The last few days, with Dr. D skulking about involved in various unwholesome non-baseball activities, the blog-o-sphere balanced SSI's shtick by framing a "slow down theyah ponderosa" argument against Kelley's conversion to starting pitcher.  Well, not an argument, more like a caution not to get too jazzed.

No point in countering that, because you know and I know that the Mariners very probably won't convert Kelley to the rotation.  :- )  SSI asserts only that it would convert Kelley to the rotation.  That the Mariners are thinking about thinking about it is the second-best news this spring, after the news that we'd play the Padres 19 times, of course.

So, more in the spirit of roundtable, here are my ping-pongs off of the cautions against the idea of starting Kelley:

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Q.  The M's have built their bullpen around Kelly, in part, right?

A.  No question that the bullpen would take a hit.  Two-and-a-half pennant-caliber relievers aren't enough.  The 4th and 5th arms will be deciding games against the Angels and Rangers.

And I don't care for those 4th and 5th arms, at least not yet.  To me the dropoff after Lowe-Kelley-League-("closer") and the next guy, is vast.

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Q.  So how can you justify weakening the bullpen?

A.  First, because you strengthen the rotation.  

Second, because we don't know what the M's will come up with in the 4 and 5 slots.  Last year, I thought the entire bullpen could easily wind up in a Bobby Ayala / Scott Sanders mode.  But Wakamatsu used ham hocks, collard greens and a leftover Sugar Pops box top to create a deep-dish lasagna.

In Kelley's absence, Wok would probably bake another lasagna.  He's got 412 pitchers to choose from.

We've got to give Wok some credit and assume that he'll figure out something in the 4 and 5 slots.   .... but even if he didn't, you still weigh the bullpen hit against a rotation boost.

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Q.  How do you weigh the two?   How do you figure out what Kelley costs them as a RP vs what he will gain them as an SP?

A.  It says that of the 120+ starters who fired 100 innings in 2009, 60% of them earned 2.0 WAR or more.

Dunno how precise that stat is, and it doesn't matter.  We all know that starters -- in the abstract -- are much more valuable than relievers. 

In fact, because of this SP >>>>> RP principle, some analysts panned the League-Morrow trade even though Brandon Morrow is a very questionable SP and Brandon League is a spectacular reliever.

The math will get real complicated real fast, as you figure [Delta Kelley RP over #4 RP] against [Delta Kelley vs Vargas] and [#6 RP increased innings] vs [Vargas IP in pen] and so on and so forth.

But SIMPLIFY and CLARIFY.  After the second- and third-order deltas in the math spin madly out of your grasp, you still want your best pitchers throwing the most innings.  Capiche?  :- )

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Q.  OK, do you gain or lose more than typical?

A.  If this club had Bedard-Washburn three and four, we wouldn't be having this conversation.

This club has serious issues at 3.5, 4, and 5.  This club happens to have a scintillating candidate for SP conversion. 

This club, IMHO, has more to gain from a successful Kelley conversion than most clubs would have to gain.  And since obtaining League and Wakamatsu and the 300 helmets, it probably will lose less than the average club would lose.

Last year, I wouldn't have recommended moving Kelley.  This year, though?  How many runs are the scrubs going to give up tomorrow?

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Part 2