1
By the way, does anybody have a preference for-or-against posts that are based on replying to posters' thoughts, like this one?
Preferred, disliked, or don't care?
Ackley's Plateau-Consolidation Cycles (2)
.
But, Ackley's trip doesn't end there. AFTER maximizing his walks - and maximizing his BA - THEN, he'll look into increasing his power. This is precisely what he did at Carolina. It is predictable, because (like all humans), he is going to continue utilizing previous approaches that have worked until they stop working.
Couldn't agree more with the plateau-consolidation cycle you mention. For those who are doing it right, that is!
You can compare a weekend golfer who takes out a 3-iron, first tee, and a short backswing -- as he starts making consistent contact, he starts to pull the backswing higher ...
This is what was behind the M's thought on Justin Smoak, "cutting down his swing" a little to get him on track. Am 101% sure that it's just a temporary checkpoint...
...............
And as far as finishing with power... checked it last night and couldn't believe (had forgotten) that Ackley had hit 22 homers in 260 AB's his senior year.
What are we talking about, is he capable of 15 dings in 162 games?!
I haven't researched it. Does anybody hit 45 homers per 550 AB's in CWS ball, and then 6 homers in the majors (despite becoming a star)? Somebody look that up?
Did any of the 6-homer table setters, now in the bigs, hit 22 homers in 260 AB's in college?
.
The SCARY future is -- given a 100 patience baseline -- and let's imagine - a .280 average. That's a nice .380 OBP -- but likely very little pop. After he's comfortable at that stage, THEN he jumps from Ichiro power to Gutierrez power, (or he might only move to Kotchman power initially). The key is, when he DOES add some HRs to his .280/.380 line, the competition gets a little more leary of challenging him -- and the likely result of that is a jump from 100 patience to 130 patience and you've got Bobby Abreu playing 2B for you at that point.
As G puts it "with any staying power at all" you're talking about a Hall of Fame level player in that UP scenario.
As anybody could pipe in, "let's see him make the traveling squad first" ... sure, sure, but San's talking projectable power...
.
The "likely" path for Ackley is one where he "gradually" moves from good to very good to sensational over a period of 3-5 years.
Which would be true of, say, Adrian Gonzalez. Some guys are like Manny, and just fall out of the minor leagues stylin'. Other guys just get better each year. Edgar, AGone, hopefully Ackley...
.
My only hope is that if he's "only" a .340 OBP guy his first year, or if he follows up a good year with a bad year the fans (and press) don't get overly absorbed in what he is NOT. He's *NOT* an athletic freak like Griffey or AROD. The reality is he is way more Kotchman than Griffey (from an purely athletic perspective). But, that's not a bad thing. Ackley's gift is his mental toughness - and ultimately, that is Kotchman's burden, and why he failed - and why Ackley will succeed.
Oh, they will... :- )
Dr. D is a huge believer in Shandler's Post-Hype Syndrome. It's practically the only edge I got left in roto, cause none of us can resist bailing on the Justin Smoaks of the game. Not if their first half-season looks ugly.
Hard enough for fans -- present company excepted -- to stick with a great talent through two months, much less through two years. And it's true that sometimes you can stick with a Lopez or Betancourt too long...
...........
"Only" .340 OBP in Safeco, as a rookie, would be well above average and fans would be cool with that, no doubt. Which would mirror his AAA line as a pro rookie: .275/.340/.440 at Tacoma. After three months as a pro.
Ackley has never hit .189 for any length of time in any new league, and we're sure he will hit .270 pretty quickly in the AL also.
This is one rook who will deliver a certain amount of instant gratification. But as San-Man will hopefully remind along the way, good performances aren't going to cap him out...
.
::golfclap::,
Jeff
Comments
2
Stick his locker next to Ichiro, please.
3
Joe Morgan, Rookie year, 1965: .271-.373-.418 14 HR's
Joe Morgan, Third year, 1967: .275-.378-.411 6 HR's
Joe Morgan, Sixth Year, 1970: .268-.383-.396 8 HR's
Composite (if PA's were equal during each season..they weren't..but it is close)
.270-.378-.410 9 HR's
What do you think? Does Ackley better that during his rookie or 2nd season? I'm willing to be that during the post-All Star portion of 2011 Ackley's numbers aren't too far from that.
Will he be another Morgan? Nope (Hey, Morgan had 6 seasons in a row where his OBP ranged from .406-.466! And he hit more than 20 taters in all but one of those seasons. And he won 5 Gold Gloves in those 6 seasons. And he won two MVP's!!!) Ackley won't be Morgan. But he'll be pretty dang good...pretty dang soon.
4
nm
5
Was the equivalent of 310/420/500 in Cleveland or Milwaukee these days. :- )
Translated, Little Joe hit 20-38 homers in twelve different seasons...
...................
Morgan is probably an example of a plateau-consolidate player. He leaped a big plateau at 28, and leaped another big one at 31.
6
Good point. It took a special hitter to mash in the Astrodome (see Jimmy Wynn). How much more detrimental was the Astrodome to hitters than Safeco is?
and I still think the raw numbers of .270-.370-.410 are reachable in the 2nd half of Ackley's rookie season.
7
Ackley still on a tear. He goes 3 for 5 tonight with 2 doubles. He leads the league in OBP at .557 & leads the league in slugging as well with a gaudy .756 giving him a monster OPS of 1.313. His OBP isn't just a product of base on balls either as his batting average is third in the league at .422. Yea I know it's fall ball where the hitting numbers are usually better. But still, it makes your heart thump a little bit. I'm guessing they see a greater proportion of fast balls with all of the relief type pitchers down there. Tom Wilhelmsen still holding his own. Second in WHIP and a quick glance with out doing the math tells me he leads in K/9 as well. Not sure if he's all fast ball or if he throws the curve for strikes. Would like to see him pitch.
8
Is that he was a baseball knowledge sponge while still a teen.
Baseball history (and brain chemistry) both confirm that the brain doesn't finish maturing until around age 25. While I'm perfectly willing to wait for Ackley to methodically step through his study, adjust, grow, settle, (repeat), cycle - and that it "may" take 3-5 years. The upside is that what took him a year at a time to do in college "MAY" only take him 6-8 weeks in the majors - based on the concept of better tools and coaches - fewer distractions, (baseball players aren't allowed to snooze thru college like certain football players are - (gggrrrr).
So, while it might take Ackley 3-5 years to jump from single-digit HR power to 20-something. It would not be shocking to see him take all the MLB tools available and massively accellerate his development path.
In todays game, Albert Pujols is probably the best example of BOTH the physical freak and the cerebral student of the game in one body. Even as a rookie, Pujols would dismantle every at-bat he had in the majors - and could figure out not only what went wrong, but what he needed to do to prevent it from happening by his next up.
Ackley doesn't have the physical abilities that Pujols does -- (few do) -- but does have that kind of mental focus.
Of course, there are also examples of the extra tools "undoing" a good hitter. I've read that Cust practically became addicted to in-game video review - ultimately to his detriment. Find the BALANCE of adjustment vs. consistency is the trick. But, I think that is an extreme remote possibility in regards to Ackley.