... "With Number Five Control"
One thing getting in the way

.

On pitches 1 and 2, James Paxton looked like every Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson or Roger Clemens he's ever winced over.  Play ball, Strike one, Strike two, two different pitches, easy tempo, it's gonna be a looooooooong niiiiiight.

Then on pitch three, uhhhhh ... oh, man.   On pitch four, more of the same.  In fact, for the rest of the game K-Pax insisted on planting that lead foot short, impaling himself on the front leg, and totally ruining what should have been a very glorious evening.

Dr. D objects to a stiff front knee in principle, as should anybody with a basic knowledge of weight transfer.  But with James Paxton this problem is absolutely 100% beyond discussion. Paxton throws the front pelvis forward, accelerates his weight SHARPLY forward.  AND AS A SEPARATE ISSUE he rocks back in Lincecum style, arcs over the top, and comes downhill very hard.

.

Paxton's delivery repeated perfectly, time after time ... right up until foot plant.  And then he never planted the foot the same way twice.  He slammed the weight into the front knee, actually hyperextending it and BANGING the knee joint harshly.  

You could see his torso jerk around every which way -- sometimes he finished more upright, sometimes more leaned over.  And, grotesquely, sometimes he finished leaning to the 3B side and sometimes down the centerline.

.............

Now here's a pop quiz:  Do you let go of the baseball before, or after, your foot plant?  :- )

Paxton lets go of the baseball juuust as his weight crashes UNPREDICTABLY into his front leg.  And you can see the inconsistency in the way his torso finishes.

............

So why don't pro scouts simply report, "Needs to fix deceleration, then will star in the big leagues"?  Why do they say "Number one stuff, number five command" when they know that young pitchers have motions that are works in progress?

You tell me.

............

There are four potential fixes here.

One, that Paxton will learn to work around his ugly front leg, as many ML pitchers do.  It could be that his being out-of-synch, late in the year, was exacerbating the problem.  

Two, the problem could fix itself if he had a physical problem in 2012.  Could be he was a little out of shape, or something.  In the first picture leading this series, the one in the bullpen, Paxton was stepping out fine (although his toe is pointed in, which would lock his front knee for that reason).  Could be that the pain in his knee (which DL'ed him in 2012) has caused the bad habit of stepping short, and that once the knee feels better he'll step out again.

Three, that the Mariners could actively teach Paxton to land on his toe, opening up his knee.  The Royals did this for Gil Meche, and it took them about four games to do it.

Four, that Paxton could become more athletic, lighter on his feet.  A man who has great power-to-weight ratio has an easy time stepping nimbly out in front -- enjoys stepping nimbly out in front.  Tim Lincecum throws downhill, too, but he gets that front foot out there nicely so that he can decelerate over it.

A short front foot?  That's 'cause you're doggin' it, man.  Don't be lazy.

............

Hey.  Six inches' worth of extension on the front foot is all that's standing between James Paxton and being the AL Rookie of the Year.  If you don't want to coach him past it, have him do a round of P90X.

BABVA,

Dr D 

 

Comments

1

Using my little stat doohickeys.  First number measures "stuff"; second number measures "command/control":
2011:  .374/ -3.67
2012 pre-DL:  .316/  +2.34
2012 post-DL:  .362/ -3.03
I know the numbers aren't real intuitive, but on the first number higher is better and on the second number, the more negative the better.
"Stuff" measures what percent of "random-y" balls in play hitters would need to convert to singles to reach a .700 OPS against.  Over .300 is good.  Way over .300 is awesome.
My "command/control" thingy tries to measure the ability to avoid balls and "hitter's pitches" while thowing strikes and "pitcher's pitches."  A positive number means giving advantage to hitters and a negative number means taking advantage away from hitters.  A negative number over -1.5 is good, and over -3 is awesome.
[Felix in MLB was .354/-3.93.  Brandon Maurer, a very good, but not tip-top prospect: .318/-1.78.  Erasmo: .301/-2.48.  Jose Campos in 2011 was death to hitters:  .370/-6.36.]
During his "wobbly knee" period, Paxton was, on average, "losing" plate appearances to the hitters by giving them either balls or pitches they could hit with authority.  But, despite the lack of command/control, he was still limiting the hitters' production with his stuff, such that he was still over .300 on that scale.
Post-DL he was back to pretty much exactly where he was in 2011.
In short, if you exclude the pre-DL period, Paxton's walks are like Giancarlo Stanton's strikeouts.  They don't deny the greatness.  He still scores very high on "command/control" because even with high-ish walks he never gives the hitter anything to hit with authority; when he has to come into the zone, he rarely serves up meatballs.
I think all questions about Paxton were answered by the way he came back from the DL, and the fact that he "wasn't right" during the pre-DL period in 2012.

2

Same thing in the Rising Stars game .... he had one dude 2-2, painted the outside corner, beautiful pitch, the ump blew the call (as minors umps will when the pitcher is erratic) ... On a 3-2 pitch the lefty bounced one three yards to the SS's left who outrageously couldn't get to it.
A righty topped a ball past the SS again, there was a walk, and boom, the bases were loaded and nobody had made decent contact.  JUST like the 1990 Randy Johnson.  He'd lose games and one ball would be hit hard the whole night.  But it didn't blind anybody to what he was going to be.
Great splits ... would like to know more about your stat doohickeys Spec.
Edit:  check me.  You've got it up at the Stalk.  Gracias.

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