Seattle Sports Insider

Jean Segura, 5.7-WAR SS

Let's see, 86 + 7 equals ... fill in your own punch line, Arte, Sosh

Posted by

11/24/16

Well, +5.7 if you're using baseball-reference.com. 5.0 if you're using Fangraphs. Meanwhile in 2016 the M's real-life shortstops had, on the green grass of Safeco Field, -1.2 WAR as a group:

So we are looking at +7 WAR upgrade at one position. That's a little bit like trading Seattle Sports Insider for Bill James Online.

DEREK JETER (NON-) LITE Dept.

Segura racked up 7.1 runs per 27 outs last season, as compared to Robinson Cano at 6.5 and Kyle Seager at 6.2. In fact in terms of RC/G, Robinson Cano has never had a better season than Jean Segura just had. (Well, he got 7.3 twice; I count that as "not better" in the broad sense. You take our point.)

With a .319 AVG, a .499 SLG and a 124 OPS+, we figure that Segura's 2016 would have ranked as approximately the #7 season on Derek Jeter's baseball card, out of 20 seasons.

From a "position scarcity" standpoint this is exactly what Dr. Detecto used to try for in rotisserie, to use the first three rounds to grab safe All-Stars at 2B, 3B, and SS (or C). You can then easily funge good hitters at OF and 1B as you play through the season.

The Mariners had MVP candidates at 2B and 3B and here they are slotting Nomar Garciaparra between them at SS to lead off. Wowza.

RISK FACTOR

Perhaps 2016 was an outlier? And 2014-15 are the risk outcomes?

Perhaps. But he'll be drafted by roto champs as 90%-100% the player he was in 2016, but adjusting for park. He had very good reason for the tailspin in 2014-15, and Dipoto characterizes 2016 as a return to the "true talent" arc he was on before the deflection. I think you draft that way in 2017.

Of course Segura could "sink" to a .290 AVG season with a .420 SLG or something. So that's Jeter's age-28 season. Jeter had 5.0, 5.5, 6.0 RC/27 years. Guys are up and down. If Segura gives us Zack Cozart's HI season, 's all good. He hits for average in front of this lineup, he's going to score 100 runs.

There are never any guarantees, but if you're going to trade for impact offense, within reason, this is it.

.....

My favorite stat on Segura last year was the 203 base hits that led the National League. It's not that shocking for a Mark Trumbo to go off on an "outlier" home run total, because HR/F is a luck stat. But to bang 200 singles, doubles, and homers around the park, well, not so many 200-hit men are flukes.

Riffle back through the leaderboards year-by-year. Last time somebody faked 200 hits with power?

LOOGY RULE

Personally do not buy in 100%, but Servais and Dipoto were obviously frustrated with the lefty relievers thrown at them. With this trade, asked and answered. You've got two "marquee" right hand bats in the top half, and you've got your Valencia & Co. in the bottom of it.

Will see you again when the case is sol-ved. :: clouseau ::

BILL JAMES RULE

The perfect offense: four great hitters, two right and two left. One speed guy, one doubles guy, two sluggers. We ain't far off :- ) and Dr. D is stoked. The more so, since he was about as much a fan of Nate Karns' 4.05 FIP last year as he was of Taijuan Walker's 4.99 FIP. For me, the trade of Walker ensures a good, long look at Nate Karns and that's the cherry on top of a luscious three-scoop infield sundae.

YOUR TURN NOW

Wanted to provide a trade thread. Looking forward to the edumacation.

Just in time for Thanksgiving,

Dr D

Blog:

Dr's Prognosis

Tags:

Jean Segura

Comments

Fascinating trade.

It's easy to predict Segura taking a step back next year (isn't that true of just about every player who has a breakout season, though?), but he's got a good glove for the position and fits nicely into the lineup with his pop and speed, with the added bonus being that he bats righty.

Losing Walker hurts, for sure, but his is a case of unrealized potential whereas Segura's potential is in the rearview. We've seen what he can do, and he's done it a couple of times already (3.5 WAR in 2013 and 5.0 WAR in 2016, per FanGraphs). The death of his son in 2014(?) was often discussed as a potential reason for his step backward in that year and in 2015, so there is legitimate reason to believe that the 2016 version is within the boundaries of what he can be expected to do in the future.

Fun, fun trade. Safeco traditionally swallows guys like this (~20 HR in the NL power) whole, but the plus (plus?) speed this guy brings to the table would seem to provide him with offensive options that a hitter like Cirillo, Aurilia, or their ilk don't have. Having the speed game to rely on should help keep the inevitable offensive doldrums from dragging him down like it has his predecessors.

Safeco Factor

Agreed. That would be the thing I'd watch most. We worry especially about smaller guys with backspin who pull the ball ...let's check the batted balls ...

Whew! :- ) Segura actually is a topspin hitter with lots of GB's and HR's, and he sprays the ball around the park well.

....

Can't tell you how nice it is to have you commenting Jonezie :- ) Even if you've only got time for one or two a week, keep it comin'...

Two things I like about Segura's splits last year.

No real home/away splits (.60 less iso but the same wrc+ because of that hot arizona air) and he hit better in the second half than the first. Not like in 2013 when he ambushed the league in the early going before turnin into the bum he was in '14-'15 in the second half. Roster looks purty gud now. Should still move Smith for... something? Reliever? I guess. Then sign Hammel. He's good and won't cost a draft pick, like Hill. Not quite the injury concern either. Huge fan if how Jerry decided to trade for young cheap lefties then give $8mil a year for a "big league LOOGY". Between Pazos, Kiekhefer, Zac Curtis and Paul Frye theres got to be atleast one big league LOOGY, possibly more.

3-for-3 Kraken

Like all those ideas.

2H splits for Segura: .329/.381/.572 in the second half. With no change in BABIP. He had 14 dings and 20+ doubles in the second half. Nice catch.

Sometimes you rolls them

Doc and some of you guys may remember Dan Pastorini, who used to play QB for the Houston Oilers (when there was such a thing), years ago. Played for the Raiders and other teams, too. Threw 103 TD in his career vs. 160+ Ints, back when stuff like that happened to decent QB's.

Pastorini was a sort of mad bomber, in the Daryl Lamonica mold. Remember Lamonica? Danny Boy had a dang good burner of a WR in Houston named Kenny Burroughs. Pastorini, not known as a cerebral QB, loved to chuck it long to Burroughs. Some writer in Sports illustrated once said that Pastorini would look over the field at the line of scrimmage say to himself, "I can't read this defense. I'll just throw it long to Kenny!"

I suppose you can call that a calculated-confident roll of the dice.

DiPoto just made one. This is a Billy Beane move. I imagine that there are some GM's going, "Say whaaaaaaaat??"

I don't know whether to drop my coffee cup or high five the screen. Goodness knows I love Billy Beane so maybe I should just smile and admire the DiPoto huevos.

Basically we just traded Walker AND Marte for Segura (considering that the other guys are: A. Not THAT interesting. B. We had some of them already. C. You could have got them for Deej Peterson). What was it Eliza Doolittle said? "C'mon Segura, move 'yer bloomin' arse!"

But here's what is easy to be confident in in Segura:

1. His glove doesn't go away in Safeco. Is 4.48 RF is better than Cozart's and WAY better than Marte's piddley 4.09. Over 140 starts, he may get to 50 more GB's than Marte.

2. He hits RHP better than LHP (.724 vs. .689 for his career: .900 vs. .763 in '16)

3. He's played in two hitters' parks in Chase Field and Miller Park, but he's hit as well on the road for his career as he has at home: (.717 vs. .714 and .841 vs. .892 last year). He's not band-box made.

4. He's hit 1 or 2 his whole career.

5. He steals a base. Bunches of them.

6. Figure on 40+ XB hits. Maybe 50+.and 50+ is the magic number. SS's who do that are really really special. 50+ is Top-of-his-Game Jeter territory. You've got to get close to 80 to get into Garciaparra territory, however.

There is much to like here.

However, despite the tragedy, you have to say he's been inconsistent and the homer surge may be temporary. But lots of players learn to become poachers after a few years and pick their pitch to ride. Oh, btw...he goes away in two years. Although were I DiPoto, I would look to extend a couple of years right now. Pay him the $11M up front. We don't have anybody in the wings, really, anyway. You rolled the dice, so pay him to keep him for 4.

And you may have noticed that we have a (possible) hole in our rotation now. There must be another move to come. I like Miranda more than Karns (Begging Doc's forgiveness....but I have a soft-spot for screwy Cuban LH'ers. Always liked Tiant and The Old Man and the Sea, too) but not quite as much as Walker. Either of those guys may be as reliable as Walker over the next 4 seasons, but Walker is going to have a #3 in the Cy vote season soon. Maybe just the one...but it would be nice to have that.

So here we go. I think there is another rotation move that DiPoto must make. It is going to be an excitinig ride.

Our GM just told his inner-Beane to take over for a bit and make this call. (Mixing metaphors) He just went all Pastorini on us and said, "I can't read this! I'm just going to chuck it long to Segura!"

Go team.

Moe

My most vivid memory of Pastorini

The way he loved to throw the ball with all his might, any excuse he got. :- ) I'd call this trade a 60 MPH throw on a slant pattern ...

....

Good point too on the splits vs RHP's. You gotta like the "solidness" of this guy's 2016 the more you look at it.

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I share your soft spot for Cuban-style pitching. I have since the 1975 Series ... now if we can only get Miranda to do the little jiggle-ratchet glove down the flagpole before the pitch...

Other points to consider

When looking at Segura, other points that stick out for 2016 and going forward....

The good (?) - Segura's position in Arizona was 2nd base versus SS could be interesting but... However, Arizona put confidence in Segura, and he responded... a point to really consider if Dipoto takes on Moe's idea of an extension now.

The bad(?) - Segura had a very high BABIP in 2016 so whether or not he can continue at that pace is a question

The ugly (?) - Segura supposedly dedicated 2016 to his lost child, and thus made changes to improve himself versus wallowing in the past. Hopefully, he can take that dedication and keep learning from the leaders here in Seattle - Edgar, Cano, Cruz and Seager.

Segura's .353 BABIP last year

We'll all be watching that. /cosign.

Minor sabermetric note, if you have a FAST right hand batter who hits the ball hard and keeps the ball on the ground, high BABIP's aren't unusual. Trout had a .371 BABIP last year and it is .360 lifetime. If Segura hits the ball well and his legs are healthy he should BABIP .330 or more.

Let's call him The Cactus

Segura is a majestic form of cactus that gets in lots of art, and can sting an opponent.

This seems like Plan B to me. The Morosi comment a couple days ago about MC Clutch trade "not advancing" furthers my belief that Tie One On was on his way out of Seattle, but, whatever other ship Huntington wanted from DePoet to complete Plan A was simply not available (you could spell that Lewis, Gohara, Diaz, or Voksomething).

So, Plan B delivered M's admitted huge need for SS and leadoff guy ... that's like a two for one.

More importantly, this is a message from the guys running the boat that you are either on, and listening to what we are saying, or off.

This could have been as much Andy McKay as Servais or someone on the bench as much as something on a stat sheet ... i.e. Walker's problem (and this probably applies to Marte as well) was in their heads, not in their bodies.

They preferred Plan B, fulfilling needs, to Walker refusing to wear sunglasses while driving every fifth day.

The message: you are all in, or you might get offed.

Certainly they have more outfield contestants than the opening round of "So You Think You Can Dance".

Wha hapnin next?

Trade for strong SP (could S. Smith and Cishek or ____ go in such a deal)?

Flexible bullpen lefty (or they could grab somebody from Rule 5 in a couple weeks)?

One big OF (for I don't know who)?

DePoet continues to stack the next man up on deck clear the decks and keep your bags packed.

I hope everyone has a warm and fulfilling Thanksgiving as our appetizer was served up by the GM hisself ... a picture with a colorful charismatic cactus as another centerpiece crowding the table.

zoom

And a message to Reds-style trading pardners?

Fish or cut bait? Just 'cause we make you a nice offer don' mean we're gonna cool our heels until you're good and ready?

....

Tremendous observation on Walker's coachability. They worked through that graciously in 2016, but we notice the kid is front-and-center when it comes time for trade talx. Another nice call on your part, tagging Taijuan for termination this winter. +2

Curious Statement

One statement from DiPoto stuck out to me. Talking about the starting pitching depth:

“We are going to look at the free agent market,” he said. “We are certainly not opposed at potential for trades. We still feel like in the big picture that we are 10-11 deep with guys that we feel secure in starting a Major League game. We are comfortable with that group, but we’d like to augment it."

10-11 deep? With guys he would be "secure" in starting MLB games? Is he just glad-handing here? I'm not sure I'm secure with the top 5.

He didn't say THIS year...

So maybe he means Gohara and Neidert and Moore in 2021. ;) I'm with you - they have work to do there. They chose to keep Paxton over Walker, though. Apparently they looked at FIP too. Paxton is not exactly a paragon of health, though, so the Ms need to be 7 or 8 deep. They just traded Blackburn, so they lost that card.

Moore is on the list. Andrew could make the jump in a pinch - he's definitely a professional pitch-thrower. Yarbrough is probably on his list. But I don't get to 11 dudes either. His math is a little suspect.

To free agency!

Love it

Dipoto seeing the damage Jose Altuve can do goes and gets us an answer.

Neither of the other guys appear to be throw-ins either. Haniger looks better than Gamel or Heredia in my opinion.

Of course, he bombed in his debut, and we see what value Romero holds. So, could go either way, but I think Walker is a mental midget. Too mentally weak to even pitch from the windup, right?

I'm excited to see how this turns out!

I do like the Altuve-lite paradigm :- )

Right hand leadoff hitter with 200 hits, who doesn't walk much but has nice pop. It's a funky kind of leadoff hitter, one who is either MORE valuable or LESS valuable than an OBP/SB guy depending on whether he is stinging the ball that week.

Cano/Segura connection

Interesting article from April where Segura partially credits Robinson Cano for helping get his hitting back on track. Now he gets to be his double-play partner. I like the chances of this working out better now - he has to be so psyched.

Segura has called Cano an “angel” for helping him.

“He treat me like a brother and give me the support that nobody gave to me when I’m struggling,” Segura said. “It was huge for me. All I have right now is just for him. He’s a great man.”

I say just stick their lockers next to each other and let it play out.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/mlb/diamondbacks/2016/04/11/dbacks...

LOL yeah I was wondering when that would come up

Segura is from the Dominican too. Cano is like his big brother / mentor / idol. We're basically the perfect landing spot for him to replicate last year's success, if that can be done. Lots of calculations go into these things. I hope DiPoto's math is perfect.

Dominican Republic WBC Chess Set

Losing track of who-all Seattle has collected. I guess with Marte and Rodney gone it's down to Cano and Boomstick that I know of, but am sure we're missing a couple... hm, Caminero and Aro are from the DR also but we'll have to lean on our superstars for Segura-comfort...

Had thought for some reason that King Leonydas was from the DR but he's one of our three players from Kooba, isn't he.

Sale

Tank O'Neill, D.J. Peterson, Gohara ++.

Throw anything in the minors you need at the Sox and pull Chris Sale.

If any of our guys turn into stars, you tip your cap to the Sox and go home to polish your World Series ring.

Now THAT would be all-in

You'd probably get Lou Piniella jumping up off the couch to manage us...

Tank

Listening to a podcast convo with Drayer, she pointed out Tank's big year and explored dipoto's thought process on Tank's proximity to the big club. Dipoto gushed, and MADE A POINT for us all to notice how other clubs like him a lot more now too. He's definitely on the table. I think the JeDI is still working on finding a RH outfielder (Ozuna) and 1B (Napoli), and he would be crazy not to get a legit TOR SP (Sale). If you're trying to get a WS ring, you dont settle for wait and see projects like Hanigan Gamel, Shaefer, and Bach; these are all insurance pieces-depth and backups with high upside to keep the floor from cratering and to give you a draw at the chance you've found your next starter. They can also be trade fodder, but I would be very surprised if they are plan A, and very surprised if there are any untouchables. JeDI is pretty confident he can turn a penny into a dime which gives him no fear when trading his dimes.

Segura doesn't have be a 7 WAR improvement to be worth it

If he just replicates his first year of 105 OPS+ he'll be a vast improvement on the SS sinkhole. I don't expect him to hit 20 homers here, especially because I can't guarantee the ball is going to be juiced again, but his hitting was razor-sharp for the season. Yes, Segura got "lucky" in BABIP last year. Altuve gets "lucky" in BABIP every year, as did Edgar. Segura's career BABIP is .314 - he's had multiple "luck years" which means they might not be just luck after all.

Pitching is volatile, and Taijuan has already had multiple injury concerns (shoulder, then foot). DiPoto cashed him in - these things happen. I tend not to like buying players based off a career year, but if somebody had offered me Jose Altuve after his breakout age-24 year I would have assumed he'd fall back to around that 105 OPS+ original landing year that both he and Segura had. Segura made mechanical changes that allowed him to have more success, and has his head back in the game.

It's a scouting call on Segura, whom DiPoto has known for a while. The Mariners sent out the most valuable piece in the deal, which is why they got 3 players back. If DiPoto is right on Segura it will be a thing of beauty even if Jean's defense isn't world-class at SS. Jeter's wasn't either, and neither was Marte's by a long shot.

Seattle's infield could be really special next year. If Zunino just hits .250 it would be pretty amazing. And their outfield got more interesting by adding Haniger too. Mitch was a first-round pick - it's not like people didn't see talent in him, he just got slowed by wrist injuries. If DJ Peterson put up the last year that Haniger did we'd we losing our minds about it. And again - he doesn't HAVE to hit like Matt Carpenter for it to be a good add. Nori Aoki hit .280 /.350 /.390, and in CF Leonys Martin put up his standard .250 /.300/ .380. I think Haniger can play CF, so that's the bar.

He's another guy that processed some swing changes and reaped the rewards. We have a batting coach who seems to get the best out of his players, and interestingly we dump the ones he DOESN'T get more out of. If the Mariners have implemented some sort of Edgar Rule, where if he can't fix you then you can't be fixed, I'll be even more impressed.

I like Haniger more than Gamel, I think that's obvious. But DiPoto didn't go either or, he added both and some other bats like Vogelbach and even Shaffer besides. He kept O'Neill. He wants a wealth of MLB-ready youngsters to choose from, and now he has them. He added a SS hitting star and a cheap scrub who could wind up being a starter-quality hitter.

Walker was a steep price but at least this time the Montero-level bat is the throw-in.

And did anybody mention that Segura is Dominican, like Cano and Cruz? If comfort level is important, then they should help make the kid as comfortable in the unfriendly confines of Safeco as he can possibly be. I've said before that DiPoto needed a signature move. This would be the first major bet he's placed. I hope it pays off because it could be great for us.

And now we need a bit more pitching. Where's Mike Montgomery when you need him? Oh that's right - hi Vogelbach!

Man, I hope a couple of these kids can really hit...

Trade!

Thumbs Up!

Everyone have a great Thanksgiving!!!!

Geez, Jerry . . .

. . . take a day off! I was just about halfway through processing last week's trades.

Free-wheelin' Jerry

I know and he's probably just getting started. This dude could still turn over 1/4 of the current 40-man before pitchers and catchers report!

I love this deal. Extend the

I love this deal. Extend the man now you may be able to lock him up cheap.

Swing change and better in the 2nd half, support system in Seattle with Cano and Edgar.

There is some risk, but much better than letting him have a solid season and pricing himself out of town.

Great idea. Suggested offer?

Buy out his arb years and grab 2-3 of his FA years for how much? We've got a young, talented SS to put next to Seager and I'm likin' the idea of keeping him there...

Don't know of any blue-chip SS's we've got that we'd be blocking, either.

<comment is me above

I would say 5/$60~70 or so. For a guy like that, that has struggled in life I think he wants security.

Thats peanuts, even for an average SS, and Segura was much better than average last year.

Just lock the man up. His swing is more valuable in a pitcher's park and hes a solid defensive SS.

The 14-15 seasons are depressing his value, one more solid season and his price goes up exponentially.

It is peanuts

Next year they say $7-8M in arb, so what, $12M after that ... $20M is the arb money he can count on so far. Then at 3/$50 we'd be offering him $16-17M per, for his first three FA seasons. Tough to see him accepting that. But, as you say, the first $70-80M is worth a lot more than the $70-80M to follow...

Kyle Seager accepted 7/$100M from a better position than Segura's in now. So 5/$70-80M is worth putting on the table, anyway...

Hidden bonus

Even if they can't get an extension with Segura, he seems like a good candidate to be worth a qualifying offer in a couple years to gain a comp draft pick, if the rule still applies then.

4x$50M

Will get it done.

Right now the guy is guaranteed $7M+ (In 2017 Arb). $43 guaranteed million is hard to walk away from.

Deal

With apologies! For exploiting a poor D.R. refugee!

BTW,

Has anybody read any Arizona-type discussion why Segura went to 2B last year?

Ahmed is a guy with extraordinary range at SS (4.8 the last two years) but injury let him start only 80 games in '16. 4.8 is Brendan Ryan stuff. Ahmed's .560 bat is below the Ryan Line, however. Chris Owings got most of the rest of the SS starts, his .731 bat being a factor, but his 4.0 range is pretty abysmal.

Segura only had 9 starts at SS. I wonder if the idea was that his bat was playing so well at 2B that they were just going to let him stay there and mash?

And then you have to ask whether the move to 2B took some pressure off him (somehow) and was part of the reason he ripped the ball?

Here's very interesting analysis of Segura from last February, when Arizona acquired him. The Batted-Ball chart is pretty cool. RF-RF-CF-Rf....that's where he earns his keep. http://insidethezona.com/2016/02/jean-segura-diamondbacks-trade-brewers-...

And heres his spray chart from 2016: Not much change: http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=5933&position=SS&type...

Segura can run (44 SB's in '13 and 33 last year) so he should have a decent BABIP. In '13 he was at .326 ("normal", let's say) and he was .353 last year. His '14 and '15 seasons saw his BABIP fall to .275 and .298.

He shouldn't fall below .300 many times. He'll be fine and dandy for us. He was a lead off hitter last year and was great. I like him better between two LHB's nad hitting #2, but I hate Martin at the top of the order so we would have to lead off Gamel (or Vogs...and I don't hate that idea) to make that work. So he will lead off for us.

I like him. I'm not betting he bashes like he did last year....but if he falls all the way back to .290-.330-.425 (about '13) then he's a heck of a MLB SS.

Go kid.