two or three things at once.
Just today I listened to a pro try to help a 15 or 16 Handicapper. He had him concentrating on alignment AND swing path AND release. All of 'em.
The guy was still lost.
If you could get a bogey golfer to focus on one simple thing until he owned it...then move to the next simple, non-manipulative/non-mechanical thing, you would much more efficiently improve their game.
"Be the ball" is overly simple. But not by that much.
IMHO, of course. Which ain't worth much.
The teachings of Aiki-Doc are simple and visual things. They are potent things.
moe

12

The Swing Zone on the top is Michael Saunders during his slump, and even without seeing a lot of these you can tell he has excellent strike zone judgement, and that he swings at slightly fewer out of zone balls than the guy on the bottom during the same period.  The guy on the bottom is Joey Votto.  From May 5 to June 18, he ran a .422 OBP.  I agree Doc, Michael Saunders hasn't looked like he should be OPSing in the .400s for a month.

13

With apologies, I'll retreat to my golf background again. Almost every great putter had a slightly open to more open stance. Arnie Palmer and Bobby Locke might be the exceptions (and Palmer eventually lost his putting stroke). Nicklaus, Jones, Watson, Crenshaw, Trevino, Woods all putt/putted from an open stance. Nicklaus and George Low (regarded by some as the best putter ever) both wrote that such a stance allows you to "see" the line better. As your feet and hips open, your shoulders do, as well. That allows your head to slightly open and you get a better "view" of the line with your "back" eye (furthest from the target). You can easily simulate this by standing up at your computer and opening and closing your stance. You'll see what I mean. I've long wondered if the same is true in batting stances. Go ahead, stand there and try it. With a closed stance, if you then shut your "forward" eye, you may have a problem even seeing the imaginary pitching mound. With an open stance that is much more unlikely. Go ahead. Humor me and give it a try.
So if Saunders has closed it up, the issue may be visual. Picking the ball, and its spin, must be more difficult if you do it (initially) out of only one eye.
I've thought about this. Really. I have no life! :)
Of course, we're only looking at one picture, but I'm sure there are physiological-vision things that may come with closing your stance.
moe

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