Malcontent's article on Casey Kotchman is a model of what a minority report should be:  data-rich, logical, compelling ... and with a snark mg/dl of 0.

Not only Dr. D, but the admins as well, dearly value this sort of think-tank dynamic, one which has driven the frictionless idea exchange at DOV, MC, and SSI for a few years now. 

That is what social media in the 21st century will be:  news and analysis in the hands of 7 billion people, with droves of 'net denizens migrating to the places (SSI notwithstanding!) that house the most ideas and the least agenda warp.

Does Dr. D place a bid on Malcontent's eBay auction listing for Casey Kotchman?

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I/O:  Malcontent points out that in 2007-09, Casey hit 22-of-32 homers on the road.  Ergo, he should hit well in Safeco.

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CRUNCH:  This could have some direct effect, but I personally wouldn't exaggerate how tough it is to hit RF homers in Anaheim, nor how "easy" it is in Safeco.

Stats aside, I don't think we're talking about radical differences.  Griffey left a lot of his best shots on the warning track in Safeco.  Watching games there, I don't see a 1992 Kingdome Redux.  Now, that was an easy park to go RF yard in :- )

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What does intrigue me, is the conditioning effect that the park could have on Kotchman.  Could he pop a half-dozen over, then start turning on the ball, then pitchers start walking him some?

Totally reasonable to hope for this.  All things considered, I don't like Kotch's chances to achieve this.  Could be wrong.

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I/O Malcontent:  Kotchman is scouted as having good speed for a 1B.

CRUNCH:  Yes, and James confirmed that in the Baker interview:  "runs very well for a first baseman."

Would seem logical that it would keep him out of some GIDP's, especially with the ball bouncing two-hop to either side of the SS.   But his GIDP rate hasn't shown this...

Actually, maybe it does.  Maybe he should have been hitting into 25 GIDP's per year, and only gets 17 because he beats out 8 of them on the relay.

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I/O Malcontent:  Kotchman's 2007-90 GB/FB ratio is much lower on the road than home.  Maybe this is because he was discouraged by his warning-track power in his home parks.

CRUNCH:  Brilliant!  :guinness:   This could easily be the, um, case. 

So, watch Kotchman's GB rate in April and May for us, Mal.  If he pops a few HR's and his LD/FB rate is up, well, slap me silly.  That would be one of the requisites for an UP year.

Realllllllllllly nice catch there, dude.

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Bear in mind that the Mariners are hammering it into Kotchman's head that they want him to stop swinging for power, and just concentrate on contact (read: singles).  Admittedly, they think this will actually promote HR's occurring "naturally."

Complaint:  for Kotchman, hitting-for-contact means waiting on the ball and going the other way.  With his static weight transfer, no way he gets the ball over the fence without getting the bathead out in front.

But, whatever...

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I/O Malcontent:  Two guys with Kotchman's physique, EYE, and GB tendencies are Sean Casey and Joe Mauer. 

CRUNCH:  I'm out of goof-off... er, baseball-resarch time for the moment.  Maybe one of you crack analysts, Matt or Taro or whoever, could mosh off Mal's suggestions here, or jemanji will mosh it later...

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I/O Malcontent:  Kotchman could OPS+ 900 like Sean Casey and Joe Mauer wound up doing.

CRUNCH:  That would be all right with me.  Especially in view of the screaming gutworm pain it would give the rodent Angels.

Cheers,

Dr D